FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 8/13/19


FTA crushed it again yesterday, heavily touting the Toronto stack in GPP while hitting on a lot of key cash plays (Gleyber, Franmil, Pruitt). Today we have a full slate, but strategy could be exponentially different on each site as DraftKings will include the second HOU/CHW game and FanDuel will not. The reason that’s so important is because Gerrit Cole is the slated pitcher in game 2, and his price tag on DK is going to make you build a lot differently than on FD. We’ll be all over both sites in FTA chat tonight, and make sure to follow me on twitter @jac3600.

STARTING PITCHER

TOP PLAY

Matthew Boyd, DET ($10,400)

With no Gerrit Cole to worry about, we can expand our options a bit on FD, and there is still shortage of good pitching. Remember, though, we still have to somehow fit in these top offenses so make sure to leave yourself enough room. Boyd had a rough outing against KC last time but it really does seem like an outlier performance. He’s been stellar all season with a 3.34 SIERA and a 31.9% K rate, and tonight he’ll take on the Mariners who have the highest K rate in the league against LHP (26.4%). Boyd just faced these same Mariners on 7/28 and punched out ten of them over 6.1 innings while collecting the win. His mediocre-ish second half has depressed his price tag, and this is a good time to pounce.

Other options – Mike Clevinger, Chris Sale, Domingo German

VALUE PLAY

Madison Bumgarner, SF ($8600)

There are definitely cheaper options in cash as well tonight if you want to focus a little more on offense (which was the key strategy last night). Bumgarner does not have the best matchup, as the A’s rank sixth in wOBA against LHP with the lowest K rate against them as well. That said, they will likely lose Khris Davis in the lineup in favor of the pitcher, which is a sizable downgrade, and Bumgarner’s appeal in cash is his ability to provide length. Of his 24 starts this season, MadBum has gone six innings or more in 19 of them and posted 15 quality starts. His price is friendly for such a high floor, even if the upside isn’t there.

Other options – Jack Flaherty, Max Fried, Brendan McKay, Jon Gray, Eric Lauer, Thomas Pannone

UPDATE: Since this article was published, Clayton Kershaw was moved to tomorrow and Dustin May will now start today against the Marlins. He is $5800 and is 100% a cash lock against Miami who is last in wOBA and 29th in wRC+ against RHP with the fifth highest K rate. He’s also your path to stacking the expensive teams in GPP.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

TOP PLAY

D.J. LeMahieu, NYY ($4300)

Like yesterday, the key plays are once again going to be centered largely around the Yankees and Coors teams. D.J. continues to post MVP numbers for the Yanks and is now up to a 38.5% HHR over his last 15 games. He has bashed LHP this season for a .405 wOBA, .255 ISO, and 45.2% HHR, and is taking on John Means and his 4.92 SIERA. After Means it’s the BAL bullpen, and we know what that means…

Other options – Gary Sanchez, Paul Goldschmidt, Pete Alonso, Anthony Rizzo, Freddie Freeman, Christian Walker, Rhys Hoskins, Joey Votto

VALUE PLAY

Daniel Murphy, COL ($3200)

Zac Gallen has been solid so far in his rookie year, but there are some red flags that could rear their ugly heads in Colorado (2.40 ERA/4.42 SIERA, 12.5% BB rate, 33.3% GB rate) and I have no issue fully attacking him. Vegas doesn’t either as the Rox have an IRT of 6.3 runs, and Daniel Murphy is flat-out too cheap. He has a .210 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last season, and he’s been primarily hitting third with David Dahl on the IL.

Other options – Jake Lamb, Miguel Cabrera, Marwin Gonzalez, Justin Smoak

Catcher values – JT Realmuto, Yasmani Grandal, Victor Caratini, Kurt Suzuki

SECOND BASE

TOP PLAY

Gleyber Torres, NYY ($3600)

Come on with this pricing, FanDuel. There is no reason whatsoever Gleyber should be under 4k anymore, and ESPECIALLY not when he’s facing Baltimore. Gleyber hit three more homers during yesterday’s doubleheader which now brings his total up to 13 against the Orioles in 15 games (and an OPS of almost 2.000). He has the platoon edge today where he has a .238 ISO this year, and then gets the bullpen. DO NOT FADE IN CASH.

