It’s been tough sailing with the Rockies not living up to expectations, but thankfully a good deal of FTA’s other plays have been on fire (Soto, Joc, Mercado, Adams all came through last night in addition to Jack Flaherty who was our SP of choice). We finally don’t have to deal with Coors on the main slate but if you’re playing early, go right back to them as the O/U is once again at 14 runs. Check into FTA+ chat this evening with us, as our top-notch analysts will be out in full force for the nine-game main card.
Mike Clevinger, CLE ($9400)
Even though we have a ton of offense on this slate, it’s going to be hard getting away from Clevinger in cash. He was pitching like an ace before a long IL stint, and has come back with a bang lately, posting a 36.6% K rate and 4.9% BB rate over his last two starts. Tonight he gets the dream matchup against the Tigers who rank last in both wOBA and wRC+ against RHP. Clevinger has pitched to an elite 16.4% swinging strike rate this year and is a -240 favorite with a 3.2 IRTA (both slate extremes). There IS a cheaper option, but I think we have to take Clev’s safety tonight in cash.
Other options – Gerrit Cole, Robbie Ray, Domingo German
Trevor Richards, MIA ($7300)
I don’t think this play is quite safe enough for cash, which is really pushing me towards Clevinger. However, Richards will be a GPP fixture for me, and I’ll stamp my cash approval for those who like a little more risk. Richards has had his struggles this year (5.15 SIERA, 10.6% BB rate), but he’s got a terrific matchup against San Diego who strikes out the most in the league against RHP (26%). We saw a lot of offensive fireworks from BOTH sides in Miami last night, but the park generally plays as one of the more pitcher-friendly atmospheres in baseball.
Other options – Chris Paddack, Eduardo Rodriguez, Kenta Maeda, Erick Fedde
Gary Sanchez, NYY ($3700)
Sanchez is a fine option where his price has depressed a bit on FD. Yonny Chirinos has really been a solid pitcher for TB this year, but it hasn’t stopped him from allowing 1.62 HR/9 to same-handed hitters. Pitching in Yankee Stadium is a big time park downgrade for Yonny and Sanchez has a .273 ISO against RHP since last year. The Yanks are carrying a 5.5 IRT into this one and the weather is getting oppressively hot in NY.
Other options – Luke Voit, Edwin Encarnacion, Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana, Jose Abreu
Joc Pederson, LAD ($2800)
First base is a great spot for value on FD again, as they don’t seem to have the pricing down for Joc. He’s only increased another $100 and projects as a top value once again. Joc has homered in back to back games now in Philly, and he gets another great one against Nick Pivetta who has given up 1.93 HR/9 to LHB since last year. In that span, Joc has a .293 ISO against RHP and the Dodgers once again have an IRT pushing six runs.
Other options – Ryan Zimmerman, Matt Adams, Christian Walker, Kevin Cron, Lucas Duda
Catcher values – James McCann, JT Realmuto, Yan Gomes
Max Muncy, LAD ($3900)
Muncy is another Dodgers I’ve been on this whole series and he’s also not disappointed, homering in back to back games as well. Muncy now has 60 homers since the beginning of last year, of which only Yelich and Trout have more, and he has a .294 ISO in that span to back it up. We probably have a punt play tonight at second (see below), but Muncy is still worthy of being in any format.
Other options – Eduardo Escobar, Jose Altuve
Nicky Lopez, KC ($2100)
Adalberto Mondesi got hurt yesterday and is headed for an MRI on his shoulder today. Even if he avoids the IL, I assume he’ll be out tonight. If that happens it’s likely we see Lopez take his number two spot in the order. Lopez is not the best hitter, but Ivan Nova is also not the best pitcher, and the Royals have an IRT of 5.5 runs as a result. For $2100, he’s pretty much a free square, and you can still play Muncy in the UTIL spot if you’re bent on having him.
Other options – Brian Dozier, Jason Kipnis, Brock Holt
Rafael Devers, BOS ($4200)
Yesterday, it killed me to not write up Anthony Rendon given how much I loved him, but Arenado had to be the one. Today is the same thing. I’m bonkers over Rendon, but I have to call him the 1A to Devers. The young Boston slugger is making a real case for himself as one of the better hitters in baseball, and he’s crushed RHP for a .384 wOBA, .256 ISO, and 40.5% HHR this season. He’s facing Aaron Sanchez who has the second worst SIERA of any qualified pitcher in the majors, and he’s struck out under 12% of LHB this season. The Red Sox have an IRT of 6.6 runs, and honestly I think Devers is the best play on their team tonight.
Other options – Anthony Rendon, DJ LeMahieu, Jose Ramirez
Justin Turner, LAD ($3300)
When Nick Pivetta goes wrong, it’s via the long ball, and he really doesn’t discriminate against handedness. Turner is another underpriced Dodger, and he has a history of hitting in the reverse split (.360 wOBA, .191 ISO against RHP since last year). If you don’t want to spend all the way in cash at this position, Turner is more than viable.
Other options – Vladimir Guerrero, Jake Lamb, Logan Forsythe
Trea Turner, WAS ($3900)
Turner is not only the top play at a loaded SS position, but also the top per-dollar play as well. He shouldn’t be under 4k given his unique blend of power and speed, and Washington once again has an IRT of 6.4 runs against the worst pitching staff in baseball (Baltimore). The Orioles also rank 28th in wSB- rating, which should be music to Turner’s ears (and legs).
Other options – Xander Bogaerts, Alex Bregman, Francisco Lindor
Jonathan Villar, BAL ($2900)
I’d commit the money to Turner since he’s too cheap at $3900, but Villar is absolutely a nice discount as well. He’s back to leading off for the Orioles every day now and Baltimore has an IRT of 4.8 runs despite being one of the worst offenses in the league. Erick Fedded has a 5.75 SIERA and a 12% K rate against an 11.6% BB rate, making Baltimore fully stackable tonight. Villar himself has a 0.051 SB/PA which is second only to Trea Turner.
Other options – Corey Seager, Didi Gregorius, Leury Garcia
Juan Soto, WAS ($4000)
Soto didn’t let me down yesterday, so I’m going right back to well tonight (plus he’s $100 less than he was yesterday). The young Washington phenom has been a beast with a .387 wOBA and .243 ISO against RHP in his young career, and he a full nine innings of upside against Baltimore who ranks last in FIP, SIERA, and ISO allowed. Soto is also hot with a 47% HHR over his last 15 games. I love Cody Bellinger, but the $800 discount makes this a pretty easy call if I can only have one.
Other options – Cody Bellinger, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Aaron Judge, Whit Merrifield, Ketel Marte, George Springer, Joey Gallo, Austin Meadows, Bryce Harper
Adam Eaton, WAS ($2900)
Eaton’s .144 ISO against RHP carries the lowest upside of any of the big time WAS bats, but that price tag is far to cheap for someone who will hit between Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon (and carries speed upside himself). Eaton has four multi-hit games and two SBs in his last seven, and has an incredible floor for someone with a sub-3k tag.
Other options – Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley, Jorge Soler, Alex Gordon, Jarrod Dyson, Alex Verdugo, AJ Pollock, Kevin Kiermaier, Adam Jones, Delino DeShieldsFantasy Baseball