Yesterday was a roaring success for DFS NFL, as we all nailed our lineups, and it was highlighted by our own KJ, who took down the $25 GPP on Yahoo for a clean 10K win. Let’s keep the momentum going in baseball today, as we have have a 10-game slate with a solid mix of pitching and offense (Coors?). My schedule is wonky today with volleyball, but I’ll be on chat a little early and will have to cut out before first pitch. The boys will take you there the rest of the way, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.
Jacob deGrom, NYM ($11,800)
I literally have deGrom and Kluber dead even today, so I’m siding with the discount on deGrom with every dollar counting. Kluber likely has more K upside than deGrom in this one with the way the Rays have set their lineups recently, but how do you fade a guy who has allowed three runs or less in 25 straight starts? He is as money in the bank as pitchers come this year, and if I’m getting him at a discount to anyone, that’s the route I’m going. Miami also ranks 28th in wRC+ against RHP this season.
Other options – Corey Kluber (clear choice on DK, by the way), JA Happ
Jake Junis, KC ($7900)
Junis has been one of my main attack points for hitters this year, but he’s quietly turned things around in the second half. He’s coming off two gems, and he’s struck out at least five batters in seven straight starts, including seven strikeouts in three of those games. The White Sox represents a solid matchup with the third highest K rate against RHP, and the temperatures are way down across the country. Junis is a way to stack Coors, or any other high-powered offense you want in GPPs.
Other options – German Marquez, Lucas Giolito, Sean Newcomb, Kyle Gibson
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI ($4800)
I have to say this pick is plaguing me a little. Goldy in Coors looks like the clear way to go, and he has a .389 wOBA, .241 ISO, and 45% HHR this season against same-handed pitching. However, German Marquez has been no joke, especially against RHB where he’s posted a 2.90 xFIP to go along with an elite 34% K rate. Ultimately I think Goldschmidt’s talent wins the day here and you can play him in any format, but he’s certainly not the cash lock you’d expect him to be.
Other options – Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Jesus Aguilar
Carlos Santana, PHI ($2900)
I admit I was happier using Santana when Tanner Roark was the scheduled starter due to Santana’s propensity to murder sinker ball pitchers. That aside, he’s still a great value (likely leading off) against Erick Fedde tonight. Fedde profiles a similar way to Roark as an extreme GB pitcher, but Santana has an elite .588 xwOBA against right-handed sinkers this season. I think you can safely bypass the Goldy conundrum in cash tonight with Santana looming as such a positive value.
Other options – Ryan O’Hearn, Luke Voit, Tyler Austin, Jefry Marte
Catcher values – Gary Sanchez, Wilson Ramos, Willson Contreras, Salvador Perez
Whit Merrifield, KC ($3600)
I love Merrifield tonight. I understand that Lucas Giolito has improved a great deal in the second half, but he’s still the worst pitcher in baseball as far as SBs allowed this year (22). Whit has been consistently getting on base and has eight stolen bases in the last month of play. It also helps that he’ll lead off, and Giolito has a 5.27 FIP against RHB this year.
Other options – Gleyber Torres, Rougned Odor, Daniel DeScalso, DJ LeMahieu
Cesar Hernandez, PHI ($2400)
Cesar is a lineup dependent play, as we’ve seen him hit both first and ninth in recent days. Roman Quinn is battling a foot injury so it’s likely Cesar would get a good spot if Quinn isn’t able to go, and he’s a great contact hitter that offers a solid floor for cash (even though his GPP upside is very limited). On a slate where Kluber or deGrom are cash priorities, plays like Cesar may go a long way in lineup building.
Other options – Ketel Marte, Yoan Moncada, Logan Forsythe
Kris Bryant, CHC ($4000)
I had Arenado all queued up here, but I have to give Bryant the edge since Arenado is facing an above-average righty (even with the Coors effect in play). The weather has cooled in Chicago and the Cubs only have an IRT of 4.3 runs, but Bryant has destroyed LHP this season for a .467 wOBA and .388 ISO. Wade Miley has performed well for the Brewers this year, but he’s still allowed a 37% HHR to RHB over the past three years. I assume Arenado to be the higher owned player, but I’m on a limb here saying Bryant is the better one, and he’d be my choice.
Other options – Nolan Arenado, Jose Ramirez, Matt Carpenter, Eduardo Escobar, Miguel Andujar
Yolmer Sanchez, CHW ($3100)
I mentioned that I like Jake Junis as a GPP play this evening, but that doesn’t mean you can’t use White Sox tonight either. Junis has been very vulnerable to power this year, allowing 1.58 HR/9, and he’s also given up a 38% HHR to LHB. Sanchez would also maintain the platoon edge in the Royals bullpen that’s ranked dead last in FIP (and it’s really not close).
Other options – Miguel Sano, Evan Longoria, Todd Frazier
Javier Baez, CHC ($3900)
This pick largely mimics the Kris Bryant play. Wade Miley is allowing too much hard contact to RHB and his FIP and xFIP are way higher than his ERA. Baez has destroyed LHP this year for a .399 wOBA and .274 ISO while only striking out 16% of the time against them, and his 21 SBs this year offers unique upside over the rest of his teammates (which we’ll see a lot of stacks of).
Other options – Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Trea Turner, Didi Gregorius
Hernan Perez, MIL ($2500)
Perez is a fun value play tonight, and I have no problem using him in cash even if hits somewhere in the 6-7 range (we’ve seen better spots recently for him). Any time you get a speed guy against Jon Lester, you have to ratchet up the ceiling as Lester has allowed by far the most stolen bases of anyone in the majors over the last three years. Perez has 58 SBs over the last three years while not being an everyday player, and he’s too cheap tonight on FD.
Other options – Asdrubal Cabrera, Jorge Polanco, Jonathan Schoop
Charlie Blackmon, COL ($4100)
If there’s one piece of Coors Field I want tonight, it’s Blackmon. Zack Godley is obviously a good pitcher, but Blackmon has been a platoon giant over the last couple of years and now has three homers in his last two games (with a 50% HHR over his last five). Vegas is not scared of Godley, as the Rockies have a slate high IRT of 5.4 runs. Also, you’re getting Blackmon at a discount from other top options, which is silly. If I can only afford one big bat tonight, he’s it.
Other options – Mike Trout, David Peralta, AJ Pollock, Steven Souza, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Adam Eaton, Shin Soo Choo, Carlos Gonzalez, Lorenzo Cain, Giancarlo Stanton, Andrew McCutchen, Aaron Hicks
Ryan Braun, MIL ($3200)
Braun quietly has a 33% HHR over his last 15 games and a 36% mark over his last ten. Jon Lester is not a dud pitcher but he’s certainly had way too much good luck this year, and stacking the Brewers (who rank fourth in wRC+ against LHP) looks like a great GPP route. I love the value of Braun in cash, as he’s always been a lefty killer and still sports a .253 ISO against them over the last three years. Even though he’s getting up there in age, Braun has still stolen 11 bases this year, and we know about Lester’s inefficiency there.
Other options – David Dahl, Rhys Hoskins, Nick Williams, Roman Quinn, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Daniel Palka, Nicky Delmonico, Robbie Grossman, Alex Gordon, Brian Goodwin, Albert AlmoraFantasy Baseball