Well, the Astros, Nationals, Red Sox, and Diamondbacks combined for 65 runs yesterday, so I guess it’s safe to say summer is officially here for baseball. That’s going to suit us well today, as there are no elite starting pitchers to force our hand (I think they all pitched yesterday). Today I’ll be looking to build some gaudy offenses in both cash and GPP, and I’ll be in chat helping our subs hopefully do the same! Follow me on twitter @jac3600.
Dallas Keuchel, HOU ($9600)
If you still want to spend based on Vegas, Keuchel is cash viable, but I’d really rather take the risk down a bit lower. He’s a massive -325 favorite (highest by far) with a 3 IRTA, and the White Sox have the third lowest wOBA in the league against LHP. Keuchel is able to pitch deep into games which really helps the QS probability even if he lacks in K upside (which he somewhat makes up for with a 54.5% GB rate).
Other options – Rick Porcello
Nathan Eovaldi, TB ($6800)
Eovaldi gives me carte blanche for the hitters I want, and I think that’s the route I’m going to take in cash. His bugaboo is still power (1.96 HR/9 allowed this year), but he’s been pitching really well lately and his 3.92 ERA is backed by a 3.60 xFIP. He also has a very usable 22% K rate and is getting a league shift in his favor where he doesn’t have the face the DH. The Mets have the second lowest IRT on the slate at 3.4 runs, and Eovaldi has gone six innings in four straight.
Other options – Jon Lester, Shane Bieber, Sean Newcomb, Jake Odorizzi, Domingo German
Freddie Freeman, ATL ($4200)
Freeman’s hard hit rate is down lately, but it’s resulted in a price drop which is actually making him a good value. Junior Guerra has had a good year with a 2.87 ERA and 24% K rate, but his xFIP is 4.23 and the walk rate is just a smidge too high at 3.49 BB/9. Freeman has a .406 wOBA and .264 ISO against RHP over the last three years.
Other options – Edwin Encarnacion, Anthony Rizzo, Matt Olson, Justin Smoak
Mitch Moreland, BOS ($3200)
Moreland is a great way to get access to the Red Sox offense which leads the way with an IRT of 5.6. They are taking on Jake Junis who has allowed a 41% hard hit rate and 2.12 HR/9, and the Red Sox offense is firing on all cylinders right now. They’ve scored 25 runs in the first two games against Royals pitching, and the high 80s temps makes it very likely it could happen again. Moreland has a .232 ISO against RHP over the last three years.
Other options – Logan Morrison, Joe Mauer, Justin Bour, Josh Bell, Chris Davis
Catcher values – Willson Contreras, Russell Martin, Austin Romine, Victor Martinez
Jose Altuve, HOU ($4700)
Altuve is fully priced for someone who has a 12% hard hit rate the last 15 games, but he’s still viable in all formats. The Astros are right behind Boston in IRT (5.5) and Altuve has still been on base 11 times in his last four games with five runs scored despite the low hard contact. The Astros are for sure facing the worst pitcher on the slate in Lucas Giolito who has a pitching slash of 6.93/6.38/6.42 and has walked more batters than he’s struck out. He could be in for a world of hurt in Houston.
Other options – Ozzie Albies, Brian Dozier
Rougned Odor, TEX ($3000)
2B is a bit thin on this 11-game slate, but Odor’s power keeps him in play as long as he continues to hit fifth. Michael Fulmer is a decent pitcher, but a career 7.03 K/9 always leaves you prone to blowups, and Odor has a career .211 ISO against RHP. He’s cheap enough to be considered in all formats.
Other options – Jonathan Villar, Brock Holt, Whit Merrifield
Jose Ramirez, CLE ($5000)
Ramirez is a much better hitter from the left side, so he loses a touch of upside today against Brett Anderson. However, Anderson is expected to be on a pitch count and the A’s bullpen ranks 25th in xFIP, so there’s a chance for some sneaky fireworks here. Ramirez already has an incredible 42 combined homers and steals, and has officially joined the upper echelon of hitters in this game.
Other options – Alex Bregman, Eugenio Suarez, Anthony Rendon, Miguel Andujar
Eduardo Escobar, MIN ($3100)
Escobar has a 10% hard hit rate L15, which may be a driving point behind his price dropping. However, the Twins are a really sneaky team to target as they come in with an IRT of 5.1, and Escobar is in the midst of a breakout year with a .248 ISO. Alex Cobb has been a prime attack point this year with a 6.23/5.00/4.62 pitching slash and 1.55 HR/9 allowed. Escobar is a value play that makes sense, giving you money to spend up in the outfield (more on that later).
Other options – Jeimer Candelario, Yangervis Solarte, Rafael Devers, Tim Beckham
Trea Turner, WAS ($4300)
Turner is back in the leadoff spot for good, and he has a 30% hard hit rate over his last ten days. Throw in the blazing speed component and the fact that the Nationals are killing the ball right now, and you have a great play in all formats. Washington has an IRT of 5.2 runs, and Trevor Richards has struggled with a 5.46 ERA at the major league level so far.
Other options – Francisco Lindor, Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts
Elvis Andrus, TEX ($3300)
Shortstop is pretty thin today, so I’d make a top guy one of your big cash spends. If you absolutely can’t, Andrus is a good power/speed combo player who will hit second on the road which could give him five PAs. Michael Fulmer is not a great matchup, but the Detroit bullpen behind him ranks 26th in xFIP and 28th in ISO allowed
Other options – Tim Anderson, Jorge Polanco, Marwin Gonzalez
Giancarlo Stanton, NYY ($4600)
The outfield is brimming with top plays today. I usually will like to reserve my cheap spots out there due to the flexibility of the position, but today looks different. You’re going to want two top guys out here if you decide to go cheap at SP, and Stanton is the cream of the crop. The Yankees have an IRT of 5.2 runs against Toronto, and they’re facing a lefty who pitches to contact. We all know the “Stanton-versus-lefties” thing, but I’ll remind you that he’s got a .428 wOBA and .346 ISO against them for his CAREER. He’s my top overall hitter, and I’m locking him into cash.
Other options – Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, George Springer, Eddie Rosario, Kyle Schwarber, Shin Soo Choo
Mike Mahtook, DET ($2300)
This guy has been in my lineups so much this past week, but I don’t mind running him out there one more time as long as he continues to lead off. I like attacking Austin Bibens-Dirkx in DFS with his inability to miss bats, and Detroit has an IRT of 4.7 runs (good for their offense lacking in superstars). Mahtook is better against lefties, but he’s still got a 27% hard hit rate over the last 15 games.
Other options – Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo, Ryan Braun, Josh Reddick, Kyle Tucker, Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones, Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, Austin Meadows, Corey Dickerson, Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, Dustin Fowler, Kevin Kiermaier