We’re officially streaking! I put a nice chunk back into my FD account last night as my cash lineup went nuts, and we have a nine-gamer to tackle today which will hopefully extend the streak. There’s a lot of pitching, and some value offenses to complement it, so let’s see what we can come up with. I MAY not make FTA+ chat tonight, but I’ll certainly give it a shot, and I’m always on twitter @jac3600.
Max Scherzer, WAS ($11,800)
There are cheaper studs, but Mad Max gets my vote even with the added salary. The Reds have dropped to 20th in wRC+ against RHP and are getting a negative park shift going to Washington. Scherzer is a -270 favorite with a 3 IRTA (both slate bests), and Max has now posted an elite 34.4% K rate for the second straight year.
Other options – Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner
Miek Foltynewicz, ATL ($8500)
Folty has had some issues with run prevention lately, but a matchup with the Mets should be a phenomenal cure for that. They now rank 26th in wRC+ against RHP and Folty is rocking a career high 28.4% K rate this season. He’s got troubles with length due to command issues, but the K rate gives him immense GPP upside.
Other options – Nick Pivetta, Mike Montgomery, Felix Hernandez, Yovani Gallardo, Pablo Lopez
Freddie Freeman, ATL ($4300)
Freeman is an elite GPP play as people may shy away from the L/L matchup. That said, Jason Vargas has been flat out awful this year, and he’s still allowed a .371 wOBA and .188 ISO to LHB since the beginning of last year. Braves stacks are going to be popular, and don’t leave Freeman out just because of the L/L matchup.
Other options – Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Carlos Santana, Justin Smoak
Chris Davis, BAL ($2400)
The Orioles are a really thin lineup now that they’ve traded away Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop, but their price tags are exactly what we need to pay for a top SP without sacrificing a great deal of offensive upside. Even with the watered down lineup, Baltimore has an IRT of 4.9 runs against Yovani Gallardo who has been bad for years. Chris Davis’ season has been mostly a disaster, but he’s got a 37.5% HHR over his last 15 games and a .263 ISO against RHP the last three years.
Other options – Steve Pearce, Matt Adams, Justin Bour
Catcher values – Yasmani Grandal, Willson Contreras, Tyler Flowers, Robinson Chirinos
TOP PLAY AND TOP VALUE
Rougned Odor, TEX ($3500)
This is an unfamiliar name to have at the top of the list, and he’s also too cheap. Odor has been hitting second lately and has been killing the ball, with a 34.4% HHR and .302 ISO over his last 15 games, and Texas has the highest IRT on the slate at 5.6 runs. Odor has a .217 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year, and Andrew Cashner has allowed a 46% FB rate to lefties over the last three years.
Other options – Ozzie Albies, Javier Baez, Gleyber Torres, Cesar Hernandez, Ben Zobrist, Dee Gordon
Anthony Rendon, WAS ($3700)
This is more a GPP play since Tyler Mahle has been pretty dominant against RHB, but Rendon has been crushing the ball lately. He’s got a 44% HHR over his last five games with nine hits and eight RBI in that span. Washington has an IRT of five runs, and Rendon should be a key piece in Nats stacks.
Other options – Manny Machado, Miguel Andujar
Adrian Beltre, TEX ($2700)
Beltre doesn’t have the platoon edge, but he’s hitting cleanup for the team with the highest IRT on the slate, and he’ll face a bad pitcher who is now backed by a bad bullpen (Britton, Brach, O’Day all gone). Beltre has been respectful against same-handed pitching with a .174 ISO since the beginning of last year.
Other options – Jurickson Profar, Johan Camargo, Yangervis Solarte, Renato Nunez
Trea Turner, WAS ($3900)
This pick largely echoes the Rendon play, except Turner sacrifices some power and brings a ton more speed to the table. He’s been running wild lately with six SBs in his last four games, and Mahle struggles with holding on runners. Like Rendon, Turner is more a GPP play, and best served in Nationals stacks.
Other options – Elvis Andrus, Jean Segura, Xander Bogaerts
Tim Beckham, BAL ($3100)
Beckham’s price is getting a tad uncomfortable since he’s really not the best hitter, but the cheap-ish Orioles really fit the cash game build perfectly. Beckham will lead off against Gallardo and a lousy Texas bullpen who should be much worse post trade deadline with Kela and Diekman dealt, and Beckham has a 28% HHR his last ten games.
Other options – Asdrubal Cabrera, Brandon Crawford, Addison Russell, Amed Rosario
Giancarlo Stanton, NYY ($4400)
Stanton is expensive and is a tough fit alongside Scherzer, but I want to try every avenue to make it work. Stanton will be in Fenway Park tonight which is paradise for righty bats, and he’s facing Brian Johnson who has allowed a career .173 ISO to RHB. Stanton has been video-game like against lefties in his career, and has a .473 wOBA and .406 ISO against them since the beginning of last year. Try your best to pay for him.
Other options – Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna, Aaron Hicks, AJ Pollock, Nelson Cruz
Shin Soo Choo, TEX ($2900)
Choo’s price makes no sense on FD, and he’s a lock in my opinion. He’ll lead off for Texas who has the highest IRT on the slate, and he’s got a 28.6% HHR his last 15 games. Choo’s incredible on-base streak this year tells you what a solid floor he has for cash games, and he’s got power upside in this matchup against Andrew Cashner. Do not fade in cash.
Other options – Joey Gallo, Willie Calhoun, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Jace Peterson, Trey Mancini, Danny Valencia, Adam Eaton, Derek Dietrich, Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Matt Kemp, Curtis Granderson, Ian Happ, Hunter Renfroe