We’re up to five straight wins on FD (unfortunately DK was a loss) thanks to the solid efforts of Corbin and Peralta, backed by the megachalk Rangers. It’s tough to get an edge on FD with the Texas bats being so obvious and also so cheap, but we’re going right back to them again today. Make sure to join us in chat later on tonight, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.
James Paxton, SEA ($9500)
There’s a serious debate tonight over whether Jose Berrios is actually deserving of being more expensive than Corey Kluber, and both sides have a legitimate argument. Thankfully, I like James Paxton for cash better than both of them, and he’s $900-1200 cheaper which makes the decision even easier. Paxton has the lowest IRTA on the slate at three runs, and is a massive -230 favorite. He was great in his return from the DL as he dominated a much better offense in the Astros, and the Blue Jays rank 19th in wRC+ against LHP. This is a fairly easy call for me in cash.
Other options – Jose Berrios, Corey Kluber, Lance McCullers
Freddy Peralta, MIL ($7400)
Peralta is far too volatile for cash games, but he’s THE tournament play of the night. He’s got an elite 33% K rate at the major league level so far this season and is facing a Rockies squad that ranks 28th in wRC+ against RHP with the ninth highest K rate. His BB rate is too high and his GB rate is too low to consider in cash, but he’s one of few pitchers in the league with the ability to strike out upwards of 15 batters in a game.
Other options – Kenta Maeda, Zack Eflin, Dylan Bundy, Edwin Gausman, Kevin Gausman
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI ($4100)
Goldy against a lefty is always in play in all formats. Andrew Suarez has posted an excellent 51.2% GB rate this year, but he doesn’t miss bats and Goldschmidt has hammered lefties for a .414 wOBA and .256 ISO over the past two seasons. I don’t think you need to take him in cash due to value at the position, but there’s certainly no argument if you do.
Other options – Freddie Freeman, Edwin Encarnacion, Joey Votto, Carlos Santana
Matt Adams, WAS ($2900)
Adams’ cash game effectiveness will depend on his lineup spot, as he could hit anywhere from third to sixth, especially since Washington will have already played a game. The Nats have an IRT of 5.6 runs which is the second highest only to the Rangers, and they’re facing Matt Harvey who has allowed a .386 wOBA and .215 ISO to LHB over the past two years. Adams has a .242 ISO against RHP in that span.
Other options – Yonder Alonso, Justin Bour, Logan Morrison, Joe Mauer
Catcher values – Robinson Chirinos, Mitch Garver, Matt Wieters, Mike Zunino
Rougned Odor, TEX ($3900)
Yesterday I rostered both second basemen in this BAL/TEX game in cash, and there’s a good chance I do it again. Villar (see below) is a lock based on price, but how do you fade Odor right now? He’s got a 47% HHR over his last ten games and has five homers, 10 RBI and 10 runs scored over his last six contests. Odor has a .217 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year, and Dylan Bundy has allowed a .190 ISO to LHB in that span.
Other options – Ozzie Albies, Scooter Gennett, Daniel Murphy
Jonathan Villar, BAL ($2400)
You can’t fade Villar if he’s leading off again. He’s simply not priced correctly for the context, and now he actually gets to hit from his better side for the first time this series. Besides his speed, Villar also has amazingly posted a .196 ISO over the past two seasons. Remember, we’re only two years removed from Villar’s season of 81 combined homers and steals. Don’t miss him today.
Other options – Cesar Hernandez, Dee Gordon, Josh Harrison, Jason Kipnis
Jose Ramirez, CLE ($5200)
Ramirez needs no explanation anymore, as he could wind up leading the league in both homers and steals. He’s got a magical .401 wOBA and .250 ISO against RHP over the past two years, and Felix Pena allows way too many flyballs. If you want him, you can get him.
Other options – Matt Carpenter, Anthony Rendon, Eugenio Suarez
Adrian Beltre, TEX ($2700)
If you’re spending up in other spots, I recommend “punting” with Beltre. Dylan Bundy has been better against righties, but he’s still allowed too much power and the Texas heat is really driving the Rangers’ slate-high 5.7 IRT. Baltimore’s bullpen is now really bad as well as they’ve traded away Britton, Brach, and O’Day.
Other options – Jurickson Profar, Eduardo Escobar, Miguel Sano, Renato Nunez
Francisco Lindor, CLE ($4800)
Like teammate Jose Ramirez, Lindor can do it all, with his combined 43 homers and steals (and 93 runs scored already). It’s going to be warm in Cleveland tonight, and the Indians have a solid IRT of 5.2 runs. There’s enough value at the SS position that you don’t need to pay up here for cash, but like I said in Goldy’s blurb, I don’t argue it.
Other options – Trea Turner, Manny Machado, Elvis Andrus
Tim Beckham, BAL ($3100)
Baltimore is still fine to target even though the Rangers outclass them in the same ballpark. Mike Minor has really struggled with righty power, having allowed a .200 ISO to RHB since the beginning of last year, and Beckham has a .177 ISO against LHP in that span. Beckham has only slid down one spot in the batting order with Villar at the top, so his floor really hasn’t been affected.
Other options – Jean Segura, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jorge Polanco, Jose Peraza
Bryce Harper, WAS ($4600)
Harper is the top play in the outfield as he takes on Matt Harvey who has been brutalized by lefties in recent years. His hard hit rate is approaching 40% over this last ten games and he has four multi-hit games in his last seven. Harper has beaten on righty pitching since the beginning of last year, posting a .397 wOBA and .297 ISO. He’s worthy of his price in all formats.
Other options – Mike Trout, Rhys Hoskins, Charlie Blackmon, Juan Soto, Nelson Cruz, AJ Pollock, Khris Davis, Ronald Acuna, Starling Marte
Shin Soo Choo/Joey Gallo, TEX ($3200/$3000)
Both guys should be the first two you consider for cash in the outfield. Both have hard hit rates over 30% in the last ten days, and once again will be smack in the top to middle of the best offense to target on the slate. Gallo has a little more downside in this game than he’s had in the first two since Dylan Bundy has K upside, but the .190 ISO allowed to LHB could really plague Bundy in this park. Choo is an on-base machine, and Gallo has a .277 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year.
Other options – Michael Brantley, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Adam Eaton, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Trey Mancini, Danny Valencia, Eddie Rosario, Steven Souza, Nick Castellanos, Carlos Gonzalez, Willie Calhoun