FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 8/30/19

Trevor Story wearing number 8 for the Colorado Rockies

Happy Friday FTA friends! We had two more subscribers absolutely crush GPPs last night, so come on board NOW in time for football season! Tonight we have a full 14-game slate with all sorts of options to choose from. The Rockies have one of the matchups of the year, so expect them to flood our lineups later, and join us in chat as we discuss it all. I’m also on twitter @jac3600.

STARTING PITCHER

TOP PLAY

Madison Bumgarner, SF ($9200)

I think I’m going even cheaper than this four cash to REALLY load up on Coors bats, but you can get at least one and maybe even two if you use Bumgarner. He doesn’t have the upside anymore of the guys priced above him, but he’s been great at home with a 3.13 SIERA and 0.95 WHIP and the matchup against the Padres is great. They rank 26th in runs scored and 28th in wOBA against LHP with the seventh highest K rate against them, and their 3.6 IRT is tied for the slate low. It also really helps that rookie phenom Fernando Tatis is out for the year.

Other options – Shane Bieber, Aaron Nola, Trevor Bauer

VALUE PLAY

Anibal Sanchez, WAS ($7700)

If you want a total Coors explosion in cash, Anibal is the key to unlocking that and that’s most likely the path I’m taking. Despite a declining skill set as evidenced by his 5.03 SIERA, Anibal has done a really good job of limiting hard contact with only a 29.6% HHR allowed. He gets the coveted matchup against the Marlins tonight who rank 29th in wOBA and 29th in wRC+ against RHP with the sixth highest K rate against. Anibal is a -260 favorite which is huge on FD, and he also has a 3.6 IRTA. Most importantly, he’s got six quality starts in his last ten and his price tag lets you get the bats you need.

Other options – Max Fried, Dinelson Lamet, Kyle Gibson, Tony Gonsolin, CC Sabathia, Eric Skoglund

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

TOP PLAY

Josh Bell, PIT ($4400)

The Rockies are the team you want to harp on in cash, but do not by any means forget Pittsburgh who put up 11 runs yesterday and have an IRT of 6.8 runs today. Bell is facing another horrid Colorado righty in Antonio Senzatela who has a 5.75 SIERA and 12.2% K rate today, and he’s got a .363 wOBA and .237 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last season. He’s an elite GPP play, but there’s not way we’re passing on Daniel Murphy at his price tag (see below).

Other options – DJ LeMahieu, Gary Sanchez, Freddie Freeman, Pete Alonso, Yuli Gurriel, Matt Olson, Trey Mancini

VALUE PLAY

Daniel Murphy, COL ($3300)

Murphy’s price tag makes no sense at all, and he’s a must in cash even if you want to play Josh Bell in the UTIL spot. He’s got a .212 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last season and the matchup can’t get any better. Dario Agrazal has a 5.84 SIERA and 11.9% K rate at the MLB level so far this year while allowing 1.84 HR/9 and he stands almost no chance tonight. Load up on Rockies, and Murphy is a priority play.

Other options – Danny Santana, CJ Cron, Justin Smoak, Matt Adams

Catcher values – Tom Murphy, Pedro Severino, Elias Diaz, Tony Wolters, Jason Castro

SECOND BASE

TOP PLAY

Ryan McMahon, COL ($3500)

You’re going to see Rockies hitters top every position here today, even McMahon who falls behind his more notable teammates. McMahon has a .182 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year, and he has a very impressive 41.4% HHR over his last 15 games. He’s viable in all formats but I’d rather grab a bit more savings at 2B in cash.

Other options – Jose Altuve, Gleyber Torres, Ketel Marte, Adam Frazier

VALUE PLAY

Ozzie Albies, ATL ($3200)

It was hard choosing between Albies and Merrifield at the same price here, but I’ll lean to the platoon edge and a tiny bit higher IRT and say Albies. He has a .180 ISO against RHP since last year coupled with a 0.020 SB/PA which gives him adequate event upside, and the matchup against Ivan Nova is great as he’s only managed a 14% K rate against LHB this season. The Braves’ IRT of 5.6 is a good secondary attack point to Coors Field.

