After some bonkers offensive nights, yesterday was one of the lowest scoring affairs I’ve seen in awhile. Bauer came through, but the chalk cheap pitchers (Gibson and McKay) were disasters, and no offense really went off outside of Washington (those stacks won all the GPP money). I will once again miss chat tonight, but my cores will be posted and our top-rate crew will take care of you on this 15-game slate. Follow me on twitter @jac3600.
Shane Bieber, CLE ($11,000)
I’m already going against the grain a bit with this pick, and Clayton Kershaw seems like the “obvious” pay up play, especially after he was “vintage Kershaw” against Miami last start. However, the $1200 discount to Biebs has me looking his way instead. Bieber’s matchup is tougher than Kershaw’s, but take a look at these numbers this year:
Kershaw – 3.73 SIERA, 26.2% K rate, 12.6% swinging strike rate, 5.2% BB rate
Bieber – 3.31 SIERA, 30.9% K rate, 14.3% swinging strike rate, 5.1% BB rate.
Biebs has made the ascension into bonafide ace this year, and he’ll be pitching in an NL park which means no DH. He’s still struggled with allowing hard contact to lefties, but the Mets will be without Jeff McNeil and Robinson Cano. They did add Joe Panik which makes them a bit peskier, but he and Michael Conforto were the only lefties in the Mets lineup last game. There are cheaper options, but Biebs is my favorite pay-up.
Other options – Clayton Kershaw, Sonny Gray, Stephen Strasburg, Domingo German, Aaron Nola, Michael Pineda
Cole Hamels, CHC ($7300)
This was another tossup between Hamels and Dallas Keuchel, but I’ll once again lean the way of the better K rate and a slight discount. Hamels’ price has plummeted as he’s coming off two really bad starts in a row, but he seems to be in a “get right” spot against the Giants. They’re a middling team as far as K rates go, but their active hitters rank 27th in wOBA against LHP and the wind is currently blowing in at Wrigley. This has led to an IRT of just 3.7 runs for San Francisco, and Hamels has a very nice 49.4% GB rate and 12.3% swinging strike rate. He’s cash viable if you want to stack bats.
UPDATE: The wind has shifted and now seems to be blowing out. Expect some line movement on this, making Hamels a bit less enticing. I still like him at his price, but Keuchel may have passed him for overall preference.
Other options – Dallas Keuchel, Chris Archer, Aaron Sanchez, Dylan Bundy, Alex Young, Tyler Beede
Rhys Hoskins, PHI ($3800)
The Phillies are in a solid spot tonight going into Boston, especially the righties. Brian Johnson will toe the rubber for the Red Sox tonight and he’s had an ugly year with a 6.05 ERA, 5.50 SIERA, 15.5% K rate, and 41% HHR allowed. The Phils have one of the highest IRTs at 5.6 runs, and Hoskins has battered lefty pitching since last season for a .365 wOBA and .251 ISO. He’s been leading off of late which cuts down on his RBI opportunities, but he’s a virtual lock for five PAs on the road.
Other options – Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Anthony Rizzo, Paul Goldschmidt, Danny Santana, Gary Sanchez, JT Realmuto
Albert Pujols, LAA ($3000)
Pujols came through for the Angels yesterday, homering and even stealing a base. The Angels’ IRT is once again over six runs in the heat of Texas and they should be actively targeted again. The aging Pujols still has a .192 ISO against LHP since last year and Joe Palumbo has bee a wreck at the MLB level so far in his career. The only issue may be playing time as this is game 2 of a doubleheader, and I highly doubt Pujols plays both games.
Other options – Christian Walker, Matt Adams, CJ Cron, Jesus Aguilar, Josh VanMeter
Catcher values – Yasmani Grandal, Brian McCann, Chance Sisco, Max Stassi
Jose Altuve, HOU ($4400)
The Astros are not bursting off the page as they were against Edwin Jackson yesterday, but they still have an IRT of 6.1 runs against Spencer Turnbull and the DET bullpen. Turnbull has actually held his own against righties in his career with a 25.6% K rate and .274 wOBA allowed, but the Astros rank fifth in wOBA against RHP with the lowest K rate against. Altuve has a 30% HHR over his last 15 games and is an event-type player.
