It’s the last day before the All-Star Break, so let’s go out with a bang before we get a little breather until next Friday. There are 11 games on each site to tangle with on the main slate, and an interesting mix of pitching and offense. There are honestly several ways you can go at SP, so lineups will ultimately tell the tale. Stay in tune with us at FTA, as the projections and chat were fire last night. Follow me on twitter @jac3600 as well!
Aaron Nola, PHI ($9700)
After a very questionable start to the year, the Nola that was a top three finisher in the Cy Young race last year is back. His xFIP is down to 3.82 and he’s posted a 32.7% K rate over his last three starts. The Mets aren’t the best matchup for strikeouts against righties, but they’ve fallen to 17th in wOBA against them and Nola gets a park upgrade in NY. If you choose to spend into the top tier, he seems like the best per-dollar option.
Other options – Trevor Bauer, Patrick Corbin, Charlie Morton
James Paxton, NYY ($8700)
Paxton has been a tad iffy in the run prevention department lately (4.21 SIERA), but he continues to miss bats at an elite level (27.6% K rate). He’s getting a major park upgrade going to Tampa, and the Rays have the fourth highest K rate against LHP (25.8%). He’s too cheap to not be right at the top of your list for cash games, but remember the all-important win is not a guarantee as he faces a tough opposing pitcher in Charlie Morton. Paxton will get you ace-like K rates and help you fit in the chalky Red Sox bats.
Other options – Kyle Hendricks, David Price, Zack Wheeler, Dallas Keuchel, Trent Thornton
Anthony Rizzo, CHC ($4300)
I second-guessed myself a lot for playing Cubs against Lucas Giolito yesterday, and it turned out I was actually right. Today there is no question they’re in an elite spot against Ivan Nova, and they’re getting a park shift AND adding the DH. Nova has been horrid against lefties, allowing a .209 ISO since 2017 while only striking out 12.2% of them. Even with Red Sox hitters profiling even better, I have a hard time not calling Rizzo a lock with his .381 wOBA and .247 ISO against RHP since last year.
Other options – Freddie Freeman, Carlos Santana, Michael Chavis, Willson Contreras
Matt Adams, WAS ($3000)
Washington once again comes in as one of the better offenses to target with an IRT of 5.7, and Adams has entrenched himself into the five-hole which is really helping his DFS upside. He’s been hitting the ball beautifully of late with a 38.1% HHR last 15, and he has a .265 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. Jake Junis is a serviceable pitcher, but really struggles with hard contact allowed (42.3% this year) and has a 4.69 SIERA.
Other options – Trey Mancini, Joey Votto, Justin Smoak, Rowdy Tellez, Justin Bour
Catcher values – Yasmani Grandal, Robinson Chirinos, Danny Jansen, Christian Vazquez
Cavan Biggio, TOR ($3800)
Jose Altuve is once again dirt cheap on DK and a lock over there, but Biggio is actually the favored option on FD today. EVERYONE will be on Boston as the top offense (rightfully so), but Toronto (believe it or not) is tied with them for the highest IRT on the slate at 6.3 runs. This is due to the fact that they’re facing Gabriel Ynoa who has allowed 2.13 HR/9 this year while striking out under 15% of batters and posting a 6.07 FIP. He’s backed by the worst bullpen in the majors, and Biggio has posted a very nice .193 ISO against RHP since his callup.
Other options – Jose Altuve
Eduardo Nunez, BOS ($2100)
We’ll get into Boston more later in this article, but if Nunez is in the lineup he’s one of the better punts on the slate as he’ll give you basically free access to the top expected offense on the slate. If you pay up for pitching, he’d be a lock, and he’d really help fit in some top bats even if you spend down in the Paxton area.
Other options – Eric Sogard, Jason Kipnis, Luis Arraez, Brian Dozier
Kris Bryant, CHC ($4200)
It’s not just the lefties that you can use against Nova, as he’s only struck out 17% of RHB for his career as well. Bryant has ten hits over his last five games with almost a 50% HHR in that span, and he’s posted a .374 wOBA and .241 ISO against same-handed pitching since the beginning of last season. He’s worthy of his price tag in all formats, but Rizzo is the Cub to target if you get only one.
Other options – Anthony Rendon, Rafael Devers, Miguel Sano, Jose Ramirez, Mike Moustakas
Vladimir Guerrero Jr, TOR ($3200)
Vlad left yesterday’s game with a stomach bug, so you’ll have to check on his status today. If he’s in, he looks to be the cash lock at the position at his price tag. Vlad hasn’t taken the league by storm as we all thought he would (.165 ISO), but he still profiles to be a superstar, and he gets nine innings of upside against the second worst starter on the slate and the worst bullpen in baseball.
Other options – Josh Donaldson, Eugenio Suarez, Marwin Gonzalez
Xander Bogaerts, BOS ($4200)
There are five shortstops above 4k today on FD, and honestly they’re all so close to each other that you could pick any one of them in cash, creating massive opportunity cost at the position today. I have to pick one, so I’ll call Bogaerts the best right now. He has a .372 wOBA and .197 ISO since last year, and Gregory Soto has been an absolute disaster in the majors, posting an 8.06 ERA, 6.30 FIP, and a 14.7% K rate. Bogaerts also has the highest HHR in the last 15 games of the five top shortstops, with a 35.9% mark.
Other options – Francisco Lindor, Trea Turner, Alex Bregman, Javier Baez (again, literally all of them are cash viable)
Jonathan Villar, BAL ($3600)
The fact that this is a low-priced as I’m willing to go for a value play says all we need to know about the position today. Baltimore quietly has an IRT of 4.9 runs, and Villar has been mashing the ball lately with a 38.7% HHR over his last 15 games. Trent Thornton is one of the better GPP value pitchers today, but he’s still allowed almost 1.7 HR/9 this season and young pitchers often struggle with the running game (17 SBs already for Villar). He’ll be forgotten on this slate, making him an elite GPP option.
Other options – Freddy Galvis, Kevin Newman, Leury Garcia
Mookie Betts/JD Martinez, BOS ($4200/$4000)
You must get one of these guys in, whatever else you do (both would be wonderful, but that’s a lot tougher). Betts has fully woken up after a slow start, posting a 42% HHR over his last 15 games and back to back three-hit games. Gregory Soto will be completely overmatched by this Boston lineup today, and he’s backed by a Detroit bullpen that ranks 28th in SIERA. If you need the extra $200, JD is fine with a 35% HHR last 15 and a .410 wOBA and .300 ISO against LHP since last year.
Other options – Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, George Springer, Christian Yelich, Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler, Ronald Acuna, Bryce Harper, Joey Gallo, Shin Soo Choo, Kyle Schwarber
Randal Grichuk, TOR ($3200)
Grichuk is yet another way to get cheap-ish access to the Blue Jays lineup that looks like an amazing cheap stack today. I’ve spoken at length about the mess that is the Baltimore pitching staff today, and Grichuk has been the best reverse-split hitter on the Jays. Since the beginning of last season, he’s posted a .258 ISO against same-handed pitching.
Other options – Andrew Benintendi, Justin Upton, Kole Calhoun, Jarrett Parker, Adam Eaton, Teoscar Hernandez, Yasiel Puig, Jesse Winker, Jake Bauers, Dwight SmithFantasy Baseball