DK just bubbled out for me yesterday (who knew Edwin Jackson still had something left in the tank?), but FD was another decisive win which brings the streak up to four on that site. We’ll look to keep it going today with a 10-game main slate, and there are some fun early ones if you can’t wait till the night. Make sure to join us in chat, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.
Patrick Corbin, WAS ($9800)
The Mets stunned the baseball world yet again last night with a four-run ninth inning against Sean Doolittle, and they’ve now moved into one of the NL Wild Card Spots. That said, I still really like the matchup for Corbin tonight, and it helps that he’s coming in at a discount as well. The Mets do rank seventh in wOBA against LHP, but they also have a 23.5% K rate against them and two of their key hitters (Conforto and McNeil) are on the wrong side of the platoon split. Corbin has a 3.84 SIERA, 28.3% K rate, and 13.6% swinging strike rate, and he has seven quality starts over his last ten appearances.
Other options – Charlie Morton, Noah Syndergaard, Sonny Gray
Kenta Maeda, LAD ($6700)
If you don’t want to mess with the WAS/NYM game or pay all the way up for Charlie Morton in cash, there is an avenue to go cheap and load up on offense, and it’s Maeda. The Diamondbacks are a weird matchup since they have the seventh lowest K rate against RHP but also rank 19th in wRC+ against them, and they’ll be getting a park downgrade going to Los Angeles. Maeda’s issue is not talent, but length, as he has not achieved a quality start since July 6. Ultimately, I’m willing to adopt that risk unless we hear something different about his innings, as Maeda has a 14.2% swinging strike rate and has been great at allowing soft contact (29% HHR allowed on the year).
Other options – Chris Paddack, Aaron Sanchez, Tanner Roark, Joe Musgrove, Adrian Houser
TOP PLAY AND TOP VALUE
Matt Olson, OAK ($3400)
I love Olson today, and I can’t see fading him at this price tag. He is one of the game’s true power hitters with a career .251 ISO, and the matchup with Reynaldo Lopez is a good one. While Lopez has recently started missing more bats, he also still has a 4.93 SIERA and is WAY too reliant on flyball outs (34.2% GB rate). The A’s have an IRT of 5.5 runs and are getting a meaningful park upgrade in Chicago. Load up on Olson in all formats.
Other options – Pete Alonso, Anthony Rizzo, Paul Goldschmidt, Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Santana, CJ Cron, Marwin Gonzalez, Eric Thames, Jesus Aguilar
Catcher values – Yasmani Grandal, Robinson Chirinos, Jason Castro, Chance Sisco
Jose Altuve, HOU ($4400)
The Astros somewhat disappointed yesterday with only three runs, but do not let that deter you from them at all tonight. With other top offenses like Boston and the Yankees playing early today, Houston is ruling the slate with an IRT of 6.8 runs, and they’ll get nine innings of upside against the Baltimore pitching staff. Aaron Brooks has a 4.85 SIERA and only a 17.6% K rate, and Houston has the lowest K rate in the league against RHP. After Brooks is out, they get to take aim at the bottom-ranked bullpen.
Other options – Ketel Marte, Keston Huira, Max Muncy
Luis Arraez, MIN ($2500)
This is a tough sell, as Arraez is cold lately (7.5% HHR last 15), but with Nelson Cruz on the IL all the Twins have gotten a lineup boost so we could see Arraez batting fifth or sixth. The Twins still rank fourth in wOBA and first in ISO against RHP and have an IRT of 5.4 runs today, and Adam Plutko has a 5.28 SIERA with only a 14% K rate and 30.9% GB rate. The strength of the CLE bullpen keeps the upside down a bit, but this is a great spot for all Twins hitters and Arraez is a solid cheap part of that.
Other options – Rougned Odor, Kolten Wong, Michael Brosseau, Jurickson Profar
Alex Bregman, HOU ($4000)
I’d love to get both Bregman and Altuve into cash, but if you can’t, the $400 discount for Breg (plus the fact that Arraez) is a viable value makes the 3B the higher priority. He’s hot with a 30.3% HHR over his last 15, and Bregman is a terrific reverse split hitter with a .377 wOBA and .246 ISO against RHP since last year. He’s worth at least $500 more today, so take this gift FD is offering you.
Other options – Manny Machado, Mike Moustakas, Kris Bryant, Matt Chapman, Miguel Sano, Jose Ramirez
Matt Carpenter, STL ($3100)
Another reason for prioritizing Bregman in cash is the high opportunity cost at 3B (just look at that list above), but Carpenter rings as a pretty nice GPP value. The production really hasn’t come back yet since he’s returned from the IL, but Carpenter has a .357 wOBA and .233 ISO against RHP since last year and Joe Musgrove has allowed 1.45 HR/9 and a 42.1% HHR to LHB in that span. The Pirates bullpen is trash outside of their closer, too.
Other options – Matt Duffy, Renato Nunez, Todd Frazier
Fernando Tatis Jr, SD ($4500)
I give myself a solid pat on the back for picking Tatis over Carlos Correa yesterday, and I’m going to do it again even though Correa is the more logical choice at $600 less and facing the Orioles. Tatis is absolutely unstoppable right now with a .349 BA, six homers, 12 RBI, and two steals over his last 15 games while posting a 43.5% HHR in that span as well. San Diego is always one of the worst park environments to target hitters in, but the Padres still have an IRT of five runs against Chi Chi Gonzalez who has a 5.95 ERA and 5.95 SIERA, along with a 14.3% K rate against a 13.2% BB rate. Whew.
Other options – Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez, Trea Turner, Jorge Polanco
Corey Seager, LAD ($3000)
Part of the reason a cheaper pitcher like Maeda looks more enticing in cash is the fact that you seem to be forced into paying up at both 3B and SS given the complete lack of values against a slew of elite guys. Corey Seager has a L/L matchup but Alex Young has pitched WAY over his head so far (2.60 ERA, 4.61 SIERA) and Seager has been hitting the ball hard lately (33.3% HHR last 15). This is strictly a GPP play, but a fun one that should come with low ownership, even in Dodgers stacks.
Other options – Jonathan Villar, Paul DeJong, Elvis Andrus, Tim Anderson
THE ASTROS OUTFIELD (Springer $4500/Alvarez $4300/Brantley $4200)
Pick your poison here. All three of these guys have a recent 15-day HHR over 35%, and all three have an ISO over .200 against RHP this season. I would make an effort to roster at least one of these guys in cash alongside Bregman and/or Altuve to have multiple Astros. Everything is set up for them to smash tonight. At this moment I’d rank the three in the order I have above, but I think getting the exposure is more important in cash than picking the actual player.
Other options – Christian Yelich, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Cody Bellinger, Tommy Pham, Shin Soo Choo, Juan Soto, AJ Pollock
Khris Davis, OAK ($2800)
Davis’ power drought has to be concerning, as he only has one homer since July 1. That said, it’s more than baked into his price tag, and you’re getting one of the game’s best power bats at a huge discount. He is hitting the ball well lately with a 31.8% HHR the last 15 games, and he’s moved up from sixth to fifth in the order. Reynaldo Lopez is prone to blowups at any time, and Davis has a .348 wOBA and .268 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. He’s a terrific cheap option which helps you get in some of the big bats we want, and he can actually match their upside as well.
Other options – Yasiel Puig, Franmil Reyes, Trent Grisham, Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain, Hunter Renfroe, Wil Myers, Manuel Margot, Avisail Garcia, Nick Castellanos, Eloy Jimenez, Josh Reddick. Aristedes AquinoFantasy Baseball