I’m back! After somewhat of a weekend away, I’m ready to tackle tonight’s slate, which has 13 games (big for a Monday). The Yankees lineup is going to be huge this evening, as half their regulars are either on the IL or close to it. Since they’re in Baltimore, there’s a chance we get some of their guys as mega-values, which will help balance Boston chalk. I’ll be back in chat today helping our subs out, and follow me on twitter @jac3600. Good luck!
Charlie Morton, TB ($10,100)
Morton is a pretty easy call for me in cash tonight, although I’d at least LISTEN on the value play below. Morton has been as steady as anyone in the league this season, and is in the conversation for AL Cy Young. He has a 3.61 SIERA and a 30.1% K rate, and is facing the Blue Jays who have the second lowest IRT on the slate at 3.1 runs. Despite the additions of Biggio, Vlad, and Bo Bichette, Toronto still ranks 23rd in wOBA against RHP with the eighth highest K rate against them, and Tampa is a controlled pitching environment.
Other options – Luis Castillo, Lucas Giolito
Masahiro Tanaka, NYY ($7800)
If you have a need for more offense than Morton can provide you, Tanaka is one of my favorite GPP options and is also cash viable for those who can tolerate a little more risk. Tanaka is prone to blowups thanks to a 40.1% HHR allowed, and his 4.78 ERA is backed by a 4.51 SIERA. However, the Orioles are 27th in wOBA and 26th in wRC+ against RHP, and Tanaka is a heavy favorite at -260 with an IRTA of 3.9 runs. He’s a bit too cheap on FD.
Other options – Kyle Hendricks, Mike Minor, Rick Porcello, Merrill Kelly, Walter Lockett
Pete Alonso, NYM ($3900)
Alonso being under 4k doesn’t really make much sense on any given day, and he’s someone you have to consider in all formats even hitting in the controlled environment of Miami. Robert Duggar is making his MLB debut for the Marlins, and he has a 6.80 xFIP since being promoted to AAA while allowing 1.77 HR/9. Alonso has a ridiculous .324 ISO in his rookie campaign, which includes a .270 mark against RHP. What’s not to like here?
Other options – Freddie Freeman, Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana
Eric Thames, MIL ($2500)
Thames always comes with some PH risk for the Brewers, but less so now that Jesus Aguilar has been traded. Thames’ downside always comes in the form of his high K rate, but that shouldn’t be a problem today against Dario Agrazal who has been simply awful at the MLB level with an 11.6% K rate, 5.9% swinging strike rate, and 5.80 SIERA. As long as Thames is in the top six of the order, he’s a useful value with his .260 ISO against RHP since last year.
Other options – Joey Votto, Brandon Belt, Joc Pederson, Ji-Man Choi, Gio Urshela
Catcher values – JT Realmuto, Yasmani Grandal, Christian Vasquez, Wilson Ramos
Gleyber Torres, NYY ($4000)
Torres is a polarizing play right now, as you could argue he’s up there with the best overall batters regardless of position. However, he was also hospitalized last night with a core injury, so it’s possible he’s not even in the lineup (he’s reportedly traveling with the team to Baltimore, so that’s a good sign). The Yankees have an IRT of 6.5 runs against Baltimore who has the worst SIERA in all of baseball, and he’s rocking right now with three homers and a 45% HHR over his last five games. I’m pessimistic about him playing tonight, though 🙁
Other options – Ketel Marte, Max Muncy
Michael Chavis, BOS ($3000)
Boston has lost seven straight to the Rays and Yankees and are reeling, but I wouldn’t hold it against them tonight, and Vegas agrees (their IRT of seven runs tops the slate). Chavis doesn’t always get the greatest lineup spots, but it’s possible he moves up against the lefty Montgomery. He has a 38.9% HHR over his last 15 games and also has posted a .210 ISO against LHP in his inaugural season.
