Yesterday’s lineups didn’t have enough exposure to the 27 run outburst of the BOS/BAL game, and PIT/SF put up a surprising 23 runs too! Today we turn our attention to a ten-game main slate, and once again we’ll need to find a balance of elite pitching and the top offenses that are firing on all cylinders right now. I unfortunately will not be in chat as I’m taking my shark-loving nephew to see “The Meg”, but I’ll check in on twitter @jac3600. Good luck!
Aaron Nola, PHI ($10,500)
Trevor Bauer is the top play, but Nola isn’t far behind and he’s more than close enough in projection for me to pay the $1500 discount. Nola is getting a park upgrade going to San Diego, and the Padres rank 28th in wRC+ against RHP with the third highest K rate. Nola is a -200 road favorite with a 3.1 IRTA which is the slate low, and he has a 24.8% K rate to go along with a 50% GB rate. I’m building around him in cash.
Other options – Trevor Bauer, Charlie Morton
Jack Flaherty, STL ($8000)
If you really want to stack offense, there are worse cash options than Flaherty, even though you’re losing some of the safety you get with the top guys. Flaherty takes on a Royals squad who now rank dead last in wRC+ against RHP, and carry an IRT of 3.8 runs (which would be lower if it wasn’t hot in KC and they didn’t have a DH). Flaherty has a 34.5% K rate against RHB and the Royals top bats are now all right-handed.
Other options – Tyler Skaggs, Walker Buehler, Julio Teheran, Wade Miley, William Cuevas
TOP PLAY AND TOP VALUE
Mitch Moreland, BOS ($3300)
There are no 1B studs worth paying up for, and Moreland remains perpetually underpriced for someone hitting third for an offense with an IRT of 5.8 runs (second highest on the slate). The Red Sox offense rank first in both wRC+ and ISO, and Moreland has a .235 ISO against RHP over the last three years.
Other options – Freddie Freeman, Carlos Santana, Ian Desmond, Yonder Alonso, Jose Martinez, Yuli Gurriel, Chris Davis
Catcher values – Yadier Molina, JT Realmuto, Buster Posey, Evan Gattis
Brian Dozier, LAD ($4000)
Dozier has been smashing lately with a .335 ISO and 39% HHR over his last ten games, and now gets to face a lefty is Coors Field. He’s been leading off for the Dodgers the last few times against lefties, and carries a .388 wOBA against them over the last three seasons. Kyle Freeland has pitched well for the Rox this year, but he doesn’t strike out enough batter, and the Dodgers have a slate-high IRT of 5.9 runs. Dozier is my favorite overall hitter this evening.
Other options – Ozzie Albies, Travis Shaw
Jonathan Villar, BAL ($2700)
If you pay up for Bauer, you can’t afford players like Dozier and you need value plays like Villar. He’s leading off in the first game today so we may not see him tonight, but he leads off and has an immense amount of speed upside. Baltimore scored ten runs yesterday and have an IRT of 4.7 runs this evening.
Other options – D.J. LeMahieu, Marwin Gonzalez, Jason Kipnis
Jose Ramirez, CLE ($5000)
I’m intrigued by Justin Turner and Alex Bregman at cheaper prices, but it’s Ramirez against Shields, man. Shields has allowed 1.95 HR/9 to LHB the last three seasons and Ramirez has a .410 wOBA and .253 ISO against RHP over the last two seasons. His price pretty much keeps him GPP-play only, but he’s arguably the best play on the slate.
Other options – Justin Turner, Nolan Arenado, Alex Bregman
Manny Machado, LAD ($4700)
Machado is actually better against same-handed pitchers for his career but there’s nothing wrong with a .373 wOBA and .219 ISO against LHP, and Machado should hit second for the Dodgers who are the most attractive offense on the slate. He still offers a tiny bit of speed upside as well, but it’s tough to fit all these high-priced bats into cash unless you’re dipping all the way down to Flaherty or someone in that range.
Other options – Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Xander Bogaerts, Chris Taylor, Carlos Correa
Marcus Semien, OAK ($3000)
Semien is in one of the worse hitting environments, but he’s facing Tyler Skaggs who (while pitching well) has still allowed a 33% HHR to RHB over the past two seasons. Semien generally leads off against lefties and has a .204 ISO against them over the past seasons. The A’s only have an IRT of four runs, but they rank fourth in wRC+ against LHP.
Other options – Asdrubal Cabrera, Brandon Crawford, Amed Rosario
Mookie Betts/JD Martinez/Andrew Benintendi, BOS ($5300/$5200/$4300)
The Red Sox are going bonkers right now, and tonight they’re facing Yefry Ramirez who has a pitching slash of 5.66/5.19/5.12 and has allowed 1.54 HR/9 while walking almost five batters per nine. Boston’s fearsome offense gets another cake matchup against the Orioles bullpen afterwards, and one of these guys in cash is a smart move. Benintendi looks like the savviest play at a steep discount, and Ramirez has allowed a .369 wOBA to LHB this year.
Other options – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, Cody Bellinger, Matt Kemp, Rhys Hoskins, Christian Yelich, Michael Brantley, Ronald Acuna
Justin Upton/Shohei Ohtani, LAA ($3300/$3100)
Like Oakland (their opponent), the Angels only have an IRT of four runs, but the wind is blowing straight out and Upton and Ohtani have both flashed immense power. Edwin Jackson has severely outpitched his peripherals (2.87 ERA, 4.45 xFIP) and ZiPS is calling for a 1.54 HR/9 for the rest of the season.
Other options – David Dahl, Gerardo Parra, Kike Hernandez, Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Kole Calhoun, Lorenzo Cain, Eric Thames, Andrew McCutchen, Odubel Herrera, Adam Duvall, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Derek Dietrich, Jackie Bradley