FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 7/5/19


I hope everyone had a fun, safe, and firework-filled 4th of July yesterday (and maybe won a little extra DFS cash). Tonight we turn our attention to a full Friday slate, and the FTA crew will be working hard for you in chat tonight as well as updating our A.C.E. projection model. If you’re not on the @FanTeamAdvice train, join us today! You can also follow me for info @jac3600.

STARTING PITCHER

TOP PLAY

Jacob deGrom, NYM ($10,700)

There are a slew of good pitchers at the top end, but deGrom seems to have the best context of matchup, price, and context. He’ll be pitching at home where he’s been sensational for his entire career, and taking on a Phillies squad that ranks in the bottom ten in ISO, HHR, and LD rate against RHP. Vegas is also a fan, as deGrom is a -180 favorite with a 3.6 IRTA (tied for lowest on the slate with Kershaw).

Other options – Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke

VALUE PLAY

Julio Teheran, ATL ($7500)

There’s a bit too much opportunity cost at SP to safely roster Teheran in cash, but he’s by far my favorite GPP play with the enviable matchup against the Marlins who are last in both wOBA and wRC+ against RHP. The Marlins’ active lineup is significant because it’s rare they call roll out any threatening lefties which makes Teheran a lot better (he’s allowed a .320 wOBA to LHB since the beginning of last year as opposed to a .204 mark to RHB). Roster him in GPPs for the upside.

Other options – Masahiro Tanaka, Drew Pomeranz, Austin Voth, Martin Perez, Aaron Sanchez

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

TOP PLAY

Freddie Freeman, ATL ($4400)

Freeman is priced out a bit for cash since we’re pursuing high-end starting pitching, but that won’t stop me from rostering a whole lot of him in GPPs. Freeman has a .399 wOBA and .263 ISO against RHP, and the temps will be near 90 in Atlanta tonight. Jordan Yamamoto was allowing a ton of hard contact in the minors which indicates regression at the MLB level.

Other options – Josh Bell, Pete Alonso, Gary Sanchez, Matt Olson, Michael Chavis

VALUE PLAY

CJ Cron, MIN ($3200)

Cron is priced too cheaply on FD. The Twins rank first in the majors in both wOBA and ISO against RHP, and they’re facing Adrian Sampson who is an extreme reverse-split pitcher. Since 2017, Sampson has allowed a .416 wOBA and .250 to RHB, and Cron has a .234 ISO against RHP in that span. He should hit fourth or fifth, and fits the cash game build perfectly.

Other options – Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Adams, Mark Canha, Rowdy Tellez

Catcher values – Yasmani Grandal, Christian Vasquez, Wilson Ramos

SECOND BASE

TOP PLAY

Cavan Biggio, TOR ($3700)

I admit, I did not expect to even consider Biggio at this price, but he really is the top option at the position and is worthy of his price tag. Dylan Bundy has a high K rate against RHB, but he’s been absolutely useless against lefties and has the highest HR/FB rate in the majors since 2017. Biggio has a 26.5% HHR since being called up and has added a new dimension to the Blue Jays stack (along with Vlad). Toronto has a solid IRT of 5.6 runs, and they’ll have nine innings of upside against the BAL bullpen who ranks last in SIERA.

Other options – Jose Altuve, Ketel Marte

VALUE PLAY

Eduardo Nunez, BOS ($2200)

Nunez shouldn’t bat any higher than seventh, but on this slate that’s just fine. The Red Sox are the class offense tonight with an IRT of 6.6 runs against Gregory Soto and the Detroit bullpen who ranks 29th in SIERA. Soto has a 6.54 FIP and a horrendous 2.9% K-BB rate, and Nunez gets you Red Sox exposure at near minimum price.

Other options – Eric Sogard, Keston Huira, Brian Dozier, Jonathan Schoop

THIRD BASE

TOP PLAY

Matt Chapman, OAK ($3800)

Despite being in Seattle which is a pitchers’ park, Chapman rates as a solid play in all formats tonight. He has been absolutely killing the ball lately with a 43.2% HHR over his last 15 days, and Yusei Kikuchi has really struggled with the long ball (1.77 HR/9 allowed) while posting a 5.42 FIP. The A’s have a healthy IRT of 5.4 runs tonight.

Other options – Anthony Rendon, Rafael Devers, Miguel Sano, Mike Moustakas

VALUE PLAY

Josh Donaldson, ATL ($3100)

It was close between Donaldson and Vlad Guerrero here, but Dylan Bundy’s K rate against RHB pushes me ever so slightly in the direction of Donaldson (plus he’s $100 cheaper). Donaldson started the year off slow but he’s actually been REALLY good this year, posting a 29.5% HHR and .236 ISO against RHP on the year. Against a suspect pitcher in hot weather, Donaldson seems like a solid cash value tonight.

Other options – Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Justin Turner, Marwin Gonzalez

SHORTSTOP

TOP PLAY

Xander Bogaerts, BOS ($4200)

Trea Turner is awfully enticing at $200 less, but Bogaerts is the class of the position for a Red Sox offense that seems to be an outlier group for cash. Bogaerts has been hitting third for Boston which does wonders for his projections, and he has a .197 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year. He also has been locked in lately with a 36.5% HHR the last 15 days. The only issue is this – if you can only afford one big bat with the expensive starting pitching, my first priority is with one of the big Red Sox outfielders.

Other options – Trea Turner, Alex Bregman, Jorge Polanco

VALUE PLAY

Marcus Semien, OAK ($3400)

I talked several of our subs off of Semien yesterday in favor of Didi Gregorius, figuring the matchup against Jose Berrios was not favorable enough. Semien responded with two homers and five RBIs, and I don’t play on missing on him this time around. Semien should lead off for an A’s squad that is set up to succeed against Yusei Kikuchi, and Semien has a .191 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year.

Other options – Jonathan Villar, Paul DeJong, Yairo Munoz, Chris Taylor

OUTFIELD

TOP PLAY

Mookie Betts/JD Martinez, BOS ($4300/$4400)

You’re going to have to squeeze one of these guys into cash tonight, as they’re the top two hitters on the top offense of the slate. Both have been killing the ball over the last 15 games (Betts 36.4% HHR, JD 35.1% HHR) and have elite numbers in the platoon split. Since the beginning of last year, Betts has a .397 wOBA and .262 ISO against lefties, while JD Martinez has posted a .410 wOBA and .300 ISO. If choosing one I prefer Betts since he adds the speed component as well, but you can’t go wrong with either.

Other options – Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler, Ronald Acuna, Juan Soto, Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, George Springer, Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, Lourdes Gurriel, Andrew Benintendi

VALUE PLAY

Khris Davis, OAK ($3300)

Davis stands out as a building block on both sites (moreso on DK where he’s $3800 which is ridiculous). Davis has struggled a bit with injuries this season, but there’s no reason he should be as cheap as he is. Khris has the most homers in the league over the past three years and has crushed lefties especially, with a .274 ISO against them since the beginning of last year. Make sure he’s in your lineups tonight.

Other options – Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, David Peralta, Jarrod Dyson, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez, Nick Castellanos, Jorge Soler, Adam Eaton, Dwight Smith, Delino DeShields

Fantasy Baseball