If you bet on the Astros to win at their incredible odds, you were sorely disappointed. We DFS-ers were rewarded with vintage Verlander, however, who didn’t get the win but went the distance with 11 strikeouts. Tonight’s strategy is going to be almost exactly the same as Gerrit Cole is the next man up against the Tigers, so we’ll be value hunting for offense. Follow me on twitter @jac3600, and see you in chat later!
Gerrit Cole, HOU ($12,200)
Cole is the same price as Verlander was yesterday, and he’s every bit of a lock again (even moreso honestly, as he doesn’t have Walker Buehler competing with him. As a reminder, the Tigers rank last in wOBA against RHP with the highest K rate, and Cole has opened up as a monster favorite at -500 with a 2.5 IRTA. Believe it or not, Cole’s numbers are even better than Verlander’s, with a 2.94 SIERA, 36.8% K rate, and 15.6% swinging strike rate. Don’t mess this up 🙂
Other options – Noah Syndergaard, Mike Soroka
Kenta Maeda, LAD ($7800)
Maeda is the clear GPP pivot to stack bats, and he’s going to be your SP2 on DK in cash as well. Maeda is not always the poster child for length, but he’s rocking a 14.2% swinging strike rate this season and will face a Blue Jays lineup that will be undergoing a park downgrade and losing the DH (which means Vlad, Smoak, or maybe even both like yesterday). He’s a -275 favorite (which on any other slate would be the best) with only a 3.7 IRTA.
Other options – German Marquez, Tanner Roark, Masahiro Tanaka, Miles Mikolas
Max Muncy, LAD ($4000)
I’ll keep this short because I wrote up Muncy yesterday, and he homered again. He’s now upped his HHR over the last 15 games to 50%, and Jacob Waguespack has posted a 4.82 SIERA with only an 18% K rate this year. The Jays bullpen is 24th in SIERA, and the Dodgers have an IRT of 5.8 runs.
Other options – Freddie Freeman, Jose Abreu, Pete Alonso, Matt Olson, Danny Santana, Gary Sanchez
Ji-Man Choi, TB ($3000)
The Rays are going to be your path to Cole today, and there are far worse ways you can do that, as they offer big time upside. They will be traveling to Baltimore which has been DFS gold this season, and Choi has been solid against RHP since the beginning of last year with a .185 ISO. Asher Wojchichowski has had terrific numbers against righties this year, but has been obliterated by LHB for a .425 wOBA and .250 ISO, and is backed by the league’s worst bullpen.
Other options – Jesus Aguilar, Paul Goldschmidt, Daniel Murphy, Justin Smoak, Matt Skole
Catcher values – Travis d’Arnaud, Robinson Chirinos, Kurt Suzuki
TOP PLAY AND TOP VALUE
Ozzie Albies, ATL ($3300)
I don’t really understand why Albies’ price has dropped so much on FD. He is entrenched in the number two spot for the Braves and has a very nice 34% HHR over his last 15 games. The Braves offense has an IRT of 5.9 runs against Sandy Alcantara whose 5.73 SIERA ranks dead last for all qualified pitchers, and he’s only struck out 16.4% of batters while walking 11.2% of them. Albies has power and speed, and a .182 ISO against RHP since last year.
Other options – Jose Altuve, Eric Sogard, Rougned Odor, Cavan Biggio, Brian Dozier, Isan Diaz
Alex Bregman, HOU ($4400)
Bregman is going to be more of a luxury on this slate, but I’m honestly surprised the Astros’ IRT of 5.5 isn’t higher. Jordan Zimmermann is returning for the Tigers and he looks simply broken, with a 5.11 SIERA and 1.69 HR/9 allowed since last year. Alex Bregman has a very nice 33.3% HHR over the last 15 games, and has a .377 wOBA and .246 ISO against same-handed pitching since last year. Astros stacks look great in GPPs, and Bregman is a cornerstone.
Other options – Anthony Rendon, Matt Chapman, Josh Donaldson
Josh Donaldson, ATL ($3500)
Donaldson seems a bit too cheap for the floor/ceiling combo he brings tonight. I mentioned the positive context for the Braves against Alcantara, and Donaldson has been raking lately with a 43.5% HHR over his last 15 games. He’s also been very adequate in the reverse split, with a .365 wOBA and .247 ISO against RHP since last year. He can be fit in with Cole, which is pretty big on this slate.
Other options – Jose Ramirez, Justin Turner, Renato Nunez, Logan Forsythe, Matt Duffy
Trea Turner, WAS ($4300)
Turner is fully priced now, but he’s got eight multi hit games in his last 14 with a 27.8% HHR. His SB equity is through the roof at 0.061 SB/PA, and he’ll have the platoon edge against Steven Brault who has a 5.17 SIERA against RHP since last year and an 11% BB rate against all batters this season. Like most of the high-priced players in this article, he’s a GPP play.
Other options – Bo Bichette, Francisco Lindor
Elvis Andrus, TEX ($3100)
Andrus is the logical cash play on FD at the position. He comes with a very affordable price tag and one of the best contexts on the slate as it will be hot in Chicago. The Rangers have an IRT of 5.5 runs against Ross Detwiler who has a 12.7% K rate against RHP since the beginning of last season, and Andrus is an event player. The White Sox bullpen ranks 23rd in SIERA.
Other options – Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius, Amed Rosario, Willy Adames
Austin Meadows/Tommy Pham, TB ($3700/$3900)
It’s fun to not write about Trout or the Red Sox OFs once in awhile, and you can afford one of these guys even if (when) you roster Cole as your SP. Meadows is definitely my preference of the two as attacking Woj with lefties has been the key to success, and Meadows has posted a .376 wOBA and .249 ISO against RHP this season. Pham is a complete event player too, however, and the Rays will have nine innings of upside against the BAL pitching staff in Camden Yards. Their 5.9 IRT is currently tied with the Braves for the best on the slate.
Other options – Cody Bellinger, Ronald Acuna, Hunter Pence, Shin Soo Choo, Aaron Judge, George Springer, Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez, Juan Soto, AJ Pollock
Joc Pederson, LAD ($3200)
Joc led off last game but hit eighth the game before, so his lineup spot is everything. If he’s leading off again, he’s one of the top values on the slate for the Dodgers and their 5.7 IRT. Joc comes with PH risk, but he has a .373 wOBA and .286 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. He also has a 32% HHR over his last 15.
Other options – Kevin Kiermaier, Michael Conforto, Eloy Jimenez, Leury Garcia, Adam Duvall, Matt Joyce, Dexter Fowler, Randal Grichuk, Khris Davis, Robbie Grossman, Yasiel Puig, Greg Allen, Franmil ReyesFantasy Baseball