FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 7/16/19


Last night I hit big on FD because I had Junis, Joc, Muncy, and Mercado. The problem? My Story/Blackmon/Dahl trio COMBINED for six points, so it could’ve been so much more if Coors hit. Oh well, wins are wins. Tonight we’ll be looking for another Junis, because the offense is absolutely off the charts. We have two teams with IRTs over seven, one over 6.5, two more over six, and eight additional squads over five (and that’s not even accounting for teams that don’t have totals yet (the Yankees, Cubs, and Twins should almost certainly pass five as well). I’ll be back in FTA+ chat tonight as we deal with the nonsense, so make sure you sign up @FanTeamAdvice and start winning today! I’m on twitter @jac3600.

STARTING PITCHER

TOP PLAY

Brandon Woodruff, MIL ($9600)

Woodruff has been a revelation this season, but he doesn’t remotely fit the cash build where we’re trying to cram in as much offense as possible. I love Woodruff in GPPs, however, as he has a 3.52 SIERA along with a slate-high 28% K rate. The Braves are a talented offense, but it’s a mark of how much Vegas appreciates Woodruff that Atlanta only has an IRT of 4.2 runs in a positive hitting environment. Find room in your GPPs.

Other options – Walker Buehler, Lance Lynn

VALUE PLAY

Jack Flaherty, STL ($7700)

Truth be told, I’d leave to even go cheaper if the opportunity arises, but Flaherty looks fine as a cash play right now. He is one of two pitchers tonight with an IRTA under four runs, and is a -180 favorite against the Pirates who Miles Mikolas handled pretty easily yesterday. Flaherty has been super inconsistent this year thanks largely to a 40% HHR allowed, but there’s nothing wrong with his velocity and he has an elite 12.6% swinging strike rate. Trust me, you need to save at SP today.

Other options – Jordan Yamamoto, Zack Plesac, Collin McHugh (may take over as the cheap cash SP if Trout sits again), Anthony DeSclafani, Austin Voth

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

Brandon Belt, SF ($4000)

The Giants are currently sitting with an IRT of an even seven runs. This is significant considering they rank near the bottom of the league in both wOBA and wRC+ against RHP, and are last in ISO. Peter Lambert is not MLB ready at all, let alone Coors ready, and the Giants were up to the task yesterday (at least in the early game). Lambert has a 4.97 SIERA this year along with a putrid 6.9% swinging strike rate and a 42.3% HHR allowed. Belt still hits righties well, with a .211 ISO against them since last year.

Other options – Anthony Rizzo, Carlos Santana, Pete Alonso, Freddie Freeman, Jose Abreu, Gary Sanchez

VALUE PLAY

Matt Adams, WAS ($2700)

First off, I need to point out that Joc Pederson is once again mispriced at $2700, and my early builds will push me to BOTH him and Adams in cash. For the purpose of the article though, I have to pick one, and Adams is not only part of the better context but is also much hotter (50% L15 HHR is one of the highest on the slate). He’ll get the pleasure of taking on the Baltimore pitching staff who is last in SIERA and ISO allowed, and Adams has a .263 ISO against RHP since last year.

Other options – Joc Pederson (also elite value), Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto, Ryan Zimmerman

Catcher values – Buster Posey, Yasmani Grandal, Chris Iannetta, Mitch Garver, Roberto Perez, Yan Gomes

SECOND BASE

TOP PLAY

Max Muncy, LAD ($3800)

Muncy came up big for me yesterday as the Rockies bats crapped out, and I have no problem going right back to him batting fifth for the Dodgers. They have an IRT of 5.5 runs tonight in Philly, and Vince Velasquez has allowed a 45% HHR this year, along with 1.67 HR/9 to LHB the past three. Muncy has 58 homers since last year along with a .292 ISO, and walks at an elite rate, with a 14.4% BB rate over his career.

Other options – Jose Altuve, Eduardo Escobar, Cavan Biggio

VALUE PLAY

Brian Dozier, WAS ($2600)

You need Nationals exposure, even if it has to come in the form of Dozier who generally bats seventh. He’s come back from nothingness to put up a solid season for the Nats, and he even has a .215 ISO against same-handed pitching this year. He’s almost minimum price exposure to a team with an IRT of 6.7 runs.

