I have landed in NY, and I’m hoping the #NewYorkNarrative happens because I’ve had some big days here. Heat indexes are in the 110s today all around the country so offense generally tends to flourish. Keeping that in mind, today is a bit tricky because we don’t have much to love on the cheap end of pitching. I will be back in chat helping all our FTA+ subs, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.
Clayton Kershaw, LAD ($10,800)
Kershaw has definitely lost a step on his K rates (23.5% K rate, 11.9% swinging strike rate) and he’s also allowed a 41% HHR this year. His walk rate is impeccable though (4.9%) and his GB rate of 52% is a career high. He’s by FAR the safest play on the board against Miami who is 29th in wOBA against LHP, and he’s a -300 favorite with a 2.9 IRTA (both of which blow away the rest of the slate). If you want this safety I don’t argue in the least, but just remember this will cost you offense.
Other options – Luis Castillo, Jose Berrios, Zack Greinke
Griffin Canning, LAA ($6900)
I gotta dumpster dive somehow to give you a chance to get all the bats in. I don’t love Canning with a 9% BB rate and only a 35.6% GB rate, but he’s in one of the few favorable pitching environments on the slate and the Mariners have a 24.8% K rate against RHP which is the sixth highest on the slate. There is no safety at all here, but that idea doesn’t exist if you want all the bats.
NOTE: Jose Urquidy has a prime matchup at $5500 – if the innings seems stable, he’s a fun value too.
Other options – Jose Urquidy, Rick Porcello, Miles Mikolas
Freddie Freeman, ATL ($4000)
The Braves have an IRT of 5.6 runs and it’s largely because Anibal Sanchez cannot possibly sustain his 3.71 ERA. He has an xFIP of 5.09, a BABIP of .267, and a GB rate of 34.3%, and Freeman just continues to be an elite hitter on all levels. Since the beginning of last year he has a .396 wOBA and .269 ISO against RHP.
Other options – Josh Bell, Carlos Santana, Rhys Hoskins, Mitch Garver
Joc Pederson, LAD ($2900)
Sandy Alcantara has started to show signs that’s he’s figuring it out at the MLB (heck, he was an All Star!). However, the Dodgers are a scary team against RHP and Alcantara still has the fifth highest SIERA of all qualified pitchers. He’s got a 16.5% K rate against a 10.5% BB rate, and Joc has a robust .299 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year.
Other options – Paul Goldschmidt, Michael Chavis, Joey Votto, Lucas Duda
Catcher values – Yasmani Grandal, JT Realmuto, Chance Sisco, Christian Vasquez
Jose Altuve, HOU ($3900)
The roof will almost certainly be closed in Houston with the ungodly temperatures outside, but that shouldn’t stop you from loving Houston bats. Ariel Jurado has allowed a 43.5% HHR this season with a 4.92 SIERA and only a 7.6% swinging strike rate. He’s also backed by a bullpen that ranks 26th in SIERA, and Altuve is swinging a hot bat.
Other options – Max Muncy, Eduardo Escobar
Jason Kipnis, CLE ($3300)
The Indians offense is another one you really want to attack with their 6.1 IRT. Kipnis has experienced a renaissance this season and generally hits fourth against RHP. Jake Junis is coming off a start where he made me a ton of money, but I don’t think a repeat performance is coming. His 5.08 ERA is fully backed up by all the peripherals, and he’s allowed a 42% HHR this season.
Other options – Derek Dietrich, Scooter Gennett, David Fletcher, Brock Holt, Nicky Lopez
Rafael Devers, BOS ($4600)
Here’s where it gets tricky with the pitching. The Red Sox disappointed last night, but they are the class offense on the slate tonight with a 7.1 IRT in temps that will be over 100 AND a premier hitting park. Tom Eshelman has nothing going for him as a quality MLB pitcher and is also backed by a bullpen that ranks last in xFIP, SIERA, wOBA allowed, and ISO allowed. Devers is nothing short of a superstar, and could even be considered the top overall hitter on the slate.
Other options – Jose Ramirez, Hunter Dozier, Matt Chapman, Josh Donaldson
Colin Moran, PIT ($2600)
If looking to save, Moran looks like the best bet even though he’s severely lacking the upside of the players above. Pittsburgh is also going to be playing in abysmally hot temps, and they have an IRT of 5.8 runs tonight. Zack Eflin faces a tough draw with his 4.70 SIERA, and the Pirates only strike out 18.3% of the time against RHP. Moran has held onto an .800 OPS this year against lefties, and that’s just too cheap on a slate like this.
Other options – Tommy Edman, Kyle Seager, Rio Ruiz
Xander Bogaerts, BOS ($4400)
The Sox onslaught continues with Bogaerts, who has a 34.4% HHR over his last 15 games and a 42% mark over his last ten. Prior to last night’s weird disappointment, Bogaerts had posted six straight multi-hit games and he has a .212 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. Like every other Red Sox bat, he’s worth playing in all formats.
Other options – Alex Bregman, Francisco Lindor, Jorge Polanco
Jonathan Villar, BAL ($2800)
It was the Orioles offense that went off last night, not the Red Sox, and they could very well again tonight at home playing in that heat. Baltimore’s offense is so weak in general that they’ll never have a monster IRT, so consider five runs high for them. Villar is not afraid to run, and Rick Porcello has just not been good this year with a 5.00 SIERA and 7.6% swinging strike rate.
Other options – Dansby Swanson, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Kevin Newman
TOP PLAYS AND TOP VALUES
ALL THE BOSTON OUTFIELDERS (Betts $4700/JD $3900/Benintendi $3500/$Bradley $2500)
The way to success tonight is to finish with at least two of these guys. Betts is the toughest to get with expensive pitching, but the others are more than OK. JD Martinez in particular is a bit of a gift as he should never be under 4K no matter who the opponent, so I’m considering him a lock. Martinez has a .392 wOBA and .288 ISO against same-handed pitching and will get nine innings of upside against the BAL pitching staff. He can be fit in even alongside Kershaw, and Jackie Bradley fits builds with any pitcher. He surprisingly has a .203 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. Prioritize these bats tonight.
Other top options – Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, Bryce Harper, Ronald Acuna, Joey Gallo, Justin Upton, Nelson Cruz, Starling Marte
Other values – Bryan Reynolds, Alex Gordon, Corey Dickerson, Shin Soo Choo, Khris Davis, Alex Verdugo, Tyler O’Neill, Jose Martinez, Jake Bauers, Austin Riley, Dwight SmithFantasy Baseball