There was a lot of scrambling with the weather yesterday which led to a lot of unease in FTA chat. Ultimately it was a successful day for me on FD as I wound up with WAY more Diamondbacks than I originally had. Tonight we get an abbreviated slate, and even though the weather is really hot, the O/U’s are tame compared to what they’e been lately. Take the pitching while you can. I can be found on twitter @jac3600.
Trevor Bauer, CLE ($10,800)
There are some fun cheaper options for GPPs, but I’m building around Bauer tonight in cash. He’s been a bit shakier this year with a heightened walk rate and higher HHR than usual, but he still has monster K upside with a 27% K rate. Despite facing another ace in Matt Boyd, Bauer is still a -200 favorite with a 3.6 IRTA, and this matchup literally can’t get any better. Detroit is ranked last in both wOBA and wRC+ against RHP, and now they also have the highest K rate against them (26.1%) thanks to getting rung up 12 times by Mike Clevinger yesterday. With no tremendously big bats to have to force in, Bauer is a priority play for me in cash tonight.
Other options – Stephen Strasburg, Matthew Boyd
Madison Bumgarner, SF ($9000)
I was torn between MadBum and Syndergaard (his opponent), but I’ll take the $200 discount and the fact that Bumgarner has generally had more of an innings floor this year (he’s only failed to hit six innings three timessince May 1). The Mets had a ton of offensive fireworks yesterday but they’re getting a further park downgrade going to San Francisco and have a 23.8% K rate against LHP.
Other options – Noah Syndergaard, Tanner Roark, Kyle Gibson
Matt Olson, OAK ($3800)
The A’s have an IRT hovering right around five runs, and Olson has been one of their hottest hitters of late with a 37.5% HHR over his last 15 games. Kyle Gibson has pitched adequately for the Twins this season but his velocity is down over one MPH lately on his average fastball. Olson has had an incredible July with a 1.020 OPS and nine homers, but he doesn’t really fit the cash build with Bauer.
Other options – Freddie Freeman, Pete Alonso, Carlos Santana
Matt Adams, WAS ($2800)
The Nationals don’t have the gaudy IRT pushing seven runs that they have the last couple of games in Baltimore, but I’ll take Adams’ recent hot streak against Julio Teheran. The Braves righty has been terrible in his career against LHP, allowing 1.55 HR/9 and a .199 ISO, and Adams has a .263 ISO against RHP since last year. He’s also killing the ball with a 45.5% HHR over his last 15 games.
Other options – Paul Goldschmidt, Miguel Sano, Joey Votto, Eric Thames
Catcher values – Yasmani Grandal, Robinson Chirinos
Jose Altuve, HOU ($3900)
The Astros don’t have the best park factor in their favor playing in Anaheim, but they still have an IRT of 5.3 runs against Matt Harvey who has a 5.97 FIP and has allowed 1.84 HR/9 this season. Altuve has been killing it lately with a 35% HHR and over a 1.000 OPS in his last ten games, and he should get five PAs on the road.
Other options – Eduardo Escobar, Keston Huira
Derek Dietrich, CIN ($3000)
Dietrich left yesterday’s game with an injury so you’ll have to check on his status. If he’s in, he’s a solid value against Dakota Hudson who has just under a 14% K rate against LHP. Dietrich himself has been full of power the last two years, posting a .229 ISO and 41% HHR against RHP.
Other options – Scooter Gennett, Jonathan Schoop, Brian Dozier
Mike Moustakas, MIL ($3800)
To be perfectly honest, the Brewers’ IRT of 4.8 runs seems low to me. Merrill Kelly’s 3.93 ERA looks good, but it’s masked by a 4.97 xFIP and a 12.7% HR/FB rate. He also only has a 14.7% K rate against LHB this season, and that could spell trouble against these hitters. Moose has been one of the premier platoon hitters in the league lately, posting a .283 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last season.
Other options – Anthony Rendon, Matt Chapman, Eugenio Suarez, Jose Ramirez
Tommy Edman, STL ($2500)
Playing Bauer means you’ll need some punts, and Edman fits the bill as a $2500 leadoff hitter on the road. He’s not the best hitter, but he’s got a 25% HHR over his last ten games and a 0.027 SB/PA. St. Louis has an IRT of 4.9 runs, and Edman likely gets five PAs on the road in Cincinnati agains a pitching staff that ranks in the bottom ten in xFIP and ISO allowed.
Other options – Josh Donaldson, Jake Lamb
Alex Bregman, HOU ($4200)
It’s an incredibly close call between Bregman, Turner, and Lindor, but I’m going to ultimately side with the opposing matchup here, as Matt Harvey is clearly the worst opposing pitcher these three will face. Bregman is hitting the ball well again lately, and he has a solid .375 wOBA and .245 ISO against same-handed pitching since the beginning of last year. In that time, Harvey has allowed a .202 ISO to RHB.
Other options – Trea Turner, Francisco Lindor, Jorge Polanco
Paul DeJong, STL ($3200)
I think you have to try and pay up at SS in cash today (anyone above will do), but if you absolutely can’t, DeJong is viable. He’s cold lately with a 12.9% HHR over his last 15 games, but he’s a career reverse split hitter which hasn’t changed lately (.206 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year).
Other options – Marcus Semien, Dansby Swanson
Nelson Cruz/Max Kepler, MIN ($3800/$3600)
Let’s talk about the Twins now, who actually carry the highest IRT on the slate at 5.6 runs. Both their top outfield hitters are terrific values at under 4k, and I would make an effort to get at least one of them in there tonight. Mike Fiers has definitely lessened the homers allowed this year (1.18 HR/9 this year as opposed to 1.77 HR/9 the two years before), but he’s still got a 5.38 xFIP and only a 15.8% K rate. Cruz has been the hotter bat with a 43.5% HHR over his last 15 and he has a .259 ISO against RHP since last year. Kepler has been a bit colder, but he’s got a .363 wOBA and .251 ISO against RHP since last year. Both are solid options.
Other options – Juan Soto, Christian Yelich, Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, George Springer, Mike Trout, Eddie Rosario, Ronald Acuna, Nick Senzel
Tyler O’Neill, STL ($2500)
O’Neill will be quite popular today given his recent streak and the fact that his price really hasn’t risen. Over his past five games, O’Neill has ten hits, four homers, and 11 RBI with a 47% HHR, and the streak extends past that as he has a 40% HHR over his last 15 with seven multi-hit games in that span. Just eat the massive chalk here, as he fits Bauer builds perfectly.
Other options – Yasiel Puig, Jesse Winker, Jose Martinez, Dexter Fowler, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Oscar Mercado, Jarrod Dyson, Marwin GonzalezFantasy Baseball