We had yet ANOTHER big GPP hit from a subscriber yesterday, proving that our model is spitting out hot fire right now. Also, our NFL draft guide was updated efficiently for the Andrew Luck and Lamar Miller fallouts, so come give us a look and find out we’re the best kept secret in the industry! I’m also on twitter @jac3600, so let’s tackle tonight’s seven game Monday slate (we get a Coors reprieve until tomorrow).
Sonny Gray, CIN ($11,300)
If you had told me there would be any time this year Sonny Gray would not only be 11.3k but that I’d actually be honoring it, I’d have laughed you out of the proverbial building. That said, here we are, and there’s actually merit to it considering he’s got the coveted matchup against Miami who ranks 29th in wOBA and 29th in wRC+ against RHP with the sixth highest K rate. Despite still having some command issues, Gray has been great this year with a 29.2% K rate and 52.4% GB rate, and Miami has a slate-low 3.3 IRT. There are viable values so I’m passing in cash, but you have to get exposure to Gray tonight.
Other options – None
Dustin May, LAD ($6200)
Dave Roberts has been the ultimate troll with May’s starts, pulling him after 5.2 innings pitched in every game. He’s still dirt cheap on FD and allows you carte blanche with basically whatever hitter you want, though. May hasn’t blown the roof off with any stat at the MLB level so far as far as strikeouts go, but his control has been impeccable (3.8% BB rate) and the Padres have a 26.5% K rate against RHP which is the second highest in the majors. May will also be getting a nice park shift going to San Diego.
Other options – JA Happ, Gio Gonzalez, Tyler Beede, Eric Lauer
Paul Goldschmidt, STL ($3700)
After a slow first half, Goldy has really picked it up post ASB, and he’s still rolling with a 37.8% HHR over his last 15. He’ll hold the platoon edge against Gio Gonzalez, and Goldy has a .379 wOBA and .234 ISO against LHP since last year. His full upside is not truly unlocked due to the strength of the Brewers’ bullpen, but there’s nothing wrong with this play in any format.
Other options – DJ LeMahieu, Gary Sanchez, JT Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins, Josh Bell
Matt Olson, OAK ($3300)
Olson is the elite platoon play almost no one ever talks about. He’s roasted RHP since the beginning of last season for a .360 wOBA and .286 ISO, and he’s also hot lately with a 41.7% HHR over his last 15. Brad Keller is a fine pitcher to attack with a 5.17 SIERA and only a 17.6% K rate, and the KC bullpen has the worst SIERA over the past 30 days.
Other options – Christian Walker, Eric Hosmer, Eric Thames, Josh VanMeter
Catcher values – Yasmani Grandal, Yadier Molina, Buster Posey, Elias Diaz
Max Muncy, LAD ($4000)
Muncy is a much better play in the platoon split, but he’s honestly held his own against LHP over the past two years too with a .204 ISO. What really stands out is how hot he’s been lately with an incredible 55.6% HHR over his last 15, and that’s with a very pedestrian showing the Dodgers had over the weekend against the Yankees (woohoo). Eric Lauer struggles to miss bats (7.7% swinging strike rate) and has allowed a 42.7% HHR this season.
Other options – Gleyber Torres, Ketel Marte, Keston Huira
Whit Merrifield, KC ($3000)
Homer Bailey is certainly not the worst pitcher on the slate but he’s also not a good one (4.76 SIERA, 44.3% HHR allowed). Merrifield is somewhat cold (12.4% HHR last 15), but $3000 is too cheap for a guy who has 15 homers and 16 steals. His 0.046 SB/PA dwarfs the rest of the position, and Bailey is getting a park downgrade in KC.
Other options – Cesar Hernandez, Jurickson Profar, Isan Diaz
Mike Moustakas, MIL ($3700)
Moustakas carries the highest platoon upside at the position with a .357 wOBA and .274 ISO since last year, and Adam Wainwright has really struggled against LHB this year. He’s allowed a .377 wOBA and 1.77 HR/9 while walking 14.2% of them, and the Brewers carry a nice IRT of 5.1 on this short slate.
Other options – Eduardo Escobar, Manny Machado, Eugenio Suarez, Matt Chapman
Justin Turner, LAD ($3400)
The negative park shift seem to be keeping the Dodgers’ IRT (4.8) in check, and the five runs they scored in the weekend series against the Yankees may be a factor too. Turner was not slowed down at all, though, and I really like him at his price tag. He has a 35.6% HHR over his last 15 games and has a .355 wOBA and .204 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last season. I think the Dodgers are one of the sneakier stacks tonight against Lauer and the Padres bullpen.
Other options – Gio Urshela, Matt Carpenter, Jose Osuna
Marcus Semien, OAK ($3800)
I wish Semien was a little cheaper, but he’s hot right now with a 36.6% HHR over his last 15 which seems to be baked into his price tag. He’ll lead off on the road which almost guaranteed him five PAs, and he has nine innings of upside against the KC bullpen that has been the worst one over the past 30 days. I prefer Semien as part of A’s stacks in GPPs, but anyone is playable at the top end of the position if you go cheap at SP.
Other options – Didi Gregorius
Paul DeJong, STL ($3400)
DeJong has always been better in the reverse split, but he’s really been good against LHP since last year with a .212 ISO and a 12.1% BB rate. The BB floor really helps in this matchup as Gio’s 10% BB rate makes him a little more prone to blowups, and coupling that with DeJong’s HR upside makes him a savvy play. He also won’t hit any higher than fifth.
Other options – Jean Segura, Kevin Newman, Donovan Solano
Aaron Judge, NYY ($4100)
Is Judge back? It certainly seems that way, as he has a 50% HHR over his last 15 games while almost homering in all three games of the Dodgers series (and two were against Ryu and Kershaw). As of this writing the Mariners have still not announced who their SP will be, but there’s no one on their roster that will make you shy away from Judge (or any Yankees for that matter). We haven’t mentioned the Yanks yet, but they actually carry the highest IRT on the slate at 5.6 runs, and that’s liable to go up once the starter is revealed.
Other options – Cody Bellinger, Christian Yelich, Bryce Harper, Corey Dickerson, Marcell Ozuna, Aristedes Aquino, Starling Marte
Khris Davis, OAK ($2400)
I mean, I don’t know. The guy just hasn’t been able to put it together this year, but his price tag is FULL baked into that. Ultimately, we’re talking about the guy who has led the majors in homers since the beginning of 2016 at almost the minimum price tag, so I can’t see fading him despite the fact that he’s still pretty cold (11.1% HHR last 15). Davis has been bumped to seventh in the order, but he has a .268 ISO against RHP since last year and the KC pitching staff is terrible. At the very least, get him in GPPs if you’re not comfortable in cash.
Other options – AJ Pollock, Mark Canha, Robbie Grossman, Trent Grisham, Wil Myers, Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe, Brett Gardner, Mike Tauchman, Cameron Maybin, Bryan Reynolds, Alex Gordon, Jarrod Dyson,Fantasy Baseball