FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 8/28/19


I’m back to school today, and last year I pulled out a 2k GPP win on FanDuel on “back to school day” (#NarrativesThatDontExist). It would be nice if that happened again, but I’ll simply settle for grinding out some more NFL bankroll. We have an 11-game Wednesday slate, and some interesting decisions to make. I may be late to chat tonight, but I will be there before lock. The others will take good care of you, and follow me on twitter @jac3600!

STARTING PITCHER

TOP PLAY

Max Scherzer, WAS ($11,400)

You HAVE to watch for any prospective pitch counts here since Max topped out at 71 in his first outing back from the IL. That said, if Max even gets to 90-95, he’s a phenomenal play against an Orioles team that ranks 25th in wOBA against RHP and will lose the DH. Before his injury, Scherzer was considered the frontrunner for the NL Cy Young with a 2.95 SIERA, 34.8% K rate (with an amazing 17% swinging strike rate), and a 4.7% BB rate. He is a massive -450 favorite with a slate low 2.9 IRTA. He’ll cost you Coors bats, but man does he look good in cash.

Other options – Gerrit Cole, Noah Syndergaard

VALUE PLAY

Anthony DeSclafani, CIN ($7600)

It’s hard to pass on the incredible potential of the top three options, but if you want Coors bats, DeSclafani is a viable (albeit more risky) option. His peripherals aren’t elite by any means, but the Marlins lineup never features more than two lefties and DeSclafani has a 3.31 xFIP with a 26.1% K rate and a47.8% GB rate to RHB. The Marlins rank 29th in both wOBA and wRC+ against RHP with the sixth highest K rate against them. There is a ton of high-level offense going tonight, so spending down will be very tempting.

Other options – Kenta Maeda, Jake Odorizzi, Aaron Civale, Kyle Hendricks, Mike Foltynewicz, Patrick Sandoval

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

TOP PLAY

Mitch Moreland, BOS ($3600)

It’s a Coors slate too, and Red Sox have an IRT pushing EIGHT RUNS tonight. Moreland hit fifth yesterday which would make him a tremendous play again today as he’s posted a .236 ISO against RHP since last year. I will say this about Peter Lambert – he’s only allowed one homer over the past four starts, but it’s no reason not to attack him as he’s allowed a .393 wOBA, .225 ISO, and 45.6% HHR to LHB this season. Moreland is cheaper access to an incredible offense tonight.

Other options – Freddie Freeman, Carlos Santana, Jose Abreu, Matt Olson

VALUE PLAY

Matt Adams, WAS ($2900)

The Nationals crashed and burned spectacularly yesterday, but don’t let it deter you from attacking with them again today. Adams will hit fifth or sixth in this one and he brings a .257 ISO against RHP over the past two years. Asher Wojchiechowski’s regression is hitting hard, and he’s been brutalized by LHB for a .435 wOBA and .250 ISO. He’s also backed by a bullpen that ranks last in ERA, WHIP, SIERA, and HR/FB%. Lock and load.

Other options – Daniel Murphy, CJ Cron, Danny Santana, Justin Smoak, Seth Brown

Catcher values – Mitch Garver, Christian Vasquez, Roberto Perez, Yan Gomes

SECOND BASE

TOP PLAY

Max Muncy, LAD ($3800)

With a bad park rating and an unknown SP, this is a GPP play only, but it can’t be ignored that Muncy has a 56% HHR over his last 15 games. That kind of upside can win you a tournament, and he’ll be low owned with so many cheaper options.

Other options – Jose Altuve, Ryan McMahon

VALUE PLAY

Brian Dozier, WAS ($2400)

Dozier crushed me a bit not being in the lineup yesterday, but it all worked out. I hope he’s back in there today, because Woj is allowing a ton of hard contact to RHB now as well even though the K rate is still high. The Nats have an IRT of 6.1 runs, and Dozier has a .208 ISO against RHP since last year.

Other options – Brock Holt, Jason Kipnis, Ozzie Albies, Whit Merrifield, Nick Solak

THIRD BASE

TOP PLAY

Rafael Devers, BOS ($4600)

My goodness – Devers is just jumping off the page at me tonight, even moreso than yesterday. He has buried RHP this season for a .392 wOBA, .278 ISO, and a 42% HHR, and he’ll get the Coors boost hitting second on the road. Like yesterday, Betts’ SB equity probably gives him the edge as the top overall hitter, but mine is Devers with the platoon edge for the second straight day.

Other options – Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rendon, Miguel Sano, Matt Chapman, Josh Donaldson

VALUE PLAY

Yoan Moncada, CHW ($3200)

It’s tough to pay down on a position loaded with opportunity cost, but Moncada has a 45.7% HHR since returning from the IL and has has a .404 wOBA and .272 ISO against RHP this year. Jake Odorizzi has bombed in the second half with a velocity drop, and his 34.4% GB rate is really coming back to bite him.

Other options – Justin Turner, Vlad Guerrero, David Fletcher

SHORTSTOP

TOP PLAY

Xander Bogaerts, BOS ($4100)

Bogaerts continues the attack of the Red Sox. He homered yesterday and now has a 34.3% HHR over his last 15 games. Even with the strides he’s made with the platoon edge this season, Bogaerts continues to be a powerhouse in the reverse split with a .245 ISO against RHP. He’s more than viable in all formats, but I do have him fourth on the pecking order of the top four BOS bats for cash.

Other options – Trevor Story, Francisco Lindor, Trea Turner, Alex Bregman, Marcus Semien, Jorge Polanco

VALUE PLAY

Garrett Hampson, COL ($2700)

Hampson is not the best hitter, but he still gives you cheap exposure to a Coors game which is always a viable strategy. Eduardo Rodriguez is a solid pitcher which has led to an IRT under six for the Rockies, but 5.9 is hardly anything to fade, and E-Rod has allowed a 12% BB rate to RHB this season while posting a 4.51 SIERA which far glosses over his ERA.

Other options – Elvis Andrus, Corey Seager, Mike Freeman

OUTFIELD

TOP PLAY

Mookie Betts, BOS ($4500)

Betts had a 0-fer yesterday making him a chalk bust, but there’s no way I’m letting it deter me tonight. He has a 44.7% HHR over his last 15, a .377 wOBA and .225 ISO against RHP since last year, and a 0.039 SB/PA since last year as well. In addition, he’ll lead off in Coors which gives him the highest PA equity of any hitter on the slate. If you go cheap at SP, you’ll want to lock in Betts in addition to another top BOS bat. If you pay up at SP, decisions will have to be made, as it will be tough to even fit in one.

Other options – JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Juan Soto, Adam Eaton, Mike Trout, Ronald Acuna, Nelson Cruz, Cody Bellinger, Charlie Blackmon, George Springer

VALUE PLAY

Shohei Ohtani, LAA ($3400)

Lost in all the madness of Coors, Washington, and Minnesota is the fact that the Angels have just as good a matchup as any other team on this slate, and their 5.4 IRT is less simply due to the park factor and overall “average-ness” of the lineup outside of Trout. Ohtani’s price is down, and he is a great cash value against Ariel Jurado who has just had a miserable year with a 5.07 SIERA, 15.6% K rate, and 43.9% HHR allowed (48.1% to LHB). Ohtani is sporting a .371 wOBA and .265 ISO against RHP since last year and has a 30.8% HHR over his last 15.

Other options – Justin Upton, Kole Calhoun, Yasiel Puig, Oscar Mercado, Franmil Reyes, Tyler Naquin, Marwin Gonzalez, Joc Pederson, Victor Robles, Khris Davis, Robbie Grossman, Adam Duvall, Matt Joyce

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