Other options – Ketel Marte, Ozzie Albies, Keston Huira
Whit Merrifield, KC ($3200)
Too cheap against BAL’s league worst bullpen. If KC can get to Bundy then Whit could be in for a big night
Alex Bregman, HOU ($4400)
If I’m ranking Astros bats, I actually prefer Brantley and Yordan to the “usual suspects” tonight, but all of them are in play against Spencer Turnbull and the Tigers bullpen. Bundy has been much better against righties in his career, but the fact remains that he has the highest HR/FB rate since last year for all qualified pitchers (18.1%) and is backed by the league’s worst bullpen. Bregman has a .377 wOBA and .246 ISO against RHP since last year and is rocking a 37.5% HHR over his last 15 games.
Other options – Rafael Devers, Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, Eduardo Escobar, Mike Moustakas, Scott Kingery, Jose Ramirez
David Fletcher, LAA ($3100)
In another FanDuel position shift, Fletcher has moved from SS to 3B and represents a very usable value as long as he continues to lead off. He has five multihit games over his last eight with a 22% HHR in that span (a good number for him), and his cash floor is sky high with the three sluggers behind him (all of whom are hitting the ball hard right now). The only potential problem is that 3B is absolutely loaded – I even left out some names above so I didn’t list the entire league.
Other options – Miguel Sano, Matt Carpenter, Matt Thaiss, Sean Rodriguez
Trevor Story, COL ($4200)
Shortstop is very interesting tonight, as Story seems to headline the position even away from Coors. He has a 31.8% HHR over his last 15 games and has posted a .402 wOBA and .312 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last season. Alex Young’s 3.32 ERA is backed by a 4.85 SIERA, and he’s allowed a shade under a 48% HHR to RHB this season. Arizona is not the hitters’ paradise it once was, but it’s still better than average as far as park factor goes and the roof is expected to be open.
Other options – Francisco Lindor, Jorge Polanco, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner, Jean Segura
Corey Seager, LAD ($3300)
The Dodgers look like one of the more underrated stacks tonight with a 5.5 IRT. They are facing Sean Reid-Foley who has a 5.75 SIERA and a 13.7% BB rate this season, and he’s allowed a 44.5% HHR to LHB since last year. Seager has to hit in the top five to fully realize his value, but he has a 39% HHR over his last 15 games and has a .196 ISO against RHP since last year. The Jays bullpen also ranks 24th in SIERA.
Other options – Didi Gregorius, Elvis Andrus, Marcus Semien, Paul DeJong
Mike Trout, LAA ($4900)
It’s a Trout day again, and he’s once again blowing away the field as far as projections go. If you pay up for the likes of Bieber/Kershaw, Trout is going to be tough to fit in, but if you go cheap make sure you lock him in. He’s the best hitter on the planet, and is facing a AAA callup who has posted an 11.00 ERA, a 15.9% K rate, a 32.3% GB rate, and has allowed a 47% HHR. He’s backed by a bullpen that ranks 27th in SIERA, and Trout has a .440 wOBA and .318 ISO against LHP since last year. Whew.
Other options – Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton, George Springer, Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, Ronald Acuna, Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario, Cody Bellinger, Christian Yelich, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi
Joc Pederson, LAD ($2900)
It’s back to Joc for value tonight, as he remains too cheap on FD for the power upside he offers. I mentioned Reid-Foley’s struggles with lefty power, and all Joc has done against RHP since last year is post a .373 wOBA and .286 ISO. He’ll likely continue to lead off, and is one of the top overall values regardless of who you use at SP.
Other options – Yasiel Puig, Franmil Reyes, Oscar Mercado, Trent Grisham, Adam Duvall, Matt Joyce, Khris Davis, Robbie Grossman, Hunter Renfroe, Wil Myers, Manuel Margot, Kole Calhoun, Jesse WinkerFantasy Basketball