Other options – Ketel Marte, Max Muncy, Ozzie Albies

VALUE PLAY

Brian Dozier, WAS ($2300)

Remember – this is a GPP option, or a complement to Gleyber because he’s the best value as well. Dozier is definitely viable with a top six lineup spot, as he’s still raking against LHP (.345 wOBA and .222 ISO against LHP since last year). The Nationals have a nice little IRT of 5.3 runs against Alex Wood, and Dozier and Kurt Suzuki (see above) could provide cheap pop so you can pay for a pitcher while rostering more than one big bat.

Other options – Cavan Biggio, Keston Huira, Niko Goodrum, Ryan McMahon

THIRD BASE

TOP PLAY

Nolan Arenado, COL ($4400)

As I said, I really don’t mind loading up on Rockies tonight, and the big righties (Arenado and Story) kinda have sneakier value than you’d think. It’s a small sample size, but Gallen has actually been a good deal worse against RHP with a 5.87 xFIP and only a 23.8% K rate as opposed to 34% against LHP. Arenado continues to crush at Coors, and he has a .256 ISO against same-handed pitching since last year.

Other options – Eduardo Escobar, Gio Urshela, Anthony Rendon, Eugenio Suarez, Rafael Devers, Kris Bryant

VALUE PLAY

Miguel Sano, MIN ($3100)

Even with the loaded options above, Sano sneaks in as a terrific value that you can use in any format tonight. Even without Nelson Cruz, the Twins still rank fourth in wOBA and first in ISO against RHP, and are facing a reverse split pitcher in Chase Anderson. Sano has been battering the ball lately with a 45.2% HHR over his last 15 games, and we’ve seen him move into Cruz’s three-hole in recent Twins lineups.

Other options – Matt Carpenter, Tommy Edman, Josh Donaldson, Scott Kingery

SHORTSTOP

TOP PLAY

Trevor Story, COL ($4500)

FanDuel has finally priced Story up a bit which at least makes the decision more difficult. He had another huge day yesterday and now has a 38.5% HHR over his last 15 and a 44.4% HHR over his last ten. Like Arenado, Story is just fine in the reverse split (.348 wOBA and .250 ISO against RHP since last year), and he’s worth his price in all formats.

Other options – Javier Baez, Fernando Tatis, Jorge Polanco, Paul DeJong

VALUE PLAY

Trea Turner, WAS ($3500)

As good as Story looks, there’s really no need to pay the extra $1000 for him with Turner continuing to be mispriced on FD. As far as power goes, Turner is better against righties, but that’s no reason to fade him as he has a 32% HHR over his last ten and will run at will. Leading off for this Nats squad with major speed equity (0.061 SB/PA) makes this play look like a bargain.

Other options – Elvis Andrus, Didi Gregorius, Jean Segura, Amed Rosario, Corey Seager

OUTFIELD

TOP PLAY

Aaron Judge, NYY ($4000)

I imagine the DFS world is a touch frustrated with Judge. I’ve even seen him likened to Chris Davis by some other analysts on twitter. If you want to back off based on recent game logs, I understand, but he’s still hitting the ball well (33.3% HHR over his last ten) and will hit second for the Yankees who have an IRT of 6.4 runs. If you decide you need to spend the extra $600-800 into the Blackmon/Trout range, I don’t argue, but don’t ignore the appeal of saving the money to Judge for the same upside.

Other options – Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Charlie Blackmon, Max Kepler, David Peralta, Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, Marcell Ozuna, Shin Soo Choo, Hunter Pence, Starling Marte, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez

VALUE PLAY

Nick Castellanos, CHC ($3500)

We haven’t really touched on the Cubs yet, who I think are in a sneaky smash spot tonight. It’s tough to get a gauge on Jason Vargas as he’s trolled us multiple times this season, but the fact remains that he’s really not that good a pitcher. He’s given up a 39.5% HHR this year and his 4.09 ERA is backed by a 5.16 SIERA which ranks in the bottom ten of all qualified pitchers. Castellanos has done nothing but rake since joining the Cubs with a 46.5% HHR, six doubles, and three homers. He’s got a .226 ISO against LHP since last year, and the Philly bullpen is bad too.

Other options – Eddie Rosario, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, Albert Almora, Adam Jones, Jesse Winker, Josh VanMeter, Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler

Fantasy Baseball