I was all set for a nice “Severino over Kluber” blurb to open this article, but then Jacob deGrom was pushed back to today and surpassed them both. We have 13 games on tap for a Monday which is awesome, and I’ll be in chat with you helping out. FYI – I am taking a trip back to NY tomorrow so my attendance may be spotty this coming week, and there will be no article on Wednesday or Sunday of this coming week. All right, business is out of the way, so let’s get to it!
Jacob deGrom, NYM ($11,500)
As I said, deGrom has passed the original two aces on this slate and taken the gold for the top overall SP. The argument can be made that deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball with a 1.68 ERA and 30.7% K rate, and now he gets a matchup he should dominate in. The Padres rank 29th in wRC+ against RHP with the highest K rate against them. It’s not an absolute lock to have to pay up for starting pitching, but that’s the way I’m going right now with so much opportunity cost.
Other options – Luis Severino, Corey Kluber, Ross Stripling
Patrick Corbin, ARI ($8700)
Corbin is definitely on the radar as a cost saver, especially in GPP with his very friendly price tag. The matchup against the Cubs is tough as they rank 7th in wRC+ against LHP with a below-average K rate, but Corbin has posted an elite 30.4% K rate this year which is akin to the studs (and better than Severino and Kluber). I prefer this route in GPPs given the tough matchup, but the price tag is viable in cash if there are expensive bats you just can’t avoid.
Other options – Sean Newcomb, Francisco Liriano, Luis Castillo, Daniel Poncedeleon, Jaime Barria
Joey Votto, CIN ($3800)
Votto will take on Cardinals prospect Daniel Poncedeleon (whose name I can’t figure out if I love or hate), and Poncedeleon is a mystery with an elite K rate in AAA. That said, I’m siding with Votto’s incredible cash floor, and he’s got a .414 wOBA and .227 ISO against RHP over the past two seasons. He’s a tough fit in cash alongside a top stud, but you can make it work if you want him.
Other options – Edwin Encarnacion, Paul Goldschmidt, Justin Smoak, Cody Bellinger
Logan Morrison/Joe Mauer, MIN ($3000)
The Twins are one of the most intriguing stacks on this slate despite having an IRT of only 4.5 runs. They will face a bullpen game from Toronto, with journeyman Luis Santos getting the start. Santos has a 7.88 ERA at the big league level so far, buoyed by a 4.50 BB/9. ZiPS actually projects him to be much worse, and either of these first basemen are viable at a value price tag. Mauer is safer, while Morrison offers the power upside.
Other options – Yonder Alonso, Jose Abreu, Kendrys Morales, Wilmer Flores
Catcher values – Salvador Perez, Robinson Chirinos, Russell Martin, Victor Martinez
Brian Dozier, MIN ($3800)
Dozier doesn’t have the platoon edge, but he’s well worth his price tag in all formats. The dude is just crushing lately, with a 50% HHR and .313 ISO in the month of July. He gets the same matchup described above, and the Toronto bullpen ranks 21st in xFIP and 26th in ISO allowed. This is nine innings worth of upside at a sub-4k tag.
Other options – Scooter Gennett, Whit Merrifield
Niko Goodrum, DET ($2800)
The Tigers are a SUPER sneaky stack (say that five times fast) tonight, and individual options can be used in cash play. Heath Fillmeyer is making a spot start for the Royals, and he has a 5.45 FIP while walking more than he’s struck out at the MLB level. Even if he gets the quick hook, he’s backed by a KC bullpen that ranks dead last in both FIP and xFIP, and Detroit has an IRT pushing five runs (rare for them).
Other options – Yoan Moncada, Jed Lowrie, Ian Kinsler, Daniel Murphy
Kris Bryant, CHC ($3800)
I love Bryant for GPPs, but the 3B position has a standout value (see below) for cash. Bryant gets a difficult draw against Patrick Corbin, but he’s obliterated LHP over the past two years for a .434 wOBA and .308 ISO. The tough matchup will likely cause KB to go very low owned, and he’s got GPP winning upside.
Other options – Jose Ramirez, Matt Carpenter, Max Muncy, Eugenio Suarez
Adrian Beltre, TEX ($2500)
At a $2500 price tag, the cash conversation begins and ends with Beltre. Even though he’s “one the decline”, Beltre has still posted a .415 wOBA and .215 ISO against LHP over the last two years, and he’ll get to hit in Arlington where temps are once again projected to be over 100 degrees. The Rangers’ IRT of 5.3 runs is hot on the trail of Cleveland (5.4) for the highest of the day, and Beltre is just mispriced. Take advantage.
Other options – Eduardo Escobar, Yangervis Solarte, Luis Valbuena
Francisco Lindor, CLE ($4800)
If you want a luxury play at SS for GPPs, Lindor is your man, but like the 3B position there’s a standalone value for me in cash. Lindor is mashing the ball this season, and comes with elite power and speed upside. The Indians currently have the highest IRT on the slate at 5.4 runs, and Trevor Williams has allowed a .217 ISO to LHB since the beginning of last season. After getting shut out by Yovani Gallardo (wtf), look for Cleveland to wake up again.
Other options – Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner
Marcus Semien, OAK ($3100)
Semien needs to be played in cash on the slate. He should hit first or second on the road in scorching hot Texas, and he’s posted a .202 ISO against LHP since the beginning of 2016. Cole Hamels has bounced back this season in the K department, but he’s still allowing a ton of hard contact which has also led to a career high 1.73 HR/9 allowed. The A’s have an IRT of 5.2 runs, and this TEX/OAK game is clearly the best one to attack.
Other options – Elvis Andrus, Jose Peraza, Andrelton Simmons, Tim Beckham
Mike Trout, LAA ($4500)
I feel like it’s been awhile since I’ve written about the best player on the planet, but tonight he’s the guy. He’s a difficult fit as the “one big spend” if you’re committing so much money to SP, but I want to try and make it work if at all possible. Trout is at home which isn’t the best hitting environment, but he’s facing arguably the worst pitcher on the slate in Lucas Giolito. The White Sox righty has posted some endearing tweets lately, but it doesn’t take away from the fact that he’s got a 6.18/6.14/6.21 pitching slash and has walked over five batters per nine innings while only striking out that many as well. The Angels also have an IRT of 5.2 runs, and rightfully so. Trout is worth every penny.
Other options – Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Michael Brantley, Eddie Rosario
Khris Davis, OAK ($3400)
Davis is really intriguing at a mid-tier tag like this. His HHR over the last 15 games is at 42% and he’s one of the best lefty killers in the game. Davis actually leads the league in homers since the beginning of 2015, and this is backed up by an elite .250 ISO against LHP in that span. If you can get him in there, do it, as he also has three homers in 12 AB against Cole Hamels.
Other options – Justin Upton, Shohei Ohtani, Tommy Pham, Marcell Ozuna, Shin Soo Choo, Joey Gallo, Nick Castellanos, Joc Pederson, Matt Kemp, Adam Eaton, Randal Grichuk, Leonys Martin, Mark Canha, Chad Pinder, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun