Wowza, look at tonight. We have elite pitchers in elite matchups, and somehow we have to fit in the Red Sox/Rockies game in Coors against two miserable pitchers. You are going to NEED our fantastic FTA crew to find out the best route to take for both cash and GPPs, and make sure to follow me on twitter @jac3600. Good luck tonight!
Luis Castillo, CIN ($11,000)
My goodness this is difficult. Just to recap, we have Buehler vs SD, Castillo vs MIA, and Corbin vs BAL (all are incredible matchups), and we also have Verlander. There are others on this slate too, but I have to give Castillo the edge over all this greatness. First off, in a sea of good matchups, his is the best as Miami is ranked 29th in wOBA and 29th in wRC+ against RHP with the sixth highest K rate against. Castillo’s rates are fantastic with a 28.5% K rate and 54.6% GB rate, and his 16% swinging strike rate is identical to Verlander’s. Miami is predominantly right-handed and Castillo has a 3.42 FIP against RHP while holding them to a .247 wOBA. It’s tough, but this is the way I’m going right now.
Other options – Justin Verlander, Walker Buehler, Patrick Corbin, Charlie Morton
Yu Darvish, CHC ($9000)
Trivia question – of all 30 pitchers on this slate, who has allowed the lowest HHR at 30.4%. OK, I didn’t really hide that well, but it’s Darvish. Outside of his rough outing against the Giants last time out, Darvish has matched the floor and ceiling of the guys above, with a 3.21 FIP and a 31.8% K rate over his last ten starts. The Mets are a neutral matchup, but Darvish has a 29.2% K rate and a 45.8% GB rate on the season. You can’t use him in cash with his control issues, but he’s my favorite GPP option as a pivot off the top guys above.
Other options – Andrew Heaney, Mike Soroka, Caleb Smith, Mike Minor, Marcus Stroman, Mike Leake
TOP PLAY AND TOP VALUE
Daniel Murphy, COL ($3400)
Since starting pitching is such a premium, we’re going to have to be very cognizant of how we get Coors exposure since it’s opened with an O/U of 14 runs. Murphy is a beautiful way to do this as he’s underpriced, and he’s also hot with a 1.012 OPS over his last ten games to go along with a 34.2% HHR. Rick Porcello has been awful this year, pitching to a 5.09 SIERA, a 1.41 WHIP and a 7.7% swinging strike rate, and Murphy has a .363 wOBA and .212 ISO against RHP since last year. Lock him in no matter who you pitch.
Other options – Freddie Freeman, Carlos Santana, Rhys Hoskins, DJ LeMahieu, Mitch Moreland, Josh Bell, Gary Sanchez, JT Realmuto, Matt Olson, Miguel Cabrera, Matt Adams
Catcher values – Yasmani Grandal, Christian Vazquez, Buster Posey, Tony Wolters
Ryan McMahon, COL ($3600)
Check the batting order spot on McMahon, because if he’s 7th or lower that puts a ding in this price tag. However, he gets the same amazing matchup described above, and he’s been rocking the ball for a 45.2% HHR over the last 15 games. He’s been pedestrian as far as power goes against RHP, but he does have a 45.8% HHR against them.
Other options – Gleyber Torres, Max Muncy
Brian Dozier, WAS ($2300)
Dozier is a fantastic way to grab value on this slate, as Washington comes in with an IRT of six runs against the awful Baltimore pitching staff. I’m hoping he hits sixth, but he’s even viable hitting 7th or 8th on this particular slate. The O’s pitching staff ranks last in SIERA and wOBA allowed, and Aaron Brooks only has a 16% K rate against RHB. Dozier has been fine in the reverse split, with a .208 ISO.
Other options – Jason Kipnis, Whit Merrifield, Ozzie Albies, Brock Holt
Rafael Devers, BOS ($4500)
Devers is my top overall hitter tonight regardless of position, which is a TOUGH call. The Rockies have promoted Rico Garcia for this start, and he was amazing in AA last year but has been equally bad in AAA this year, allowing 2.11 HR/9 while posting a 6.54 FIP and a 34.2% GB rate. The Red Sox have an IRT of seven runs which leads the slate, and it’s possible that goes up as the day goes on. Devers is having an MVP-caliber season, and he has hammered RHP for a .392 wOBA and .278 ISO.
Other options – Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rendon, Josh Donaldson, Mike Moustakas, Matt Chapman
Scott Kingery, PHI ($3200)
I’m hoping Kingery gets a lineup boost in this one, as he’s posted a .238 wOBA against LHP this year, and he has an amazing 61.8% HHR against them over the last 30 days. The Phillies have an IRT of 5.4 runs, and Steven Brault has a 5.03 with a 10.6% BB rate this season. The Pirates bullpen is 24th in SIERA as well.
Other options – Justin Turner, Yoan Moncada, Matt Carpenter, Jose Osuna
Xander Bogaerts, BOS ($4100)
Bogaerts and Trevor Story are in essence even here, but I’m going to side with Bogaerts who is priced $200 cheaper and are technically facing a worse pitcher and worse bullpen. He has also outhit Story over the last 15 games, posting a 38.2% HHR to Story’s 24.4% mark. He has a .939 OPS this season and a .245 ISO against RHP.
Other options – Trevor Story, Francisco Lindor, Trea Turner, Marcus Semien
Jean Segura, PHI ($3200)
Same idea as the Kingery blurb really. Segura has been hitting cleanup for the Phillies lately, and he brings speed upside as well with a 0.027 SB/PA. He is certainly not known for his power, but that’s not been the case this season and he’s put up an incredible .296 ISO against LHP. He’s a solid value on this slate.
Other options – Kevin Newman, Corey Seager, Amed Rosario, Garrett Hampson
Mookie Betts, BOS ($4600)
Oh my goodness how do we pick? I’m going to side with the Boston hitters as their IRT has gone up to 7.1 runs as this article was being written, and Betts brings the best pairing of power and speed (and he’s also $100 cheaper than his teammate JD). Betts is hot lately with a 41% HHR over his last 15 games, and the leadoff hitter in Coors is always the best option, and you could argue Betts is the top overall players (I still vote Devers).
Other options – JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Charlie Blackmon, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Adam Eaton, Cody Bellinger, Christian Yelich, Ronald Acuna, Mike Trout, Starling Marte, Bryce Harper, Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz
Khris Davis, OAK ($2300)
Davis homered yesterday in Oakland’s 19-run outburst, and he might be a necessary punt on this slate given the fact that you want top starting pitching AND Coors (even though Davis is hitting seventh lately). The A’s have a VERY sneaky IRT of 5.7 runs, and Davis will have the platoon edge where he holds a .259 ISO since the beginning of last year. The KC bullpen is also dead last in SIERA over the last 30 years, and that only went down yesterday.
Other options – Ian Desmond, Yasiel Puig, Oscar Mercado, Eddie Rosario, Bryan Reynolds, Mark Canha, Robbie Grossman, Justin Upton, Trent Grisham, Joc Pederson, Eloy Jimenez, Adam Duvall, Matt JoyceFantasy Baseball