FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 7/30/19


DK was another solid win, but I cost myself everything on FD picking Hunter Dozier and Daniel Murphy over Rendon and Franmil Reyes. Tonight we have a full slate of 14 games, hot weather, and TONS of offense. Thankfully I already see cheap pitchers to use in cash, so that will be our main focus today. Make sure to join us in FTA chat, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.

STARTING PITCHER

TOP PLAY

Noah Syndergaard, NYM ($10,600)

I’m not paying up at SP in cash today, and this is a risky proposition anyway as there’s a very good chance Syndergaard is traded before he has to make this start (but you never know with the Mets). Thor is getting a park downgrade and will have to face a DH, but the White Sox have the highest K rate since the second half began and have the third highest against RHP. Syndergaard has a solid 12.5% swinging strike rate, and has really done a good job of limiting hard contact (29.1% HHR allowed). My prediction later though? This pick gets rendered obsolete.

Other options – Justin Verlander, Shane Bieber, Charlie Morton

VALUE PLAY

Jake Odorizzi, MIN ($7300)

There is actually more than one option tonight for a cheaper SP in cash, but Odorizzi strongly gets my vote and I’ll look to build around him. He gets the coveted matchup against Miami who rank 28th in wOBA and 29th in wRC+ against RHP with the fifth highest K rate. We’ve predictably seen Odorizzi’s regression lately thanks to his 4.42 SIERA and 44% HHR allowed, but his K/BB ratios are fine, AND he gets to pitch in Marlins Park with NL rules. He’s a -160 road favorite with a 3.6 IRTA. This just makes too much sense with all the offense tonight.

Other options – David Price, Griffin Canning, Yu Darvish, Tanner Roark, JA Happ, Chris Bassitt

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

TOP PLAY

Edwin Encarnacion, NYY ($4300)

The Yankees are at home facing Taylor Clarke, and right now they have the same IRT as the Rockies in Coors (6.8) and they’re much higher than the Dodgers (6.2). Clarke has been absolutely horrid this season with a 5.27 SIERA, 16.8% K rate, and 40.8% HHR allowed, and now he’ll be in Yankee Stadium with a DH added. Edwin has a 30.2% HHR over his last 15 games and has an elite .290 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last season. Whew.

Other options – Joc Pederson, Freddie Freeman, Pete Alonso, Daniel Murphy, Danny Santana, Daniel Vogelbach, Luke Voit

VALUE PLAY

Omar Narvaez, SEA ($2600)

If you want to go super cheap at the C/1B position, Narvaez looks like a winner. He’s cold lately (11.4% HHR last 15) but has a very underrated .193 ISO against RHP this year and he’ll be getting a major park upgrade going to Texas. In addition, his opponent is Ariel Jurado who has allowed a 44.6% HHR this season while posting a 4.93 SIERA, and the Texas bullpen ranks 27th in SIERA.

Other options – Tyler White, Joey Votto, Matt Adams, Brandon Belt

Catcher values – JT Realmuto, Will Smith, Buster Posey, Yasmani Grandal

SECOND BASE

TOP PLAY

Max Muncy, LAD ($4400)

I’m interested to see what lineup the Dodgers put out against Kyle Freeland tonight since their top hitters are almost all left-handed. That said, the lefties are still fine to use as Freeland has posted a 5.09 SIERA to all batters while allowing a .364 wOBA and 2.19 HR/9 to LHB this season. Muncy is much better against righties, but still holds a respectable .204 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year. I don’t think he’d be one of my big spends in cash, but the L/L matchup might keep his ownership down in GPPs.

Other options – Jose Altuve, Ketel Marte, Gleyber Torres

VALUE PLAY

Rougned Odor, TEX ($2900)

Well now, this could be a fun pick. If Odor is hitting sixth or seventh (as he has for most of the year), I still like him as a value. The Rangers have an IRT of 5.8 runs which on any other slate would be pushing for the top. It’s going to be over 100 degrees in Texas and Mike Leake’s contact ways (7.6% swinging strike rate) should spell trouble for him. Now here’s the kicker – Odor hit second in the Rangers’ last game, and if he’s there again he’s a 100% lock for me. He’s got a 35.3% HHR over the last 15 games, and has a .240 ISO against RHP since last year.

