It was a mixed bag of results for me yesterday in four slates. I won the early FD and lost early DK, and that was reversed on the later main slate (we saw some vintage Kershaw though, huh?). Tonight we have an eight-game slate with some new series going, so let’s have some fun. I’ll see all my FTA peeps in chat tonight, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.
Sonny Gray, CIN ($9800)
It’s a light pitching night if Sonny is leading the way in overall projection, but he really has had a good season for the Reds with a 3.47 FIP, 53.3% GB rate, and 27.9% K rate. The matchup is actually a lot better than it appears, too, as the Cardinals rank 26th in wOBA against RHP with the 11th highest K rate against. He’s a -160 favorite with a 4.2 IRTA, but my only problem is that there are a lot of big bats on this short slate, and we have a cheaper option for cash.
Other options – Yu Darvish
Andrew Heaney, LAA ($6400)
It appears that Heaney is gift-wrapped for us to use in cash tonight, which means he should be megachalk. He’s tailed off with the strikeouts after coming out of the gate firing, but he’s still got a 26.9% K rate with a 13.6% swinging strike rate. His HHR is positively alarming (48.5% mark allowed this year), but the White Sox have the highest K rate since the second half began and will be getting a big time park downgrade going to Anaheim. I don’t mind a fade off his heavy ownership in GPP, but this seems like the time to eat the chalk in cash.
Other options – Marcus Stroman, Alex Young, Drew Smyly, Dereck Rodriguez
Gary Sanchez, NYY ($3800)
The Yankees are certainly sorry to see Baltimore leave town, but they get another fine matchup tonight against Adam Plutko, and Vegas has once again pegged them for an IRT over six runs. Sanchez has a 40% HHR since his return from the IL, and Plutko relies heavily on flyball outs (26.8% GB rate) which could spell disaster in Yankee Stadium. Sanchez has a .263 ISO against RHP since last year, and looks to be one of the better overall plays regardless of position.
Other options – DJ LeMahieu, Freddie Freeman, Pete Alonso, Anthony Rizzo, Danny Santana
Marwin Gonzalez, MIN ($3100)
This pick is totally dependent on Marwin’s batting spot, which can be anywhere from third to eighth. Minnesota is the other team besides the Yankees that have an IRT over six runs tonight, and they are getting an extreme par upgrade going to the heat of Texas (or Coors Field South as we call it in FTA chat). Pedro Payano has a 5.79 xFIP at the MLB level so far, and he wasn’t exactly lighting it up in AAA either with a 5.43 mark. He’s also walked 14.5% of batters he’s faced so far, and is backed by a bullpen that ranks 26th in xFIP.
Other options – CJ Cron, Joey Votto, Jake Lamb
Catcher values – Wilson Ramos, Buster Posey, Jason Castro, Victor Caratini
Gleyber Torres, NYY ($4000)
Torres dropped to sixth in the order yesterday which dings him a little at this price tag, but he’s still the top play and viable in all formats. I’ve already mentioned Adam Plutko’s struggles, and Gleyber is doing just fine with a .218 ISO against same-handed pitching this year.
Other options – Jose Altuve, Ketel Marte, Ozzie Albies
Luis Arraez, MIN ($3000)
Arraez doesn’t have the power upside of a lot of his teammates, but all he’s done since coming to the majors is work the strike zone like a pro (11.1% BB rate, 6.8% K rate). At his price tag, he’s more than viable as a cash value, but I’d likely leave him out of the Minnesota GPP stacks since he’s not lighting it up in the power department (.094 ISO).
Other options – Rougned Odor, Cesar Hernandez, Joe Panik
Kris Bryant, CHC ($3800)
We’ll go away from the Yankees here for a minute (even though the hot-hitting Gio Urshela is very enticing). Bryant stands out as a fantastic play at under 4k as he’s been brutalizing LHP this season for a .427 wOBA and .365 ISO, and the park factor is solid in Philly. Drew Smyly has been a trendy pick lately, but let’s not forget he’s still allowed a 46.2% HHR and 2.76 HR/9 while posting a 5.16 SIERA.
Other options – Gio Urshela, Alex Bregman, Eduardo Escobar, Eugenio Suarez, Jose Ramirez
Miguel Sano, MIN ($3200)
Sano is still a solid value on FD at his price tag. He has a 43.8% HHR over his last 15 games and has posted an excellent .242 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. He has been getting much better lineup spots of late with Nelson Cruz on the IL, and has made the most of the opportunity lately.
Other options – Josh Donaldson, Matt Carpenter, Logan Forsythe
Javier Baez, CHC ($4000)
Jorge Polanco seems to make more sense at $300 less, but he’s been swinging an ice cold bat lately (7.3% HHR last 15) so I’m leaning the way of Baez. He gets the same cookie matchup I just mentioned with Bryant, and Baez has also destroyed LHP this season for a .352 ISO. He also adds some speed equity to the equation (0.021 SB/PA).
Other options – Jorge Polanco, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa
Didi Gregorius, NYY ($3200)
Didi continues to be underpriced on FD despite only a 17.8% HHR over his last 15, and he’s the logical choice for cash. He should continue to hit cleanup and will have the platoon edge and the short RF porch in Yankee Stadium. Plutko has been awful against LHP with a 10.3% K rate and a 6.14 xFIP, and he’s allowed 1.93 HR/9 to them.
Other options – Elvis Andrus, Tim Anderson, David Fletcher, Amed Rosario
Aaron Judge, NYY ($3900)
All right, let’s do this again. Judge has been a polarizing play lately, but he continues to hit the ball hard (33.6% HHR this season which is higher than Mike Trout), and he has a .386 wOBA and .284 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. I can’t call him a lock with Mike Trout and the big Twins OFs on the slate as well, but Judge is striking me as the best per-dollar play once again.
Other options – Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, George Springer, Bryce Harper, Ronald Acuna, George Springer, Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, Nick Castellanos
Michael Conforto, NYM ($3400)
In a must-win game for the Mets, Conforto stands out as a solid value at $3400. He has been elite against RHP this season with a .402 wOBA and .274 ISO, and Julio Teheran has always had problems in the platoon split (career 1.32 HR/9 allowed and a 17.4% K rate). He should hit way up in the order against the righty, especially with Jeff McNeil on the IL.
Other options – Yasiel Puig, David Peralta, Brett Gardner, Mike Tauchman, Nick Senzel, Josh VanMeter, Shin Soo Choo, Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, Corey Dickerson, Eloy Jimenez, Khris DavisFantasy Baseball