Other options – Ozzie Albies, Rougned Odor, Niko Goodrum, Jose Peraza
Eugenio Suarez, CIN ($3600)
Third base is absolutely loaded tonight, and there are many options you can use in either format. I think Suarez’s combination of his floor/ceiling with his price tag makes him the best per-dollar play at this moment, but we’ll see where the day takes us. Suarez is facing Patrick Sandoval who is making his MLB debut for the Angels, and the lefty has walked over five batters per nine innings while posting a 4.99 xFIP and 1.97 WHIP in AAA this season. The Reds sneakily have an IRT approaching six runs, and Suarez is an elite platoon hitter with a .382 wOBA and .276 ISO in that split since last year.
Other options – DJ LeMahieu, Rafael Devers, Jose Ramirez, Josh Donaldson, Mike Moustakas
Justin Turner, LAD ($3000)
I really dig Turner’s price tag, and it helps that he’s a reverse-split hitter who is facing a reverse-split pitcher tonight. Turner has a .361 wOBA and .193 ISO in the reverse split since last year, and Michael Wacha has allowed a .405 wOBA and 2.45 HR/9 to RHB this season with only a 16.9% K rate against them. Even with the slew of high upside guys above, Turner is viable is cash as a classic “opportunity cost ruiner”. He’s also elite in GPPs, and you should stack Dodgers there too.
Other options – Matt Carpenter, Matt Chapman, Pablo Sandoval, Evan Longoria
Xander Bogaerts, BOS ($4100)
I prefer the Red Sox outfielders as the big Boston spends to Xander (thanks to Didi below), but if you choose to pay up here I don’t argue. You can even use both if you want. Xander is becoming a superstar for the Red Sox with a .951 OPS and 12% BB rate, and he’s been great against LHP this season with a .363 wOBA and .281 ISO (and 45% HHR). ANY Boston bat is worth their high price tonight against KC.
Other options – Francisco Lindor, Trea Turner, Javier Baez
Didi Gregorius, NYY ($3400)
Didi is a gift on FD at $3400, and it’s one you should take full advantage of in cash. He’s going to have the platoon edge in Baltimore against Gabriel Ynoa, who has a 5.17 SIERA and 14.2% K rate. Vegas KNOWS how thin the Yankees are, and they’re still currently pegged for an IRT of 6.5 runs which tells you all you need to know about the Baltimore pitching staff. Didi will have a premier lineup spot with all the Yankee injuries.
Other options – Jean Segura, Elvis Andrus, Corey Seager, Jose Iglesias
JD Martinez, BOS ($4200)
Aaron Judge is $100 cheaper so people may call him the top option, and other may go with Betts at a higher lineup spot. I’m fine with either of these plays, but JD is my best play in a loaded outfield spot. We’ve already talked about Boston being the class offense this evening, and Martinez has been absolutely hammering the ball lately with a 55.3% HHR over his last 15 games (yes, you read that right). He’s also a platoon monster with a .401 wOBA and .286 ISO against LHP since last year, and Mike Montgomery has a meager 13.2% K rate this season while allowing a 43% HHR. Good luck to him.
Other options – Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, Ronald Acuna, Bryce Harper, Shin SooChoo, Whit Merrifield, Michael Conforto
Aristedes Aquino, CIN ($2000)
Aquino is now the everyday rightfielder for the Reds, and he’s been minimum priced on FanDuel ever since he was added to the player pool. He’s an important value on the site as he’ll likely allow you to afford Morton along with two big bats. He’s no slouch either as he posted a .337 ISO at the AAA level this year and has followed that up with a .333 so far in the majors. Cincinnati is one of the top offenses on the slate tonight, as well.
Other options – Nick Senzel, Phillip Ervin, Brett Gardner, Mike Tauchman, Cameron Maybin, Clint Frazier (is he finally coming up?), Yasiel Puig, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Jeff McNeil, Corey Dickerson, Jorge Soler, Nick CastellanosFantasy Baseball