Kept rolling right along on FD, as Charlie Morton came through big time at low ownership in the last game of the night. Tonight we tackle a 14-gamer that has it all, pitching, offense, Coors…I unfortunately will not be in chat this evening, but KJ and Thor will take care of you, and I’ll see everyone again on Wednesday night. I’m also on twitter @jac3600.
Max Scherzer, WAS ($11,800)
Scherzer is obviously the top SP option, but he’s not a lock based on some solid mid-tier options and a TON of offense. Believe it or not, Scherzer is currently posting a career high 34.7% K rate and has a 2.68 FIP. He is a -210 favorite with a 3.1 IRTA, and should be his dominant self despite facing a difficult matchup in Atlanta. If you build through him you get no argument from me, but it’s not necessary just yet.
Other options – Carlos Carrasco, Zack Greinke
Andrew Heaney, LAA ($8900)
You can pay up for Scherzer, drop down to Greinke, or drop even further to Heaney in cash contests today. Heaney is another huge favorite with a low IRTA (-175, 3.5). The Tigers are getting a big park downgrade going to Los Angeles and they’ve dropped from sixth to 14th in wRC+ against LHP over the last month. He’s an elite GPP play, and a viable cash game pivot if you really want some offense.
Other options – Nick Pivetta, Chase Anderson, CC Sabathia, Clayton Richard, Sal Romano
Anthony Rizzo, CHC ($4000)
Rizzo could very well be my favorite overall hitter on this slate. He’ll lead off again for the Cubs and will surely get five PAs against Brad Keller and the league worst bullpen. Keller has walked 17% of LHB he’s faced while only striking out 14% of them, and Rizzo has a .384 wOBA and .239 ISO against RHP over the past two seasons. I will aggressively pursue him today.
Other options – Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt, Edwin Encarnacion, Justin Smoak
Ryon Healy/Mike Zunino, SEA ($2300/$2000)
Neither of these guys will come with optimal lineup spots, but they’re hitting for a Mariners offense that currently has the highest IRT on the slate at 5.9 runs. They get a huge park upgrade going to the immense heat of Texas, and they’re facing Bartolo Colon who doesn’t miss bats and has allowed 1.88 HR/9 to same-handed hitters over the past three seasons. He’s also backed by a now-wretched bullpen. Either is fine for cash, especially alongside Scherzer.
Other options – Jesus Aguilar, Kendrys Morales, Greg Bird, Ji-Man Choi
Catcher values – Francisco Cervelli, Robinson Chirinos, Willson Contreras, Russell Martin, Tucker Barnhart
Rougned Odor, TEX ($4100)
Odor is finally priced correctly, but it doesn’t stop him from being the top option, and playable in all formats. This SEA/TEX game has an O/U pushing 12 runs, and the Rangers are the second ranked offense with an IRT of 5.6. Felix Hernandez has allowed massive amounts of hard contact lately, and has given up a .361 wOBA and .217 ISO to LHB since the beginning of last year.
Other options – Javier Baez, Whit Merrifield, D.J. LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres
Dee Gordon, SEA ($2800)
Gordon has no power, but he has immense speed and will lead off for the best offense of the night. Colon is excellent at holding runners on but Gordon is somewhat matchup proof in that regard, and the ability to score multiple runs tonight is high. He’s an easy cash target at a low price.
Other options – Brian Dozier, Jonathan Schoop, Jonathan Villar
Eugenio Suarez, CIN ($3900)
I happen to like Suarez more than both Ramirez and Arenado tonight, which is REALLY saying something. Suarez has brutalized LHP since the beginning of last year for a .433 wOBA and .268 ISO, and he’s facing arguably the worst LHP in baseball in Jason Vargas. It’s hot in NY, and Vargas is backed by a Mets bullpen that ranks 28th in xFIP and no longer has Jeurys Familia. He’s my favorite GPP play overall, and is cash playable if you decide to save money at SP.
Other options – Jose Ramirez, Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rendon, Jurickson Profar
Justin Turner, LAD ($2600)
A big reason you don’t need the top guys above in FD cash is because of Turner. He’s returned from the DL and is now in a lineup that got absolutely stacked while he was gone, and Turner himself has killed LHP the last year and a half for a .446 wOBA and .268 ISO. Sean Manaea isn’t a bad pitcher, but he doesn’t miss enough bats to keep himself in play. This Dodgers lineup is scary, and Turner is really about $1000 too cheap.
Other options – Miguel Andujar, Colin Moran, Adrian Beltre, Kyle Seager, Yangervis Solarte
Didi Gregorius, NYY ($3800)
Once again, the Yankees are pushing for the highest team total, and they currently sit at a robust 5.5 runs. Didi had a great first game in Chicago yesterday, and should get to post big numbers once more against Reynaldo Lopez who doesn’t miss bats and has allowed a .200 ISO to LHB since the beginning of last year. Didi (and all the Yankees) are probably better suited for GPPs, but he’s hitting the ball well right now and is still under 4k.
Other options – Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Manny Machado, Elvis Andrus
Jean Segura, SEA ($3200)
Like Dee Gordon, Segura doesn’t carry power upside (a bit more, since he has eight homers), but he can steal bags as well. The context of the game and matchup greatly outweighs any concerns over Segura as a hitter, and he’ll likely garner heavy ownership in cash games at a cheap price tag.
Other options – Xander Bogaerts, Marcus Semien, Tim Anderson, Jose Peraza, Chris Taylor
Charlie Blackmon, COL ($4200)
I’m less interested in the Rockies tonight than I normally would be in Coors due to the effective play of Jameson Taillon, but Blackmon is a different animal when he’s facing a righty. Colorado’s IRT is a tame (for Coors at least) at 5.4 runs, but Blackmon has a .402 wOBA and .276 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year and Taillon has struggled a lot more with lefties.
Other options – Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Nelson Cruz, Starling Marte, Gregor Polanco, Corey Dickerson, Shin Soo Choo, Joey Gallo
Mitch Haniger/Denard Span, SEA ($3100/$2600)
These underpriced hitters complete the Mariner love today, and we may very well end up with 3-4 of them in cash. Either of these guys are cash viable, with Haniger coming with more power upside and reverse-split tendencies (.222 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year).
Other options – Carlos Gonzalez, David Dahl, Justin Upton, Shohei Ohtani, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, Brett Gardner, David Peralta, Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Matt Kemp