Other options – Scooter Gennett, Joe Panik, Jason Kipnis, Jonathan Schoop, Nicky Lopez

THIRD BASE

TOP PLAY

Nolan Arenado, COL ($4600)

I must admit, I almost put Rendon here. That’s how much I like Washington tonight, to get to a point where I would ALMOST say no to Arenado against a subpar lefty in Coors. Arenado is just a different specimen in Coors, and this year is no different with a .313 ISO against LHP along with almost a 1.200 ISO. I know the Rockies disappointed in both games yesterday, but they don’t have a 7.4 IRT for nothing.

Other options – Anthony Rendon, Rafael Devers, Mike Moustakas, Kris Bryant, Yoan Moncada, Jose Ramirez

VALUE PLAY

Pablo Sandoval, SF ($2900)

OK, he won’t be my coverboy today, but the Panda is still very much in play in all formats. He hit third yesterday for the Giants, and with Evan Longoria on the IL there’s almost no chance Sandoval won’t be in there again. Attacking Peter Lambert from all sides is a great strategy, and as I mentioned yesterday, Sandoval is rocking an amazing .269 ISO this year.

Other options – Eugenio Suarez, Justin Turner, Vlad Guerrero, Tommy Edman

SHORTSTOP

Trea Turner, WAS ($3800)

Unlike the Arenado-Rendon debate, I have no issue at all siding with Trea Turner over Story here given the fact that Turner is $900 cheaper. His L15 HHR is 24% which pales to Story’s 40% mark, but Turner will lead off in Baltimore against Asher Wojchichowski (I don’t care if I spelled that wrong) who has an 11.6% BB rate and only a 34% GB rate. Baltimore also ranks 28th in wSB- rating, so Turner could run wild in this one. He’s a lock at under 4k.

Other options – Trevor Story, Alex Bregman, Francisco Lindor, Xander Bogaerts, Elvis Andrus

VALUE PLAY

Brandon Crawford, SF ($3200)

Crawford clearly wants to stay in Coors, as he went 6 for 9 yesterday with three homers and nine RBI in the doubleheader. That doesn’t mean he’ll succeed again today, but he’s honestly got an even better matchup today against Lambert, and Crawford is rocking a 44.4% HHR over the last 15 games. He also hit fifth yesterday which is big.

Other options – Corey Seager, Jonathan Villar, Marcus Semien, Paul DeJong

OUTFIELD

TOP PLAY

Juan Soto, WAS ($4100)

Soto is another Washington bat I don’t think I can live without tonight. He’s been crushing the ball lately with a 46.4% HHR over his last 15, and he has a .405 wOBA and 41.9% HHR against RHP this season. Asher…W…has been pretty good against righties thus far, but lefties have lit him up for a .387 wOBA and 1.69 HR/9. Soto should be $500 more in this one.

Other options – Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl, Ian Desmond, Alex Dickerson, Cody Bellinger, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Christian Yelich, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Schwarber, George Springer, Joey Gallo, Aaron Judge

VALUE PLAY

Oscar Mercado/Jordan Luplow, CLE ($2700/$2600)

I expect these two will carry nice ownership at their prices (especially Mercado who went nuts yesterday). There’s nothing wrong with playing the chalk, though, especially when it comes in the form of Indians who we haven’t really touched on yet. Cleveland is matching Washington with a 6.7 IRT, and they’ll face Ryan Carpenter of the 8.36 ERA, 5.48 SIERA, 14% K rate, and 44% HHR allowed. His outing should be short, but the DET bullpen is also ranked 28th in SIERA and are awful outside of Shane Greene (who shouldn’t see the game with a positive game script).

Other options – Adam Eaton, Khris Davis, Mike Yastremski, Kevin Pillar , Andrew Benintendi, Yasiel Puig, Jesse Winker, Shin Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Delino DeShields, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Eloy Jimenez, Tyler O’Neill, Jose Martinez

Fantasy Baseball