Yesterday’s lineups CRUSHED it. I wish I had a chance to follow up today with our 14-game slate, but I’ll be traveling to NY and won’t be in chat today or tomorrow. If you were with us last night, hopefully your pockets are a little fatter this morning. It’s an interesting slate today, with good pitchers in bad spots and Houston traveling to Coors Field. @FTAKJ and @Thoreosnmilk will take care of you in chat, and you can always follow me on twitter @jac3600.
James Paxton, SEA ($9300)
Unless we hear of a pitch count for Paxton, he should be considered the top option, and you can have him at a discount today which is fantastic. The Giants rank 20th in wRC+ against LHP and have been running out lineups that feature names that are barely major leaguers. The Giants aren’t the best team for K’s, but Paxton has an elite 32.2% K rate this season to go along with a sparkling 3.04 xFIP. We had him in the Cy Young conversation back in May, and he’s not priced that way.
Other options – Aaron Nola, Gerrit Cole, Kenta Maeda
Felix Pena, LAA ($7100)
I was hoping to get Pena in the 6k range, but he’s still a fun GPP option at $7100. He’s a very wide splits pitcher who gets hammered by lefties but has thus far dominated righties for a .318 wOBA allowed and a 31% K rate. The White Sox will generally run out a lineup that featured seven righty bats, and they have a very low IRT of 3.6 runs. Throw in the fact that Pena is a -195 favorite in a pitcher-friendly environment and there’s a lot of ways this pick can work out for you.
Other options – Zack Wheeler, Masahiro Tanaka, Kyle Hendricks, Drew Pomeranz, Burch Smith, Eric Lauer
Anthony Rizzo, CHC ($4000)
Much like yesterday, I don’t see the need to spend at the 1B position in cash. Rizzo is an elite GPP option against Clay Buccholz who is once again allowing almost a 40% HHR this season. Rizzo has posted a .388 wOBA and .244 ISO against RHP over the past three seasons, and he’s been leading off lately which gives him the upside for that extra PA.
Other options – Joey Votto, Edwin Encarnacion, Paul Goldschmidt, Yuli Gurriel, Evan Gattis
Wilmer Flores, NYM ($2500)
Flores is easily played in cash at the 1B position with a price tag that hasn’t seemed to move all season. The Mets offense as a whole is a joke but they have an IRT over four runs against Eric Lauer who has really struggled with command and hard contact allowed this year. Flores is a known lefty killer with a .197 ISO against them since the beginning of last year, and he should bat third of fourth.
Other options – Mitch Moreland, Yonder Alonso, Jose Martinez, Eric Hosmer, Lucas Duda
Catcher values – Yadier Molina, Salvador Perez, Tucker Barnhart, Jonathan Lucroy
Jose Altuve, HOU ($4500)
Even in Coors Field, the Astros do not have the highest IRT on the slate, but their 5.5 mark is nothing to ignore. Rockies pitcher Tyler Anderson has been very good lately, but Houston ranks second in wRC+ against LHP and is getting the big Coors boost. Altuve has a .400 wOBA and .183 ISO against LHP over the past three seasons, and he’s really picked up the running lately. He’s viable across all formats.
Other options – Javier Baez, Brian Dozier, Jonathan Schoop
Jed Lowrie, OAK ($3100)
You could make the case that the A’s are the best hitting team in baseball right now, and they continued their onslaught last night by hanging 15 runs on Cole Hamels and the Rangers. Unfortunately Lowrie didn’t get in on the fun, but temps are once again projected to be in triple digits and Oakland has an IRT of 5.4 runs which rivals the Astros and the Red Sox. Mike Minor has allowed a .200 ISO to RHB since the beginning of last year, and Lowrie maintains the platoon edge throughout the game.
Other options – Rougned Odor, Whit Merrifield, Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoan Moncada, Daniel Murphy, Niko Goodrum
Matt Carpenter, STL ($4200)
Nolan Arenado in Coors is finally not the top overall play at third, and honestly he’s not even second as I have Bregman neck-and-neck with Carpenter. Ultimately the $500 discount is more than enough for the tiebreaker and Carpenter has an even better matchup than Bregman. Carpenter has an unreal HHR of 49% for the entire month of July and has a .386 wOBA and .254 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. He’s getting a park upgrade and facing Homer Bailey, owner of a 6.29 FIP, 5.52 K/9, and 2.18 HR/9 allowed. Yowza.
Other options – Alex Bregman, Nolan Arenado, Jose Ramirez, Kris Bryant
Eugenio Suarez, CIN ($3400)
Suarez is an interesting value as his price has dropped from its usual 4k range to $3400. St. Louis pitcher Austin Gomber will try to follow in Daniel Poncedelon’s footsteps today, but he doesn’t have near Ponce’s K upside and the Reds have an IRT of 5.1 runs. Suarez has been a beast against left-handed pitching, posting a .377 wOBA and .253 ISO against them over the past two seasons. If you can’t get all the way up to Carpenter or Bregman, Suarez is a viable drop-down, but I’d spend the money here.
Other options – Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw, Matt Chapman, Rafael Devers, Adrian Beltre
TOP PLAY AND TOP VALUE
Marcus Semien, OAK ($3200)
I wouldn’t look past Semien today for cash. He’ll lead off for the A’s in Texas against another lefty, and Semien has a .202 ISO against LHP over the past two seasons. He also has a whopping 50% HHR over his last 15 games, and should get five PAs against a lousy Rangers pitching staff. He’s worth at least $500 more, so take the gift of this discount.
Other options – Francisco Lindor, Jose Peraza, Elvis Andrus, Paul DeJong, Andrelton Simmons, Amed Rosario
George Springer, HOU ($4400)
Springer’s brutal slump seems to be a distant memory, and now he gets to lead off against lefty in Coors Field. Tyler Anderson has been great lately, but he’s still allowed a .186 ISO to RHB since the beginning of last year and Springer has a .399 wOBA and .238 ISO against LHP in that span. With the savings on Paxton, you can probably fit two 4k bats in, and Springer is more than viable as one of them.
Other options – Mike Trout, Justin Upton, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Khris Davis, Charlie Blackmon, Bryce Harper, Christian Yelich, Michael Brantley
Mark Canha/Chad Pinder, OAK ($2500/$2500)
One of these two guys should hit second for the A’s, making either one a solid cash game value. Canha is particular has a .268 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year, and Matt Joyce being on the DL takes away the main PH risk. Mike Minor is fully attackable with A’s bats, and one of these guys should be a gift.
Other options – Shin Soo Choo, Joey Gallo, Willie Calhoun, Tommy Pham, Marcell Ozuna, Leonys Martin, Joc Pederson, Matt Kemp, Adam Eaton, Ryan Braun, Keon Broxton, Nick Castellanos, Stephen Piscotty, Carlos Gonzalez, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Danny Valencia