FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 7/25/19


The winning streak is up to eight days for me on FanDuel, but unfortunately DK remains too inconsistent for any kind of major profit (even though I won big on the afternoon slate). Tonight we only have six games to deal with, and I finally won’t fall for the Marlins trap anymore. We’ll be in chat helping our FTA+ subs hit, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.

STARTING PITCHER

TOP PLAY AND TOP VALUE

Jose Berrios, MIN ($9300)

There are many GPP plays you can do to different on a shorter slate but in cash there is only one answer, and it’s Berrios. Yes, his 2.92 ERA is masked by a 4.13 SIERA but the rest of his peripherals are terrific and his matchup is even better. The White Sox now are tied for the second highest K rate against RHP and they’ve fallen to 27th in wOBA against them. Berrios has the only IRTA under four runs (by a good bit) and is a -150 favorite despite facing the second best pitcher on the slate (Giolito).

Other options – Lucas Giolito, Rick Porcello, Brett Anderson, Jose Suarez, Jimmy Yacabonis

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

TOP PLAY

Edwin Encarnacion, NYY ($4300)

Edwin homered again last night, and he now has three straight multi-hit games with a 38.2% HHR over his last ten. Edwin has always been a bingy hitter, and you’re catching him at a perfect time right (plus he’s gotten a lineup boost with Gary Sanchez hitting the IL). My “gut” worries about Rick Porcello showing up in a big game against the division rival Yankees, but the numbers say he’s awful and fully attackable. Porcello has a 5.03 SIERA and only a 7.6% swinging strike rate this season, and Vegas agrees as the Yanks have a slate-high IRT of 5.7 runs.

Other options – Carlos Santana, Matt Olson, Luke Voit, Dan Vogelbach

VALUE PLAY

Omar Narvaez, SEA ($2500)

You’re going to find more Mariners in your lineup on this short slate than you ordinarily would, but they’re quietly a solid stack with an IRT of 5.3 runs. Drew VerHagen is getting the start for Detroit and he has a career 4.86 SIERA and 15.4% HR/FB rate. He’s also backed by a bullpen that ranks 28th in SIERA, and Narvaez quietly has a .194 ISO against RHP this year.

Other options – Jose Abreu, Michael Chavis, Mark Canha, Miguel Cabrera

Catcher values – Roberto Perez, Pedro Severino, Austin Romine

SECOND BASE

TOP PLAY

Gleyber Torres, NYY ($3700)

Torres works great for GPPs in Yankee stacks, but 2B is going to be a place to grab value in cash. Torres has a 30.6% HHR over his last 15 games, and gets to attack the shell of Rick Porcello. He has major GPP upside.

Other options – None

VALUE PLAY

David Fletcher, LAA ($2700)

As this article is being written, the Angels have launched into the lead for the highest IRT on the slate with 5.9 runs. This is due to then having the enviable task of facing the Orioles who trot out one lousy pitcher after another. Today it’s Jimmy Yacabonis who has allowed 2.14 HR/9 this year while allowing a 6.01 FIP in 23 appearances. David Fletcher is not the best hitter, but everyone gets a boost against the O’s, especially when they lead off for this price tag.

Other options – Niko Goodrum, Juricksfon Profar, Luis Rengifo

THIRD BASE

TOP PLAY

Rafael Devers, BOS ($4300)

Masahiro Tanaka has been pretty good this year, but he’s still an average strikeout pitcher who has allowed a 40.2% HHR. Rafael Devers has ascended to stardom this season and is still mashing the ball for a 39.1% HHR over his last 15 games. Devers has a .251 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year, and Tanaka has always struggled with the longball, particularly to lefties. Boston’s IRT is right there with the top teams at 5.4.

Other options – Jose Ramirez, DJ LeMahieu, Hunter Dozier

VALUE PLAY

Matt Chapman, OAK ($3400)

The A’s are a team we haven’t touched on yet either. They come in with an IRT of 5.4 runs despite being at home in a pitchers park, and it’s pretty much based on the quality of opposing pitcher. Ariel Jurado is incapable of missing bats (7.5% swinging strike rate), and he has allowed a 43.5% HHR this year while posting a 4.97 SIERA. Matt Chapman is a fantastic hitter in the reverse split, posting a .356 wOBA and .265 ISO against RHP since last year. He’s a solid value on FD.

Other options – Miguel Sano, Tim Beckham, Kyle Seager

SHORTSTOP

TOP PLAY

Francisco Lindor, CLE ($4100)

Didi Gregorius (see below) will be megachalk after the series he had in Minnesota, but the UTIL spot still gives you at least a bit of hope in playing Lindor as well. He’s out of his better split, but Lindor has still posted a .360 wOBA and .228 ISO against LHP since last year, and Mike Montgomery is limited to about 60 pitches today anyway. After him, the KC bullpen takes over and they’re ranked 26th in SIERA. Lindor is hot, posting a 35.9% HHR last 15.

Other options – Xander Bogaerts, Jorge Polanco

VALUE PLAY

Didi Gregorius, NYY ($3300)

Didi’s price rose, but not fast enough. Over his last two games, Didi has posted an unbelievable 95.6 FanDuel points, which means EVERYONE will be on him tonight against Rick Porcello. Didi has a .208 ISO against RHP since last year, and Porcello has allowed 1.34 HR/9 to LHB in that span. With Sanchez’s injury, Didi should hit no lower than fifth in this one.

Other options – Marcus Semien, Jonathan Villar, JP Crawford, Andrelton Simmons

OUTFIELD

TOP PLAY

Mike Trout, LAA ($5000)

The most expensive pitcher on the slate is $9300, which means Trout is easy to fit in. Somehow, he’s even better this year than he’s ever been, and he’s also hot right now with a 37% HHR last 15. Trout is the best hitter on the planet, has a .445 wOBA and .360 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year, and now gets nine innings against a historically bad pitching staff. Make room for him – there are plenty of values to make it work.

Other options – Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton, Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Oscar Mercado, Domingo Santana

VALUE PLAY

Mallex Smith, SEA ($3000)

Also as of this writing, the Mariners have matched the Yankees in IRT at 5.7 runs, which is significant given that their offense is not near as talented. Smith will not give you any power upside, but his 0.067 SB/PA is the highest on the slate and he should get five PAs for an offense projected to succeed tonight. Picture Adam Eaton with a little more speed. I’m down.

Other options – Kole Calhoun, Nick Castellanos, Victor Reyes, Jacoby Jones, Khris Davis, Ramon Laureano, Robbie Grossman, Delino DeShields, Jordan Luplow, Alex Gordon, Jackie Bradley, Matt Tauchman, Brett Gardner

Fantasy Baseball