FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 7/2/19


We at @FanTeamAdvice would like to join the rest of the baseball world in offering our sincere condolences to the Skaggs family following the untimely death of the Angels pitcher yesterday. What a sad thing to happen. As far as tonight goes, we’ll try and consider the human element as much as possible, but the Angels bats are (theoretically) in a great spot. We also have tons of pitching, and HOU/COL in Coors Field. Phew. I’ll be in chat all day helping our subs cash out, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.

STARTING PITCHER

TOP PLAY

Charlie Morton, TB ($10,800)

Length had been an issue for Morton, but it can’t be ignored that he’s getting a much longer leash now, as he’s last six or more innings in seven straight games, and nine out of his last ten. For someone who was considering retirement last year, Morton has looked like someone who has a lot left in the tank, posting a 30% K rate and a 13.3% swinging strike rate to go along with a 3.62 SIERA. He’s currently a -200 favorite with a 3.8 IRTA (both slate bests) and faces a Baltimore team that ranks 26th in wOBA against RHP. Pitching in TB is also one of the best offensive environments on the slate. Morton will cost you some Coors bats, but he’s viable in all formats.

Other options – Trevor Bauer, Patrick Corbin, Matthew Boyd

VALUE PLAY

James Paxton, NYY ($8700)

Paxton has had some command issues since returning from the IL, allowing 15 walks in 26.2 IP. However, this seems to have been baked into his price tag, as someone of his caliber is WAY too cheap at $8700. The matchup is not great as the Mets rank sixth in wOBA against LHP, but they also have an above average K rate and Paxton will be getting both an extreme park AND league shift (no DH to face). He has all the upside of the expensive guys above, plus you can get some serious bats in.

Other options – Zack Wheeler, David Price, Matt Strahm, Dallas Keuchel, Tyler Beede, Reynaldo Lopez, Ross Stripling

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

TOP PLAY AND TOP VALUE

Daniel Murphy, COL ($3400)

Coors Field is an interesting one tonight. We have the Rockies best pitcher going against a pretty highly touted prospect for Houston who has looked GOOD in AAA. So does that mean stay away? Not likely. Coors is Coors, and there’s a reason the O/U on this game is 13 runs. Colorado has an IRT of 6.7 against the rookie Jose Urquidy, and Daniel Murphy is simply mispriced. Since the beginning of last year, he has a .363 wOBA and .211 ISO against RHP, and that’s barely taking the Coors effect into account. Lock him in, even if you spend up at SP.

Other options – Anthony Rizzo, Freddie Freeman, Joey Votto, Eric Thames, Matt Adams, CJ Cron, Ji-Man Choi, Robinson Chirinos, Yasmani Grandal

Other catcher values – JT Realmuto, Tony Wolters, Buster Posey, Jonathan Lucroy

SECOND BASE

TOP PLAY

Jose Altuve, HOU ($4000)

Altuve’s matchup against German Marquez is not easy as the Rockies hurler handles righties fairly well with his devastating slider, but again, Coors is Coors. The Astros have an IRT of 6.3, and Marquez has a 4.25 FIP at home as opposed to a 3.30 mark on the road. Altuve doesn’t strike out much either, with only a 15.9% K rate against RHP. He’s worth his price.

Other options – Mike Moustakas, Max Muncy

VALUE PLAY

Brandon Lowe, TB ($3300)

Tampa Bay is one of the worse hitting environments on the slate, but a matchup against the Baltimore pitching staff knows no limitations when it comes to park factor. Tampa still has a solid IRT of 5.3 runs, and Baltimore’s pitching staff ranks last in overall SIERA. Lowe is in the midst of a breakout season, and he has a .262 ISO and 43% HHR against RHP so far. His price dropped $300 from yesterday, which is quite valuable on this slate.

Other options – Scooter Gennett, Ryan McMahon, Jason Kipnis, Keston Huira, Ronny Rodriguez

THIRD BASE

TOP PLAY

Nolan Arenado, COL ($4400)

Arenado is possibly in the midst of his best year, and he’s striking out a lot less too which is big against a pitcher who profiles to miss a lot of bats. Arenado has almost a 1.200 OPS at home since the beginning of last year, and he’s only struck out 10.8% of the time against RHP this year. I’m not calling any Rockies locks except for the too-cheap Murphy, but all must be considered in all formats with a 6.7 IRT.

Other options – Anthony Rendon, Rafael Devers, Yuli Gurriel

VALUE PLAY

Eugenio Suarez, CIN ($3100)

Suarez looks like the cash play that makes the most sense. He’s far too cheap at $3100, and the Reds have a healthy IRT of 5.3 runs against Chase Anderson who has struggled mightily lately. Anderson is a career reverse-split pitcher who has allowed a .201 ISO to RHB over the past three years, and Suarez is killing the ball right now with a 35.3% HHR over his last 15 games. I’d pass on Arenado and save your money for other big bats.

Other options – Jose Ramirez, Justin Turner, Matt Carpenter, Josh Donaldson

SHORTSTOP

TOP PLAY

Trevor Story, COL ($4000)

Story is expected to be activated from the IL tonight, and his price is down a bit as the sixth highest priced SS on the slate. Story’s thumb might keep him as a GPP-play only for me, but we’re talking about a guy with a 1.074 OPS at home this year. Jose Urquidy has serious K potential, but his 4.47 FIP at AA makes you wonder how well he’ll navigate this lineup in Coors in his debut.

Other options – Alex Bregman, Trea Turner, Francisco Lindor, Xander Bogaerts

VALUE PLAY

David Fletcher, LAA ($2600)

I totally understand if it worries you to play Angels tonight, as I’m sure their hearts are heavy. However, DFS is a numbers game, and we can’t ignore what a good spot the Angels seem to be in tonight. After the two Coors teams, they have the next highest IRT at 6.1, and I’m still firmly of the belief that Mike Minor’s regression is coming (2.40 ERA, 4.31 xFIP). It’s expected to be over 100 degrees at first pitch in Globe Life Park, and Texas’ bullpen is 25th in SIERA. Fletcher should lead off, and is dirt cheap.

Other options – Paul DeJong, Andrelton Simmons, Niko Goodrum

OUTFIELD

TOP PLAY

Charlie Blackmon, COL ($4500)

Blackmon and Mike Trout are the same price, which makes this decision brutal. Ultimately I have to side with the Coors effect here, and Blackmon has a 37% HHR since June 1. He’s running less now, but no one is complaining with the immense power that has accompanied him. Blackmon has a .362 wOBA and a .352 ISO against RHP this season, and he’ll lead off in Coors for the team with an IRT pushing seven runs. If you choose Trout as the better option, I don’t argue, but I think it’s a priority to pay up for one of these guys tonight.

Other options – Mike Trout, Justin Upton, David Dahl, George Springer, Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, JD Martinez, Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger

VALUE PLAY

Joc Pederson, LAD ($3300)

Joc is a streaky hitter, but he’s in the middle of a good one right now with hits in six straight and a 33.3% HHR in that span (27.5% last 15). The Dodgers are a very underrated stack with a 5.4 IRT at home, and they’re facing Taylor Clarke who has a 5.08 SIERA and only a 17% K rate. Clarke has struggled even more with lefties, and could be in for a world of hurt tonight. Joc remains very affordable on FD, and is one of the top values there with his .300 ISO against RHP since last year.

Other options – Alex Verdugo, Austin Meadows, Yasiel Puig, Jesse Winker, Ramiel Tapia, Kyle Schwarber, Shin Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Delino DeShields, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Tyler O’Neill

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