I’m so glad that I didn’t stay up for the entire NYY/BOS game because I would have been in a horrendous mood this morning. As it was, FD was once again a raging success despite a weak performance from Aaron Nola, and today we get another offense-filled slate with some nice discounts on top SPs. Let’s keep the success going, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.
Charlie Morton, HOU ($9800)
Syndergaard at $9400 is awfully hard to pass up, but I have to side with Morton for a bit more safety here. Morton has been a bona fide ace this year with a 2.90 ERA, 3.14 xFIP, and a 30.8% K rate, and now he’s getting the biggest park upgrade in all of baseball going to SF. In addition, he won’t have to face the DH, and the Giants are ranked 24th in wRC+ against RHP with a K rate higher than the league average. Morton is a -155 road favorite with a 3.4 IRTA, and his price is not restrictive enough that you can’t get some big bats in.
Other options – Trevor Bauer, Noah Syndergaard
Cole Hamels, CHC ($8500)
Hamels was fantastic in his first start as a Cub, and while he’s back in an AL park today, he’s facing a Royals squad that offers absolutely no resistance against LHP (26th in wRC+, 22nd in ISO). Hamels is the largest favorite on the slate at -210, and his strikeout ability bounced back in a big way this year. He’s my favorite GPP pitcher on the slate.
Other options – Zack Godley, Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn, Nick Tropeano, Luke Weaver
Anthony Rizzo, CHC ($3900)
The Cubs are in a great spot today. They’ll travel to an AL park and the DK will add significant depth to their lineup, and Rizzo leading off should be almost a lock for five PAs. He has a .384 wOBA and .239 ISO against RHP over the past two seasons, and he’s facing Jake Junis (2.02 HR/9 allowed) and a Royals bullpen that ranks dead last in xFIP. The Cubs have a solid IRT of 5.3 runs.
Other options – Paul Goldschmidt, Ian Desmond, Edwin Encarnacion
Ryon Healy, SEA ($2300)
This might be Healy’s first entry into my series of articles, but he’s a deserving one at his price tag. The Mariners get an insane park boost as they travel to Texas where temps are expected to be in the 100s once again. We saw two mediocre offenses in the Orioles and Rangers put up gaudy totals there over the weekend, and Seattle is better than both of them. Healy will have the platoon edge against Martin Perez, and he’s posted a solid .215 ISO against LHP over the past two years.
Other options – Yonder Alonso, Greg Bird, Ryan McMahon, Justin Bour, Jose Martinez
Catcher values – Willson Contreras, Yadier Molina, Robinson Chirinos, Mike Zunino
Javier Baez, CHC ($4100)
Baez gets the same context (without the platoon edge) and adds big time speed to the equation as well (19 steals to go along with his 24 homers). He should hit no lower than cleanup, and has monstrous upside. I don’t think you need to spend for him in cash games, but he’s an elite GPP play and a cornerstone of Cubs stacks.
Other options – Rougned Odor, Josh Harrison, Yoan Moncada, Gleyber Torres
Dee Gordon, SEA ($2700)
Gordon is not a good individual hitter and he has a L/L matchup, but he’s cheap with speed upside and will lead off for a team with a an IRT of 5.4 runs. Five PAs is almost a certainty for Gordon, and the Rangers bullpen has plummeted to 27th in xFIP (and they won’t get any better having traded away Kela and Diekman). Gordon is fine for cash.
Other options – Whit Merrifield, Cesar Hernandez, Niko Goodrum, Neil Walker
Nolan Arenado, COL ($4800)
I prefer Blackmon of the two big Rockie hitters, but there’s nothing at all wrong with Arenado and his .303 ISO at home the last three seasons. Joe Musgrove has been pretty good this year, but he’s still allowed a 32% HHR since the beginning of last year and gets the park shift into Coors that no pitcher wants. Arenado is viable in all formats, but he’s not my top overall hitter, and maybe not even in my top five.
Other options – Jose Ramirez, Matt Carpenter, David Freese
Adrian Beltre, TEX ($3200)
Beltre was $2700 all last week, so it’s a bit annoying to see this price hike considering he wasn’t one of the key Rangers hitters all weekend against the Orioles. That said, he’s still a fine value, since despite his age he’s posted an incredible .408 wOBA and .206 ISO against LHP the past two seasons. Texas is one of several teams with an IRT over five runs.
Other options – Miguel Andujar, Jeimer Candelario, Yolmer Sanchez
Didi Gregorius, NYY ($3900)
We’ll use this section to discuss the Yankees, who have the second highest IRT on the slate at 5.6 runs despite an anemic showing over the weekend in Boston. They’re facing Dylan Covey in Chicago tonight and Covey has been atrocious in his career. Lefties especially have gotten the better of him, popping off a .199 ISO over the past two seasons, and Didi is a dead pull hitter with a .243 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year.
Other options – Trevor Story, Francisco Lindor, Elvis Andrus
Jean Segura, SEA ($3100)
Segura is a pretty easy call at SS at his price tag. He should hit second for the Mariners which means a good bet for five PAs, and he’s facing Martin Perez who has allowed a 34% HHR to RHB the last three years. Segura’s average has meaningfully fallen over the past month, but he has eight homers and 16 steals on the year, and the run scoring potential is high tonight.
Other options – Asdrubal Cabrera, Paul DeJong, Andrelton Simmons
Charlie Blackmon, COL ($4300)
Blackmon headlines a loaded OF slate, but Stanton and Cruz aren’t far behind him. I would love to fit in two of these guys in cash, but the prices at other position that aren’t QUITE cheap enough may make that difficult. Blackmon is $400 cheaper than Stanton which makes him the easy call here. He should lead off for the Rockies and he has a .400 wOBA and .253 ISO against RHP since the beginning of 2016. Joe Musgrove has allowed a .179 ISO to LHB in that span.
Other options – Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Nelson Cruz, Mike Trout, Starling Marte, Kyle Schwarber, Michael Brantley, Shin Soo Choo
Carlos Gonzalez, COL ($3400)
Like Blackmon, CarGo slightly outpaces a duo of other values from the same teams (Gardner – Yankees, Haniger – Mariners). Despite declining skills, Gonzalez has a .212 ISO against RHP over the past three years and should hit cleanup for the Rockies who have the highest IRT at 5.9 runs.
Other options – Brett Gardner, Mitch Haniger, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Ian Happ, Jason Heyward, Albert Almora, Justin Upton, David Peralta, Jose Osuna, Gerardo Parra, Marcell Ozuna, Guillermo Heredia