FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 8/5/18

I’m pretty sure I jinxed us all yesterday with the streak talk, as my lineups were BAD.  Let’s get back at it today, and we’re likely to see very different lineups between FD and DK today as the latter includes the TEX/BAL game which ones against has an O/U of 11.  FD is a little more straightforward, so let’s see what we can come up with.  I’ll see you in chat later, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.   STARTING PITCHER TOP PLAY Aaron Nola, PHI ($10,000) Nola is the clear cut cash play on FD at an easily accessible price tag and a great matchup.  Nola has been an ace this year with his 2.35 ERA/2.67 FIP, 18.8 K/BB%, and 50.7% GB rate.  The Marlins are not a scary offense in the least bit, and they rank 26th in wRC+ against RHP on the season.  Nola is a -240 favorite with an IRTA of three runs, so don’t overthink this one. Other options – Jon Gray   VALUE PLAY Ervin Santana, MIN ($6600) In GPPs, there are plenty of cheap pitchers to enable you to stack up whatever offense you’re looking at.  I especially like Ervin at his price, as he’s facing a Royals team that ranks 24th in wRC+ against RHP with a rapidly rising K rate.  Santana has only logged two starts this season, but there are no limitations on him at this point, and he is one of few pitchers today with an IRTA under four runs. Other options – Jon Lester, Tanner Roark, Jack Flaherty, James Shields, Shane Bieber   CATCHER/FIRST BASE TOP PLAY Freddie Freeman, ATL ($4200) The Braves only have an IRT of 4.4 runs today, but honestly that number makes no sense to me.  Corey Oswalt has been dreadful at the major league level, posting a 5.26 ERA and allowing 1.65 HR/9.  It’s not like this is an anomaly either, as he was plagued by the longball in the minors as well (1.55 HR/9 allowed at AAA).  Freeman has busted up right-handed pitching for a .404 wOBA and .266 ISO over the past three years, and the Mets bullpen has been awful all year. Other options – Edwin Encarnacion, Anthony Rizzo, Joey Votto, Carlos Santana   VALUE PLAY Ji-Man Choi, TB ($2000) I always like finding min-priced punts with upside, and Choi fits the bill today.  The hitting environment is not great, but neither is James Shields, who has allowed 1.92 HR/9 to LHB over his past three years (albeit having done a better job this year).  Shields not longer misses bats, and Choi is perfectly capable of popping a homer at no cost to you. Other options – Yonder Alonso, Ian Desmond, Lucas Duda Catcher values – Willson Contreras, Salvador Perez, Chris Iannetta, Mitch Garver   SECOND BASE TOP PLAY Javier Baez, CHC ($4000) Let’s talk about the Cubs.  As of this writing there is still not total on this game, but it’s projected to be in the lower 90s with the winds heavily blowing straight out to center.  This should leaves the Cubbies as the class offense of the slate by quite a bit, and you’ll want to get some of them into your cash lineups for sure.  Baez has busted out this year, posting a .279 ISO with a combined 43 homers and steals.  Joey Lucchesi has K upside, but he’s struggled with power and hard contact.  I expect the Cubs’ IRT to settle in at well over six runs. Other options – Ozzie Albies, Yoan Moncada   VALUE PLAY Ben Zobrist, CHC ($3100) Zobrist is the “Baez-lite” play with all the same benefits highlighted above.  He obviously doesn’t have the dynamic upside of Baez, but he’s been adequate from the right side (.171 ISO against LHP the last three years).  He should hit near the top of the order, so if you can’t afford Baez, Zobrist is a perfectly fine pivot. Other options – Whit Merrifield, Cesar Hernandez, Jason Kipnis, Travis Shaw   THIRD BASE TOP PLAY Jose Ramirez, CLE ($5200) It’s hard to pay almost $1000 more for Ramirez than Nolan Arenado, who is facing a lefty that allows power.  However, Ramirez has been sensational this year (57 combined homers and steals) and has an even better matchup than Arenado.  The Angels are running out Deck McGuire, who has posted a 7.69 FIP and allowed 2.88 HR/9 thus far at the major league level.  Ramirez has a 32% HHR over his last 15 games, and has crushed RHP for a .400 wOBA and .259 ISO since the beginning of last season. Other options – Nolan Arenado, Matt Carpenter, Anthony Rendon   VALUE PLAY Miguel Sano, MIN ($2900) It’s been a lost season for Sano, but his price tag is really tough to ignore on FD, especially since he’s now facing a power-prone lefty.  Sano has beaten on LHP in his career with a .351 wOBA and .235 ISO, and the hard hit rate has slowly started to look pretty nice (27% last five games).  Danny Duffy has pitcher much better lately, but he’s still attackable with this matchup. Other options – Mike Moustakas, Matt Duffy, Christian Villaneuva   SHORTSTOP TOP PLAY Francisco Lindor, CLE ($4800) This pick completely echoes the Ramirez blurb.  Lindor is an elite play for power and speed, and gets to lead off against Deck McGuire and a questionable Angels bullpen (21st in xFIP).  He’s definitely cash viable, but there are acceptable mid-tier to value options to help you comfortably fit Nola.  I’m likely looking for him to headline my Indians stacks. Other options – Trea Turner, Trevor Story   VALUE PLAY Addison Russell, CHC ($2600) Russell generally hits seventh or eighth for the Cubs, but it’s Sunday and a day game, so ideally we’ll see some lineup shuffling that moves hi up against the lefty.  Russell has a .194 ISO against LHP over the past three seasons, and his upside will be greatly aided by the weather.  Wait for the lineups, and act accordingly. Other options – Asdrubal Cabrera, Jose Polanco, Amed Rosario   OUTFIELD TOP PLAY Rhys Hoskins, PHI ($4500) The OF landscape looks a lot different today.  The Yankees and Red Sox top OFs aren’t available, and Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are both questionable with injuries.  This leaves Hoskins atop the heap, and he’s got a 41% HHR over his last ten games.  Throw in a whopping .290 ISO in his career and the fact that Dan Straily has allowed a .202 ISO to same handed hitters in his career, and you’ve got massive potential here.  There only issue is price tag, but there are cheap Cubs (see below) who might help you get him in if you want him. Other options – Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Christian Yelich, Charlie Blackmon, Ronald Acuna, Michael Brantley   VALUE PLAY Ian Happ/Albert Almora, CHC ($2600/$2300) These two Cubs are key players in cash lineups today.  Almora has a career .369 wOBA against LHP, while Happ has posted a .352 mark, and both have plus power peripherals.  Like the rest of the Cubs in this article, the lineup spot is key, but these prices are gifts for a Cubs offense that should settle in with an IRT well over six runs. Other options – Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams, Kevin Kiermaier, Kole Calhoun, Justin Upton, Shohei Ohtani, Adam Eaton, Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe, Eric Thames, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto Fantasy Baseball

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