Happy Wednesday all! Today we deal with a nine-game slate and a chalky Severino (thanks to a way-too-low price). I hope you’re all playing those satellites to load up on NFL contests (only a month away!). I’ll be on tonight to help all our FTA+ subs build the optimal lineups, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.
Luis Severino, NYY ($9400)
I understand that Severino has struggled lately (27 or less FD points in his last five outings), but he’s WAY too cheap for a cookie of a matchup with the White Sox. They rank 18th in wRC+ against RHP with the third highest K rate, an Severino is a -270 favorite with a 3.2 IRTA (both slate extremes) and the Yankees offense SHOULD feast on Lucas Giolito which gives Sev a great chance at a win. Fade all you want in GPPs, but eat the megachalk here in cash.
Other options – Clayton Kershaw, Mike Clevinger
Jose Quintana, CHC ($8200)
Quintana has had a really disappointing season, highlighted (lowlighted?) by too much hard contact and too many walks. You can’t trust him in cash, but he’s got a great matchup against the Royals who have fallen all the way to 29th in overall wRC+. He’s a -220 favorite with a 3.6 IRTA, and the run prevention should be there even with a negative league shift (facing the DH).
Other options – Jhoulys Chacin, Brian Johnson, John Gant, Andrew Cashner
Anthony Rizzo, CHC ($4200)
I’ve been all over Rizzo since this series began, and today is no different as he rivals the top plays overall. Heath Fillmyer does not project well as a major league starter, and he’s backed by a horrid bullpen that ranks 29th in xFIP and 27th in ISO allowed. Rizzo should get five PAs on the road and he has a .240 ISO against RHP over the past two seasons. He’s an elite play in all formats.
Other options – Matt Carpenter, Freddie Freeman, Edwin Encarnacion
Yonder Alonso, CLE ($3100)
The Indians are currently leading the slate with an IRT of 5.5 runs against Jake Odorizzi who has really struggled this year. He’s also allowed a .186 ISO to LHB over the past two years and Alonso has a .212 ISO against RHP in that span. He’s a solid way to get cheap exposure to the current top offense on the slate.
Other options – Mitch Moreland, Greg Bird, Eric Hosmer, Logan Morrison, Ji-Man Choi
Catcher values – Willson Contreras, Salvador Perez, Yasmani Grandal, Russell Martin
Ozzie Albies, ATL ($4000)
Albies is an excellent option tonight against Tommy Milone and his extreme flyball tendencies. Albies will hit from the right side where he’s posted a .370 wOBA and .201 ISO thus far in his career, and will hit second on the road. The Washington bullpen has been thinned out by injury, and the Braves’ IRT of 4.4 runs seems too low.
Other options – Javier Baez, Gleyber Torres
Travis Shaw, MIL ($3000)
Shaw, now a second baseman on FD, represents a great value play in cash. Padres prospect Brett Kennedy is making his MLB debut and he’s had a solid season in AAA, but that hasn’t stopped a pretty potent Brewers offense from having an IRT of five runs. Shaw has been a platoon giant, posting a .362 wOBA and .233 ISO against RHP over the past two years.
Other options – Brian Dozier, Jonathan Villar, Jason Kipnis, Neil Walker
Jose Ramirez, CLE ($5300)
Ramirez needs no explanation anymore. He’s the best hitter for the best projected offense on the slate, and he’s smashing the ball lately with a 34% HHR the last ten games. He’s a viable spend in all formats, but may be tough to reach in cash.
Other options – Anthony Rendon
Mike Moustakas, MIL ($3100)
The Moose pick largely follows the Shaw explanation. There is no MLB data on Brett Kennedy yet, but Vegas likes the Milwaukee offense tonight, and Moustakas has crushed RHP for a .248 ISO over the past two years. He’s also backed by a much better offense than he saw with his Royals mates.
Other options – Miguel Andujar, Justin Turner, Yangervis Solarte, Matt Duffy
Francisco Lindor, CLE ($4700)
Like Jose Ramirez, Lindor blows away the competition at the position. The issue is whether you can fit him into cash games with so many other good hitters as well. He has a combined 45 homers and steals, a .269 ISO, and will lead off for the highest IRT on the slate. He’s viable in all formats.
Other options – Didi Gregorius, Manny Machado, Trea Turner
Xander Bogaerts, BOS ($3400)
Part of the reason Lindor may take a little more precedence than Jose Ramirez is the lack of punt options at the SS position. That said, it’s still more than viable to play Bogaerts at this price tag. He hits fifth for the Red Sox who are ranked first in both wRC+ and ISO, and they carry an IRT of 5.1 runs against Matt Hauschild who is making his MLB debut. Xander doesn’t have the power upside of the Red Sox OFs, but the context here is fantastic.
Other options – Marcus Semien, Addison Russell, Jorge Polanco
Giancarlo Stanton, NYY ($4600)
Outfield is loaded once again, but Stanton rises to the top as a key cog for a Yankees offense that has an IRT of 5.3 runs. Stanton has almost a 40% HHR over his last ten games and is facing Lucas Giolito who has still walked more batters than he’s struck out to go along with a 5.98 xFIP and 1.42 HR/9 allowed. Stanton is using all fields right now, and he’ll hit second on the road.
Other options – Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Aaron Hicks, Bryce Harper, Christian Yelich, Kyle Schwarber, Michael Brantley, Ronald Acuna
Brett Gardner, NYY ($3400)
Gardner doesn’t offer near the power upside of his teammates, but he’ll lead off for an offense that’s expected to go off tonight. Giolito has been much worse against LHB, allowing a .216 ISO for the last two years, and Gardner offers speed upside as well. He’s great for cash, and alos for Yankees stacks in GPP.
Other options – Jason Heyward, Ian Happ, Albert Almora, Joc Pederson, Matt Kemp, Lorenzo Cain, Eric Thames, Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, Kevin Kiermaier, Eddie Rosario, Adam Eaton, Jackie Bradley, Adam Duvall