Other options – Whit Merrifield, Nick Solak, Hanser Alberto, Luis Arraez, Brian Dozier

NOTE: As this article was being written, John Means replaced Dylan Bundy as the Orioles’ starter. This bumps Merrifield over Albies for me.

THIRD BASE

TOP PLAY

Nolan Arenado, COL ($4700)

More Rockies. Arenado is generally the top target against a lefty, but he has just as much upside in this matchup. Arenado has managed a beautiful .256 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year, and Dario Agrazal has only managed a pathetic 9.3% K rate against RHP. The Rockies’ IRT is 7.7 runs, and with good reason.

Other options – Anthony Rendon, Rafael Devers, Miguel Sano, Colin Moran, Matt Chapman

VALUE PLAY

Josh Donaldson, ATL ($3400)

You can’t have expensive Rockies at ALL the positions, so if Arenado is the one you’re sacrificing I might look Donaldson’s way. He’s not priced for someone who has a .365 wOBA and .247 ISO against RHP since last year, and Nova only has a 15% K rate against RHB this season. The Braves are oozing with upside.

Other options – Hunter Dozier, Renato Nunez, Vlad Guerrero, Gio Urshela, Logan Forsythe

SHORTSTOP

TOP PLAY

Trevor Story, COL ($4300)

This is no surprise, and I actually like Story more than Arenado of the two top COL righties. He matches his 3B teammate in power upside with a .250 ISO against RHP since last year, and Story also brings a 0.028 SB/PA to the table. Agrazal isn’t striking anyone out tonight, and Story will hit first or second which gives him a tiny bit more PA equity. Of the three highest-priced Rockies on this slate, Story is my top priority given Agrazal has actually been worse against righties.

Other options – Alex Bregman, Trea Turner, Jorge Polanco, Kevin Newman, Xander Bogaerts, Marcus Semien

VALUE PLAY

Garrett Hampson, COL ($2800)

If you disagree with me on Rockies priority plays and are fading Story, I would do it for cheaper COL value. Hampson isn’t the best hitter with only a .121 ISO against RHP, but he also brings a 0.038 SB/PA to the game and is sub-3k Coors access which is silly. If there’s any time to unlock more from him, it’s tonight.

Other options – Jonathan Villar, Elvis Andrus, JP Crawford

OUTFIELD

TOP PLAY

Charlie Blackmon, COL ($4400)

I have a feeling Blackmon will be the chalkiest Rockie on the slate given he has the platoon edge and a cheaper price tag than Arenado and Story, and I’ll try to get him into my cash lineups as well. As bad as Dario Agrazal has been, he projects to be even worse with his 4.41 ERA and 6.38 xFIP, and his inability to miss bats will be his doom tonight. Agrazal has been better against LHB, but Blackmon has a .380 wOBA and .265 ISO against RHP since last year.

Other options – Starling Marte, Bryan Reynolds, Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, George Springer, Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Mike Trout, Ronald Acuna, Juan Soto

VALUE PLAY

Ian Desmond, COL ($3200)

Desmond has declined to be one of the lesser hitters on the Rockies, but he’s still underpriced for a Coors bat. He should probably hit sixth which is fine, but we recently saw him hit cleanup which would vault his projection significantly. Desmond still has speed (0.020 SB/PA) and a usable .179 ISO against RHP since last year, and we’ve already spoken about how bad Agrazal is against RHP.

Other options – Mark Canha, Khris Davis, Chad Pinder, Joc Pederson, Anthony Santander, Melky Cabrera, Jorge Soler, Alex Gordon, Michael Conforto, Justin Upton, Hunter Renfroe, Manuel Margot, Tim Lopes

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