FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 7/28/19

Trevor Story launches a homerun at Coors Field for the Rockies

We’re three days from the trade deadline, so make sure you keep a close eye out for potential deals (including Robbie Ray who happens to be one of my favorite pitchers today). Last night was solid on FD as my Matz pick struck gold, so let’s see what we can come up with for this 10-game Sunday afternoon slate. Good luck, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.

STARTING PITCHER

TOP PLAY

Robbie Ray, ARI ($10,200)

There are a ton of good SPs going today, but none of them have all that enticing price tags. Ray seems to be the best combination of matchup, park environment, skillset, and price as he takes on a Marlins squad that ranks 29th in wOBA and 28th in wRC+ against LHP. They only strike out 21.4% of the time against lefties which pushes Ray’s upside down a bit, but we’re talking about a guy who has averaged a 31.3% K rate over the past three seasons. He’s fine in cash game, but you can get away with cheaper too. If you do decide to use Ray, make sure he hasn’t been traded.

Other options – Walker Buehler, Stephen Strasburg, Trevor Bauer, Aaron Nola

VALUE PLAY

Kyle Gibson, MIN ($7400)

Gibson doesn’t have the skillset of the players above, but he does have a terrific matchup and is a fraction of the cost. The White Sox have a 28.1% K rate since the second half began which is highest in the majors and their 25.9% K rate against RHP is third in the league, and they also rank 25th in wRC+ against RHP. Gibson is a -190 favorite (bigger than all the guys above) and his K projection should fall right in line with some of them. He’s your path to a solid pitching floor plus multiple big bats.

Other options – Chris Archer, Yonny Chirinos, Alex Wood, Kevin Gausman, Elisier Hernandez

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

TOP PLAY

Anthony Rizzo, CHC ($4100)

Rizzo is the top play at the position as he faces Zack Davies who is going to get hit by the regression trade hard soon. Davies has a 3.18 ERA but it’s backed by a 5.08 xFIP and 5.33 SIERA, and he’s struck out a career low 15.6% this season. Since the beginning of last year, Rizzo has a .386 wOBA and .250 ISO against RHP. He’s a terrific target today.

Other options – Paul Goldschmidt, Pete Alonso, Freddie Freeman, Rhys Hoskins, Josh Bell

VALUE PLAY

Ji-Man Choi, TB ($2500)

Choi is a lock in cash games today no matter what pitcher you use. He projects to hit leadoff for the Rays who have an IRT of 5.4 runs, and Choi has a .202 ISO against RHP since 2017. In that span, opposing pitcher Aaron Sanchez has allowed a .366 wOBA to LHB while only striking out 14.2% of them, and his 5.47 SIERA is in the bottom five for all qualified pitchers.

Other options – Nate Lowe, Joey Votto, Jesus Aguilar, Rowdy Tellez

Catcher values – Willson Contreras, Yasmani Grandal, JT Realmuto, Jason Castro

SECOND BASE

TOP PLAY

Jose Altuve, HOU ($4100)

As usual, 2B is a place to grab value in cash games, but Altuve is a tremendous GPP play. Opposing pitcher Dakota Hudson has been great at keeping the ball on the ground so far in his career with an elite 58.9% GB rate, but that’s about all he does well. He doesn’t miss bats (16.6% K rate) and his 4.96 SIERA is well over his 3.61 ERA with an 11% BB rate to boot. The Astros should fly under the radar a bit on this slate, but they’re at full strength and have an IRT of 5.1 runs.

Other options – Max Muncy, Ketel Marte, Keston Huira

VALUE PLAY

Scooter Gennett, CIN ($2600)

Gennett’s consistency in the lineup has been very spotty lately, but if he’s in there he’s the value I want at 2B. He’s far too cheap for someone who has a .194 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year, and the Reds have an IRT of 5.6 against Peter Lambert. It’s going to be over 90 in Cincy today, and Lambert has a 4.60 SIERA with only a 17% K rate so far. He does project as one of the better prospects in the Rockies system, so maybe a GPP fade of the Reds wouldn’t be awful, but they have some nice values in cash.

