FTA crushed it again last night, so you’re going to need us because tonight looks TOUGH. We have a slew of top-end starting pitching, but none of them have the best matchup or are really priced anything but correctly (not to mention we once again have several teams with IRTs over six runs. We will be deep diving throughout the day, but here’s a good start to your FanDuel success tonight. I’m on twitter @jac3600.
Stephen Strasburg, WAS ($11,000)
Man, it’s REALLY tough to go against the Mets right now, but this harkens back to what I said before that tonight’s decisions are going to be incredibly difficult. Even though the Mets have done nothing but win lately, they still have an IRT of only 3.6 runs against Strasburg, who is one of the more skilled pitchers on the slate with a 3.45 SIERA, 29.5% K rate, and 13.8% swinging strike rate. Stras has two quality starts in three outings this season against the Mets.
Other options – Walker Buehler, Shane Bieber, Trevor Bauer, Caleb Smith, Robbie Ray
Julio Teheran, ATL ($9000)
This pick literally makes me nauseous, as anyone with a 5.13 SIERA and 11% BB rate should not be priced in the 9k range (yes, those are Teheran’s current numbers). That said, one cannot argue the matchup in the least bit, as the Marlins rank last in wOBA and 29th in wRC+ against RHP with the fifth highest K rate against them. Teheran is always a mixed bag of results, but in his three outings against Miami this season he has struck out 16 Marlins while posting a QS in all three. Sigh. Nothing right now is anything more than “acceptable”.
Other options – Wade Miley, Marcus Stroman, Chris Archer, Drew Smyly, Gio Gonzalez, JA Happ
Gio Urshela, NYY ($3900)
I NEVER do this, but since there are no standout top plays at 1B tonight I’m simply gonna play the “hot streak” card. Gio has been obliterating baseballs lately with a 41.7% HHR over his last 15 and almost a 58% mark over his last ten. He has five homers over his last three games, and I don’t foresee Sean Reid-Foley (5.86 SIERA, 14.1% BB rate) slowing him down. The Yanks’ IRT currently sits at 5.8 runs.
Other options – Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana, Danny Santana, Anthony Rizzo, Paul Goldschmidt
Jesus Aguilar, TB ($2700)
The Rays seem to have committed to Aguilar being in the three- or four-spot for the Rays, and he’s responded with almost a 1.000 OPS since being traded to Tampa. Aguilar has had virtually a lost year but he’s one season removed from being a monster slugger and has a .342 wOBA and .227 ISO against LHP since last season. Marco Gonzales does not miss bats (7.4% swinging strike rate) and has posted a 5.01 SIERA for the Mariners this year.
Other options – Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Daniel Murphy, Justin Smoak
Catcher values – Yasmani Grandal, Robinson Chirinos, Christian Vazquez
Jose Altuve, HOU ($4300)
The Astros are the next team up to get the enviable task of facing the horrendous Baltimore pitching staff, and we need to be aggressively targeting them all weekend. Dylan Bundy has allowed 1.99 HR/9 this season after allowing 2.15 last year, and his 18.2% HR/FB rate is worst in the majors among active starters. After he’s out, he’s followed by a bullpen that ranks last in wOBA and ISO allowed with the lowest SIERA.
Other options – Gleyber Torres, Keston Huira, Ozzie Albies
Michael Chavis, BOS ($2900)
Boston’s totals have been disappointing lately, but they once again lead the slate with an IRT of 6.6 runs. Chavis’ spot in the batting order is anyone’s guess, but he has a very respectable .199 ISO against RHP in his rookie season so far, and Jaime Barria is a pitcher that lives on flyball outs (32.6% GB rate). In the friendly confines of Fenway park, good luck to him.
Other options – Niko Goodrum, Brock Holt, Isan Diaz
Alex Bregman, HOU ($4000)
There are so many ways to go at 3B tonight, but there’s no doubt in my mind that Bregman is the best per-dollar one. I’ve already spoken about the mess that is the Baltimore pitching staff, and Bregman brings reverse split skills to the table as well (.377 wOBA and .246 ISO against RHP since last year). Throw in the fact that he has a 30.2% HHR over his last 15 games, and the argument can be made that he’s the top overall play tonight regardless of position.
Other options – DJ LeMahieu, Rafael Devers, Manny Machado, Kris Bryant, Hunter Dozier, Mike Moustakas
Jose Ramirez, CLE ($3400)
Ramirez is still priced like the the guy who was in a slump for three months, which makes no sense to me. He had two more hits and three more RBIs yesterday, and his recent HHR’s are really looking solid (38.5% last 15, 42.2% last ten). Ramirez is a better hitter from the left side, but he still has a .351 wOBA and .212 ISO against LHP since last year and is running at will (23 SBs).
Other options – Justin Turner, Matt Carpenter, Renato Nunez, Travis Shaw
Fernando Tatis Jr, SD ($4400)
I’m going off grid with this pick, as the majority of analysts around the industry will tell you that Bogaerts, Lindor, or Correa are the right choices here (and they’re probably right, since all three are cheaper than Tatis and are hitting in much better park environments). That said, I LOVE Tatis tonight. He has homered in three straight games and is now up to a 43.5% HHR over his last 15. I’m sure Kyle Freeland is happy to get away from Coors Field, but he’s been bad everywhere this year with a 7.24 ERA, 5.18 SIERA, and 42.4% HHR allowed. He’s also given up 2.33 HR/9 to RHB and Tatis has massive SB equity as well (0.032 SB/PA).
Other options – Xander Bogaerts, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Bo Bichette
Didi Gregorius, NYY ($3400)
Didi has one of the colder bats on the Yankees (11% HHR last 15), but he’s still a terrific value hitting third or fourth in that order, and tonight he’ll have the platoon edge against Sean Reid-Foley who has a career 6.06 xFIP against LHB while giving up a .347 wOBA. Didi has a .210 ISO against RHP since last year and the Jays bullpen is in the bottom ten in SIERA.
Other options – Elvis Andrus, Freddy Galvis, David Fletcher
Mike Trout, LAA ($4800)
All right, enough of this trying to guess which Yankees or Red Sox player is the one. Tonight the best OF is the mighty Trout, and he’s worthy of his price tag in all formats. Technically, Trout is better against righties, but I don’t think anyone is going to complain about his .444 wOBA and .318 ISO since the beginning of last year. Chris Sale ravaged the Angels last night, but I don’t see Brian Johnson (6.88 ERA, 4.95 SIERA, 40.6% HHR allowed) doing the same. Trout is motoring right along, and has a 33.3% HHR over his last 15.
Other options – Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Aaron Judge, Christian Yelich, George Springer, Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez, Ronald Acuna, Shohei Ohtani, Jorge Soler, Mike Tauchman
Whit Merrifield, KC ($3400)
We haven’t mentioned the Royals yet, as they are never the obvious stack, but they can’t be ignored either as they are facing Edwin Jackson. To put it simply, Jackson is batting practice now. This season, he’s got an 11.12 ERA, 8.98 FIP, and has allowed almost FOUR homers per nine innings. Merrifield isn’t a tremendous power threat, but he has four straight multi-hit games and a high SB equity (0.046 HR/SB).
Other options – Alex Gordon, Billy Hamilton, Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain, Justin Upton, Yasiel Puig, Franmil Reyes, Hunter Renfroe, Manuel Margot, Wil Myers, Nick Castellanos, Jason Heyward, Cameron MaybinFantasy Baseball