It’s the trade deadline edition of this article, and we could see some big pieces moving as the day goes on (how about that Bauer/Puig saga last night!). We’re loading up the early slate right now, and we’ll be back in full force in FTA chat for the 8-gamer tonight. Keep on the look out for moves, and the fallout associated with them, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.
Jacob deGrom, NYM ($12,000)
With the offense lately, it’s been in vogue to fade top starters, but we don’t have Coors, Yankee Stadium, or any other big times IRTs on this slate which means pitching can be more of a focus for us. I wonder if the masses will flock to Jose Berrios in Miami at $1600 less, but I’m going to make every effort to lock in deGrom. The White Sox have scored the fewest runs in the league since the ASB with the highest K rate, and their 26.2% K rate against RHP is the second highest in the league. DeGrom is absolutely elite with a 31.2% K rate and 15.2% swinging strike rate. Berrios is good and has the best context, but his skillset pales in comparison with deGrom’s.
Other options – Jose Berrios, Mike Minor
Jose Berrios, MIN ($10,400)
As I said, our focus is starting pitching tonight, so I apologize for not having a “cheap” value here. If you NEED the $1600 for more offense, Berrios is viable, but just know you’re sacrificing skillset for matchup which sometimes adds risk. Miami ranks 29th in both wOBA and wRC+ against RHP with the fifth highest K rate against them, and Berrios is simply a good pitcher. The problem is he’s still expensive, and you’re only getting a 21.3% K rate as opposed to deGrom’s who blows him away. Berrios’ IRTA does match deGrom’s, though, at 3.4.
Other options – Mike Minor, Lucas Giolito, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Lyles
Danny Santana, TEX ($3600)
What an odd pick, but there we are. Santana has been hitting in the top two for the Rangers, and their IRT is second on the slate at 5.7 runs. It’s super hot in Texas and Santana is running a a heater right now with 11 hits and three homers over his last five games with a 40% HHR in that span. Wade LeBlanc has a 4.69 SIERA, a 17% K rate, and is getting almost as bad a park downgrade as a pitcher can.
Other options – Rhys Hoskins, Anthony Rizzo, Pete Alonso
Ji-Man Choi, TB ($2600)
As long as Choi continues to lead off for the Rays, you can’t fade him at this unmoving price tag. Choi has a 30% HHR over his last 15 games along with a .200 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year, and Rick Porcello has been godawful this season with a 5.02 SIERA (bottom ten of all qualified pitchers) and only a 7.6% swinging strike rate.
Other options – Matt Olson, Brandon Belt, Nate Lowe, Logan Forsythe
Catcher values – JT Realmuto, Yasmani Grandal, Buster Posey, Wilson Ramos
TOP PLAY AND TOP VALUE
Rougned Odor, TEX ($2900)
Don’t fade Odor tonight unless the Rangers stupidly drop him to seventh or eighth in the order. He’s been smashing the ball lately, with a 39.5% HHR and .303 ISO in his last 15 games. The L/L matchup shouldn’t scare you either, as Wade LeBlanc has allowed 1.51 HR/9 to LHB over the past three years, and the Mariners bullpen is plummeting in SIERA.
Other options – Jose Altuve, Michael Chavis, Robinson Cano, Joey Wendle
Alex Bregman, HOU ($3800)
Bregman is simply too cheap on FD for being one of the best overall hitters in baseball. Zack Plesac’s 3.10 ERA is all smoke and mirrors, as he’s walked over 9% of batters and has posted a 5.21 SIERA. The Astros rank fifth in wOBA against RHP and have the lowest K rate against them, so this is a prime regression spot for Plesac. Bregman has a .377 wOBA and .246 ISO against RHP since last year.
Other options – Rafael Devers, Kris Bryant, Jose Ramirez
Pablo Sandoval, SF ($2700)
It was a tough choice between Sandoval and Asdrubal Cabrera at the same price here, but I’ll side with the higher expected batting order spot. The Panda quietly has a .245 ISO this season against RHP and Vince Velasquez has always struggled against them, with 1.49 HR/9 allowed over the last three seasons. As long as he hits third or fourth, he’s a very viable punt-ish play.
Other options – Asdrubal Cabrera, Matt Chapman, Matt Duffy
Xander Bogaerts, BOS ($4200)
It’s going to be difficult to get up to the Red Sox bats if your focus is one deGrom (or even on Berrios), but we can’t ignore them. They have a slate high IRT of 5.9 runs and have the second highest team HHR over the last ten games. Bogaerts is having an MVP caliber year with a .387 wOBA and .270 ISO against LHP, and Ryan Yarbrough is expected to be Tampa’s long man today.
Other options – Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien, Jorge Polanco
Elvis Andrus, TEX ($3000)
Andrus seems to be a must on this slate, even with a cold bat (10% HHR last 15). He’ll get a premier lineup spot (third) for the Rangers who seems to be offering the most value of any team on the slate right now, and he’s a five-tool caliber bat that comes in with nice speed upside. Take the value here, and find a Red Sox bat in the OF if you need it.
Other options – Jean Segura, Willy Adames, Brandon Crawford
JD Martinez, BOS ($4100)
If you like Betts better you get no argument from me, but Martinez is $200 cheaper and has an incredible 50% HHR over his last 15 (Betts has a 31.3% mark in that span). Since last year, JD has a .401 wOBA and .286 ISO against LHP along with a ridiculous .47.8% HHR against them this year. If you can fit in even one Red Sox bat, this is the one I’d target.
Other options – Mookie Betts, Tommy Pham, Austin Meadows, Bryce Harper, George Springer, Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez, Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Hunter Pence
Shin Soo Choo, TEX ($3200)
As I’ve said, you shouldn’t be scared off my a L/L matchup against LeBlanc, especially with the weather being so hitter-friendly. Choo is too cheap for a guy leading off in an IRT of 5.7 runs, and he’s quietly posted a 40.6% HHR against same-handed pitching this year. There’s a chance he’ll sit, so keep an eye out.
Other options – Kyle Schwarber, Mallex Smith, Khris Davis, Jeff McNeil, JD Davis, Avisail Garcia, Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain, Delino DeShields, Alex DickersonFantasy Baseball