Other options – Ozzie Albies, Cavan Biggio, Robinson Cano, Jonathan Schoop

THIRD BASE

TOP PLAY

Eugenio Suarez, CIN ($3700)

Speaking of the Reds, Suarez is looking like one of the better cash plays on FD at only $3700. He’s been rocking the ball lately with a 34.4% HHR and eight homers over his last 15 games. He also carries a .240 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year, and Lambert has allowed 2.20 HR/9 at the MLB level so far.

Other options – Kris Bryant, Jose Ramirez, Eduardo Escobar, Nolan Arenado

VALUE PLAY

Luis Arraez, MIN ($3000)

There’s a bit too much opportunity cost at 3B not to pay up today, but Arraez is viable, and is wonderful in GPPs as part of Twins stacks. All he’s done since his promotion is work the strike zone, with a .374/.450/.481 triple slash along with an elite 1.64 BB/K ratio. The Twins are far and away the best offense on this slate with an IRT of 6.1 runs, and Arraez’s cash viability could really shoot up the charts if he moves up the lineup (it is Sunday, after all).

Other options – Yoan Moncada, Vladimir Guerrero, JD Davis

SHORTSTOP

TOP PLAY

Francisco Lindor, CLE ($4400)

My man-crushing of Lindor continues today. He has three hits in three consecutive games and a 35.7% HHR over his last 15, and he’s hitting homers and stealing bases as well. Lindor is better from the left side, but there’s nothing wrong with his .369 wOBA and .221 ISO against LHP since last year. He’s more than viable in all formats, but we do have an intriguing value play below…

Other options – Javier Baez, Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa

VALUE PLAY

Trevor Story, COL ($3600)

I don’t know if I’ve ever seen Story this cheap, and I also don’t think I’ve ever written him up in the “value” section of one of my articles. Story is away from Coors Field, but Great American Ballpark isn’t exactly pitcher friendly either, and the temps are going to be over 90 there today. More importantly, Story has a .402 wOBA and .312 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year and will face Alex Wood who has been dealing with a long-term injury. The kicker? Story ALSO has a 41.5% HHR over his last 15 games. I don’t know how you fade here.

Other options – Jean Segura, Kevin Newman, Jung Ho Kang, Willy Adames

OUTFIELD

TOP PLAY

THE TWINS OUTFIELD (Cruz $4600/Kepler $4000/Rosario $3800)

No matter who you use at SP, you need at least one of these guys in there. The Twins carry by far the highest IRT on the slate and they’ve also hit the most homers and posted the second highest HHR over the last 15 games. All three of these guys have an ISO of at least .245 against RHP since the beginning of last season and will be facing Dylan Covey who has a career 5.43 FIP and 15.3% K rate at the MLB level. He should get obliterated in this one. Of the three, Kepler is my favorite as he’ll lead off and has a 30% HHR over his last 15 with four homers in his last seven games.

Other options – Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, Bryce Harper, Ronald Acuna, Tommy Pham, Ryan Braun, George Springer, Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, Oscar Mercado

VALUE PLAY

THE REDS OUTFIELD (Senzel $3400/Puig $3300/Winker $2800/Van Meter $2500)

OK, so I wrote up six players in the OF section. These are clearly the two offenses to targets on both ends of the spectrum, and carry heavy floors and ceilings. Any of the above options can be used for salary relief, and I expect they’ll all be pretty popular. Puig is the best option with his .263 ISO against RHP since last year, but the other two are terrific as well at cheaper tags. Josh VanMeter will likely be the highest owned at the cheapest price tag, as he’s homered in three straight games with eight hits in those games as well. Whew.

Other options – Austin Meadown, Avisail Garcia, Kyle Schwarber, Michael Conforto, Lorenzo Cain, Jordan Luplow, Byron Buxton, Randal Grichuk, Tyler O’Neill, Jose Martinez

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