FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 7/27/19


DraftKings was a big success last night, but FD was a failure, compounded by my garbage take on the Nationals stacks winning GPPs. I lost ten bucks to our own @rickbaso on top of everything else, so let’s get cracking on today. Full disclosure – pitching is GARBAGE tonight outside of Cole, and he’s not even a great per-dollar value at such an expensive price. Decisions will have to be made, so join us in chat later and follow me on twitter @jac3600.

STARTING PITCHER

TOP PLAY

Gerrit Cole, HOU ($12,000)

Cole laps the field today at SP, but the problem is he’ll cost you Trout and some of the red hot Twins outfielders. His K rate of 38% is unbelievable this season, and he currently has 205 K’s which has him on pace to actually challenge the single-season record. He’s traveling to St. Louis to take on an NL team so he won’t have to deal with the DH, and the Cardinals rank 21st in wOBA and 23rd in OPS against RHP this season. He’s SO much better than every other pitcher, but I still want to explore other options simply to get in all the good offense tonight.

Other options – Mike Clevinger

VALUE PLAY

Steven Matz, NYM ($6400)

Gross, gross, gross. Honestly, though, there’s really not much better options if this is the route you’re choosing to take in order to get all the bats. Matz has actually been quite good at home this season with a 3.32 SIERA and a 10.2 K/9, and the Pirates rank dead last in wOBA against LHP. Their IRT is 4.2 runs which is tied for the third lowest on the slate (only the opponents of Cole and Clevinger are lower).

Other options – Anthony DeSclafani, Chase Anderson, Zack Eflin, Martin Perez, Trevor Williams

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

TOP PLAY

Matt Olson, OAK ($3700)

The A’s are a team you’re going to want to target tonight. Adrian Sampson is not only a bad pitcher (4.65 SIERA, 48.2% HHR allowed) but he’s actually been MUCH worse than that lately, posting a SIERA of over 9.00 over his last five outings while walking more than he’s struck out. The A’s are a powerful team to begin with, and Olson is especially good in this one with a .360 wOBA and .286 ISO against RHP since last year.

Other options – Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Carlos Santana, Pete Alonso, Willson Contreras

VALUE PLAY

Joey Votto, CIN ($3300)

The Reds have a higher IRT (5.9) than the Angels (5.7) who are facing the Baltimore staff, which really says something about their matchup. Chi Chi Gonzalez is flat-out awful, with a 5.91 SIERA, 15.4% K rate, 13.9% BB rate, and 39% HHR allowed. Votto has clearly declined, but he still walks at a high level and has a .370 wOBA against RHP since last year. Plays like this are important if you commit to Cole.

Other options – Daniel Murphy, Brandon Belt, Mark Canha

Catcher values – Yasmani Grandal, James McCann, Jason Castro, Tucker Barnhart

SECOND BASE

TOP PLAY

Keston Huira, MIL ($4000)

I mean, the guy just isn’t stopping. He has a 52.9% HHR over his last 15 games with eight multi-hit games in that span. He’s too expensive to consider for cash, but he’ll have the platoon edge against Jon Lester and has a .196 ISO against LHP so far in his young, budding career.

Other options – Jose Altuve

VALUE PLAY

Scooter Gennett, CIN ($2500)

As is generally the case, second base is the position to value hunt as there is almost never any opportunity cost there. Gennett is basically a gift here at $2500, as he provides you almost free access to the Reds’ 5.9 IRT. It’s basically been a lost season for Gennett with injuries thus far, but he’s got a .194 ISO against RHP since last year and is facing arguably the worst pitcher on the slate (yes, even over Adrian Sampson, Glenn Sparkman, and the Baltimore guy). I’d use Gennett in cash even if you go cheap at SP.

Other options – Jason Kipnis, Ozzie Albies (bump up if he hits second again), Robinson Cano, Jonathan Schoop

THIRD BASE

TOP PLAY

Jose Ramirez, CLE ($4000)

Ramirez homered again yesterday, and we’re finally seeing the guy we thought we’d get when he was drafted as a top five overall pick back in March. Ramirez has five multi-hit games in his last six with three homers and two SBs, and has a 40% HHR over his last 15. He’s facing Glenn Sparkman who has a 5.48 SIERA and a meager 12.5% K rate while allowing a 40.8% HHR. Good luck, Glenn.

Other options – Nolan Arenado, Josh Donaldson, Eugenio Suarez, Alex Bregman

VALUE PLAY

Matt Chapman, OAK ($3300)

If you use Cole at SP, Chapman is a lock, and if you go cheap I like the idea of possibly using both these third basemen. As bad as Adrian Sampson has been overall, he’s been even worse against same-handed hitting, allowing a .388 wOBA and 2.10 HR/9 to RHB. Matt Chapman is the best reverse split hitter on the A’s, posting a .356 wOBA and .265 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. He’s possibly the best per-dollar play on the slate.

Other options – David Fletcher, Luis Arraez, Pablo Sandoval, JD Davis

SHORTSTOP

TOP PLAY

Francisco Lindor, CLE ($4200)

Lindor gets the same matchup described in Jose Ramirez’s blurb, and he’s been just as hot as Jose with a 35.7% HHR over his last 15 with nine multi-hit games, five homers, and three steals in that span. Lindor has a .231 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year, and the awful Glenn Sparkman is backed by a bullpen that ranks 27th in SIERA. Can you see why I might be OK fading Cole? The offense is remarkable and we haven’t even discussed the Angels and Twins yet!

Other options – Trevor Story, Javier Baez, Carlos Correa, Jorge Polanco

VALUE PLAY

Jorge Polanco, MIN ($3500)

If you don’t go with Lindor, Polanco is the guy you want. The Twins are absolutely mashing the ball right now, and there’s no reason they won’t continue that against Ivan Nova who has a 5.04 SIERA and under a 15% K rate on the season (and under 12.5% against LHP). Minnesota has the highest IRT on the slate at 6.2 runs, and Polanco will hit second and likely get five PAs against a bad pitching staff. He’s too cheap.

Other options – Marcus Semien, Dansby Swanson, Jonathan Villar, Jung Ho Kang

OUTFIELD

TOP PLAY

Mike Trout, LAA ($5000)

Trout was a letdown last night with only six FD points, but you can’t let that sway you away from him tonight. Trout will take aim at the worst pitching staff in the league, and Aaron Brooks will start it off. He’s got a 5.46 FIP and a 16.4% HR/FB rate this season, an Trout has a .445 wOBA and .360 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. Come on, now.

Other options – Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton, Christian Yelich, Ronald Acuna, Charlie Blackmon, Oscar Mercado, Michael Conforto

VALUE PLAY

Max Kepler, MIN ($3700)

Kepler is not in the “cheap” range where I normally write up the values, but he’s still FAR too cheap on FD at $3700. A lot of focus in Minnesota is on Nelson Cruz’s homer binge (rightfull so), but Kepler is going bonkers right now too with four homers in his last six games and a 47.5% HHR in that span. He’s in the midst of a monster breakout year, will lead off on the road against Ivan Nova, and has a .360 wOBA and .247 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year.

Other options – Nick Senzel, Yasiel Puig, Jesse Winker, Phillip Ervin, Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain, David Dahl, Kyle Schwarber, Jake Bauers, Ramon Laureano, Khris Davis, Robbie Grossman, Byron Buxton

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