Other options – Ryan McMahon, Ozzie Albies, Scooter Gennett, Donovan Solano

THIRD BASE

TOP PLAY

Justin Turner, LAD ($4200)

As usual, 3B is loaded, and the choice between Turner and Nolan Arenado was very difficult. The Rockies’ IRT is higher, but Turner will hold the platoon edge against Kyle Freeland who has been awful to all handedness this season. Turner is also $100 cheaper than Arenado which helps, and he has a .398 wOBA and .254 ISO against LHP this season. He’s worth his price today.

Other options – Nolan Arenado, DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rendon, Josh Donaldson, Eugenio Suarez

VALUE PLAY

Pablo Sandoval/Zack Green, SF ($2600/$2100)

Whoever starts for the Giants at 3B tonight is a useful value, and they’re one of the sneakier stacks on the slate. They’re hitting the ball well lately, and are getting a big park upgrade going into Philadelphia where temps will push 90. Drew Smyly is making his Phillies debut tonight, and all he’s done this year is post a 7.38 FIP, walk 13% of batters faced, and allow 2.98 HR/9. The bullpen is below average as well.

Other options – Matt Chapman, David Fletcher, Kyle Seager, Asdrubal Cabrera

SHORTSTOP

TOP PLAY

Trevor Story, COL ($4000)

Story is the top Rockies bat tonight even though Dodgers’ pitcher Tony Gonsolin is a bit of an unknown at the MLB level. Bottom line, though, is that Coors is Coors. Story has a 38.5% HHR over his last 15 games and has a .348 wOBA and .250 ISO against RHP since last year. The Dodgers pen is strong, but Colorado put up nine runs on them yesterday and they are tied for the lead in IRT at 6.8 runs tonight.

Other options – Francisco Lindor, Trea Turner, Corey Seager

VALUE PLAY

Didi Gregorius, NYY ($3300)

Didi seems like a bit of a gift tonight. He pretty much bats fifth every game now with Gary Sanchez on the IL, and Taylor Clarke has allowed 2.27 HR/9 this season. In Yankee Stadium, that stat could prove to be UGLY. Didi has a 36.5% HHR over his last ten games and gets to take aim at the short RF porch. He’s a lock for me, even if you want Story too.

Other options – Jean Segura, JP Crawford, Elvis Andrus, Kevin Newman

OUTFIELD

TOP PLAY

Aaron Judge, NYY ($4200)

Everything sets up for Judge to have a huge game tonight. He’s the best reverse-split hitter on the Yankees with a .386 wOBA and .284 ISO against RHP since last year, and Taylor Clarke has actually been even worse against righties this year, allowing a .392 wOBA and 2.35 HR/9. It’s stiflingly hot in NY, and Judge also carries a 41.7% HHR over his last 15 games. He’s cheaper than Blackmon and Trout (the other two top OFs), making this an easy call for me in all formats.

Other options – Charlie Blackmon, Mike Trout, Cody Bellinger, Christian Yelich, AJ Pollokc, Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuna, Bryce Harper, Michael Conforto, Aaron Hicks, Nomar Mazara

VALUE PLAY

David Dahl, COL ($3500)

Dahl’s price is just stupid on FD, much like yesterday. If Blackmon sits again he should lead off, and even if Blackmon is back that puts Dahl in the third spot. Both are ideal for DFS, and he’ll have the platoon edge where he’s posted a .352 wOBA and .234 ISO since the beginning of last year. Dahl has really heated up as of late, and there’s just no way to fade him at this price tag (which should be at least 4k).

Other options – Shin Soo Choo, Jeff McNeil, Domingo Santana, Mallex Smith, Yasiel Puig, Jesse Winker, Josh VanMeter, Nick Senzel, Kyle Schwaber, Adam Eaton, Ian Desmond, Austin Riley, Yasmany Tomas

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