FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 7/2/18


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It’s a new week, and tonight’s slate is not devoid of anything.  We have ace pitchers, we have hot weather, and a fresh Coors series, so let’s get right down to business.  I will be in chat helping out with this nine-game goodness, and make sure to follow me on twitter @jac3600.  Be sure to watch the injury wire as well, as we have a couple of questionable players that could prove important.

STARTING PITCHER

TOP PLAY

Corey Kluber, CLE ($11,200)

Kluber and Max Scherzer sit atop the SP rankings, and they both blow away the field.  You really can’t go wrong with either one, but I’m giving Kluber the slight edge based on the better matchup and the fact that he’s $500 cheaper.  Max faces the Red Sox in his home park (which is great), but the Sox rank first in wRC+ against RHP and are second in ISO.  Kluber faces a Royals squad that has dropped all the way to 29th in wRC+ against RHP and their K rate has now exceeded the league average.  Scherzer has been simply the better pitcher this year, but not by a lot, and that extra $500 could go a long way.

Other options – Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray

VALUE PLAY

Luis Castillo, CIN ($7100)

I think you have to start your cash lineups with Scherzer or Kluber, but if you’re risk tolerant and completely married to offense tonight, Castillo is there for you to use.  He’s been rough to own this year, but he has double-digit K upside and has one of the best matchups you can imagine.  The White Sox will travel to the NL and lose the DH, and they’re a very right-handed lineup that ranks 28th in wRC+ against RHP with the sixth highest K rate.  Castillo is a -180 favorite with a 4.1 IRTA, and he’s an elite GPP option.  He’s also cash viable for the saucier players.

Other options – Alex Wood, Madison Bumgarner, Carlos Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Kyle Gibson, Jonathan Loaisiga

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

TOP PLAY

Joey Votto, CIN ($4300)

The Reds are challenging the Yankees and Giants (in Coors) for the top offense of the night, and Votto is the key player in the lineup.  He gets an absolutely beautiful matchup against James Shields who has allowed 1.88 HR/9 to LHB over the past three years, and Shields is (believe it or not) actually getting a park downgrade in this one going to Cincy.  He has a 5.09 xFIP with only a 16.2% K rate, and Votto has walked more than he’s struck out while posting a .254 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year.

Other options – Freddie Freeman, Eric Thames, Edwin Encarnacion, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt

VALUE PLAY

Greg Bird, NYY ($2900)

The Yankees are currently the top overall offense with a 5.5 IRT (over both Coors teams), and you’re going to want multiple exposure in your cash lineups.  Bird is the cheapest way to do this at a sub-3k price tag, and there’s a chance we see him hit as high as fifth.  Bird double-donged the other night against a Red Sox and carries a .204 ISO against RHP in his career.  Anibal Sanchez has pitched surprisingly well this year, but he’s outpitching his peripherals while allowing a 34.5% hard hit rate.

Other options – Jose Abreu, Yonder Alonso, Daniel Murphy, Brad Miller

Catcher values – Tucker Barnhart, Wilson Ramos, Yasmani Grandal, Austin Romine

SECOND BASE

TOP PLAY

Scooter Gennett, CIN ($3700)

This pick largely will follow the same reasoning behind Votto, except Gennett is a little more K prone while carrying a tad more power upside (.269 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year).  Getting Reds exposure is a good idea even at top prices, and Gennett’s K rate has dropped over 3% this year from last even though he’s sacrificed a bit of ISO.  He’s viable in all formats.

Other options – D.J. LeMahieu, Brian Dozier, Gleyber Torres

VALUE PLAY

Yoan Moncada, CHW ($3100)

Moncada is never correctly priced on FD when he’s facing a righty, and I’ll go back to the well every time despite his insane 35.5% K rate (which, of course, could be a problem against Luis Castillo).  Moncada has speed upside to go along with a career. 209 ISO against RHP, and seems to be a necessity if you’re taking the expensive SP route.

Other options – Alen Hanson, Jonathan Villar, Daniel DeScalso

THIRD BASE

TOP PLAY

Nolan Arenado, COL ($4900)

All right, we have to discuss the Rockies.  Yes, they’re in Coors, but their IRT is kept in check (4.7) due to matchup with Madison Bumgarner who looks like he’s starting to round into form.  This will not stop me from using Arenado in the majority of my GPP stacks (I don’t think you need to spend this money in cash unless you use Castillo at SP), as the Rockie slugger has an unreal .543 wOBA and .423 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last season (MUCH better than Stanton, to put it into perspective).  Bumgarner is not without his bugaboos either, as he’s allowed a .207 ISO to RHB in that span.

Other options – Jose Ramirez, Eugenio Suarez, Jake Lamb

VALUE PLAY

Travis Shaw, MIL ($3400)

Once again, Shaw is underpriced on FD and is viable in all formats despite the fact that he’s taking on Kyle Gibson who has impressed this year.  The Brewers have an IRT of 4.6 runs (on par with the Rockies in Coors), and Shaw has a .379 wOBA and .262 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last season.

Other options – Eduardo Escobar, Miguel Andujar, Pablo Sandoval, Matt Duffy, Mike Moustakas

SHORTSTOP

TOP PLAY

Didi Gregorius, NYY ($3800)

Didi is outclassed from a raw total perspective by Lindor and Story, but his cheaper price tag makes this an easy call for me in cash.  Didi should hit third for the team with the highest IRT on the slate, and he has a .234 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last season.  A lefty in Yankee Stadium always gets that added boost of the short RF porch, as well.

Other options – Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Brandon Crawford, Trea Turner

VALUE PLAY

Jose Peraza, CIN ($3200)

If you need a bit more savings, Peraza can be considered as long as he remains in the leadoff spot.  Peraza is known for his speed and not his bat, but he’s popped off three homers in his last five games, and the matchup against James Shields keeps that upside relevant.  At the very least, he’s a good bet to score a couple of runs and maybe steal a base, giving him a solid cash floor for the Reds and their 5.4 IRT.

Other options – Tim Anderson, Chris Taylor, Willy Adames

OUTFIELD

TOP PLAY

Aaron Judge/Giancarlo Stanton, NYY ($5000/$4600)

These guys will be tough to fit into your cash lineups if you go with Scherzer or Kluber, but they rank 1-2 as my top overall hitters for the day.  Anibal Sanchez has allowed a .378 wOBA and .228 ISO to same-handed hitters since the beginning of last year, and both Yankee sluggers have crushed righties in that span.  Judge has been the best with a .434 wOBA and .339 ISO against RHP, but Stanton is $400 cheaper and has a .361 wOBA and .265 ISO which is fantastic in its own right.  If you pay for one big bat make it one of these, and if you use Castillo as your SP, get them both in.

Other options – Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Michael Brantley, Andrew McCutchen, Gorkys Hernandez, Christian Yelich, Charlie Blackmon, Aaron Hicks, David Peralta

VALUE PLAY

Brett Gardner, NYY ($3400)

Gardner hit ninth all weekend against the Red Sox, but they faced three lefties, and I’d imagine he’s back in the leadoff spot tonight despite Aaron Hicks going bonkers last night with three homers.  Gardner is far too cheap as the table-setter for the Yankees, and he actually has a .350 wOBA and .176 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year.  He’s a solid piece to complement the ace pitchers.

Other options – Ender Inciarte, Marcell Ozuna, Harrisn Bader, Tommy Pham, Jesse Winker, Adam Duvall, Billy Hamilton, Lonnie Chisenhall, Tyler Naquin, Noel Cuevas, Hunter Pence, Jon Jay, Jarrod Dyson, Joc Pederson, Jonny Field

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