FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 7/15/19


Today starts a new week, and we have an 11-game Monday slate highlighted by a Rockies squad that currently has an IRT of EIGHT RUNS! We’re going to HAVE to get exposure that game, so we’ll squeeze every drop of value we can out of the SP position, and hope some teams do us a favor with cheap plays. Join the team in FTA chat later today and find the best ways to build cash and GPPs. I’m also on twitter @jac3600.

STARTING PITCHER

TOP PLAY

James Paxton, NYY ($9000)

Paxton looks like the best combination of price, talent, and matchup, and his 9k price tag is not prohibitive to get Coors bats in. Paxton has (predictably) taken a step back in the run prevention department (pitching in Yankee Stadium instead of Seattle will do that, but he’s still striking out batters at an elite level (28.9% K rate with a 13.9% swinging strike rate). Paxton is fresh off a start where he rung up 11 of these same Rays, and Tampa is tied for second in the league for the highest K rate against LHP (26%). Paxton is great in both cash and GPPs.

Other options – Clayton Kershaw, Luis Castillo, Blake Snell, Lucas Giolito

VALUE PLAY

Jake Junis, KC ($6800)

If you want to FULLY unlock the power of Coors, you’ll have to sacrifice some safety at SP, which is where Junis comes into play. He’s not a great pitcher, with a 4.66 SIERA and a 41.6% HHR allowed, but this is more about the price and matchup combination. The White Sox strike out 25.5% of the time against RHP which is the third highest in the league, and it also helps on FD that Junis has gone six innings or more in seven of his last ten starts. Chicago has an IRT of 4.4 runs, which is low for a team in July not facing an ace.

Other options – Joe Musgrove, Rick Porcello, Miles Mikolas

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

TOP PLAY

Brandon Belt, SF ($3700)

I have Belt slightly edging out Daniel Murphy for a better context and a price tag that is $400 cheaper. Belt is likely the leadoff hitter on the road in Coors, and that automatically boosts a hitter significantly. He’ll be facing Chi Chi Gonzalez on the mound, and Chi Chi has a career 14.3% BB rate alongside an equal 14.3% K rate (which is horrid). Belt is a bit of a disappointment overall, but he has a .211 ISO against RHP since last year and the Giants have an IRT of 6.5 runs (second on the slate).

Other options – Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rizzo, Freddie Freeman, Carlos Santana, Gary Sanchez

VALUE PLAY

Joc Pederson, LAD ($2600)

After a first two months, Joc had over a 1.000 OPS with 17 homers, but has only three homers and a .598 OPS since June 1. This is, of course, worrisome, but look at that price tag! The Dodgers are an offense that rocks RHP, and Zack Eflin has allowed 1.45 HR/9 to LHB since 2017. We need Joc to continue to lead off to see him hold his value, but if he does I would lock him into cash despite his recent struggles.

Other options – Joey Votto, Michael Chavis, Miguel Cabrera

Catcher values – Buster Posey, Yasmani Grandal, Travis d’Arnaud, Tony Wolters, Roberto Perez

SECOND BASE

TOP PLAY

Max Muncy, LAD ($3800)

I’m heavily on the Dodgers as secondary options off of Coors, but I’m also not willing to invest big money in anyone but that game in cash. This makes Muncy an elite GPP play against Eflin and company. I still don’t think people realize how good he’s been, with 58 homers since last along with a .292 ISO. Muncy also walks at an elite rate, with a 14.4% BB rate over his career, and the Dodgers are getting a park upgrade.

Other options – Jose Altuve, Cavan Biggio

VALUE PLAY

Ryan McMahon, COL ($3300)

McMahon hits seventh, but there’s a chance we see him get a lineup boost if the Rockies play around with their lineup in the second game of the DH. Any Rockies are in play with an IRT of eight runs, and McMahon has a 39.1% HHR over the last 15 games. I’d still like to go even cheaper in cash to help you reach the big dogs for Colorado, but McMahon is fine for now.

Other options – Joe Panik, Jason Kipnis, Scooter Gennett, Brock Holt

THIRD BASE

TOP PLAY

Nolan Arenado, COL ($4700)

Duh. There is nothing about Dereck Rodriguez’s game that suggest the Rockies won’t obliterate him tonight. The young Giants righty has a 5.45 SIERA and a 14.5% K rate since last year, and has allowed a 45.4% HHR since then. Arenado has an OPS just south of 1.200 at home since 2017, and is a top play in all formats.

Other options – Rafael Devers, Kris Bryant, Josh Donaldson, Yoan Moncada

VALUE PLAY

Pablo Sandoval, SF ($2900)

What year is it?? I don’t think I’ve written about this guy since…maybe his first month on Boston?? Anyway, he somehow has survived the price hike that some of his teammates underwent in Coors, and the Panda should hit third or fourth in Coors, which makes his price tag too cheap no matter what. Pablo has experienced a bit of a renaissance this year with a career best .269 ISO, and his K risks should be mitigated by a pitcher that does not miss bats at all. You can still play Arenado in the UTIL spot if you want, but I think Sandoval is a pivotal part of cash games.

Other options – Jose Ramirez, Justin Turner, Vladimir Guerrero

SHORTSTOP

TOP PLAY

Trevor Story, COL ($4600)

The Rockies onslaught continues, and you’ll see it in the outfield as well. Story gets the same matchup, and he’s actually outperformed Arenado in the reverse split since last season, with a .350 wOBA and .253 ISO against RHP. He also runs, making him an elite commodity in all formats tonight.

Other options – Xander Bogaerts, Alex Bregman, Javier Baez, Francisco Lindor

VALUE PLAY

Corey Seager, LAD ($3100)

Seager’s batting order spot is key here. We’ve seen him leadoff recently, even against a lefty, so Dave Roberts could be a wild card in helping us with our cheap plays tonight. Seager gets the same matchup against Eflin we’ve already touched on, and he has a .206 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last season.

Other options – Brandon Crawford, Paul DeJong, Leury Garcia

OUTFIELD

TOP PLAY

Charlie Blackmon/David Dahl, COL ($4800/$4200)

One of these is a must in cash, and both would be ideal. They should hit first and third in this one unless the doubleheader lineups say something different, and both are elite platoon hitters. Blackmon has a .388 wOBA and .274 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year, and Dahl has a .356 wOBA and .242 ISO in that span. Both have 15-day HHR’s in the upper 20s, and the Giants bullpen isn’t good either (outside of Will Smith).

Other options – Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Mike Trout, Cody Bellinger, Ronald Acuna, Christian Yelich, George Springer, Aaron Judge, Alex Dickerson, Kyle Schwarber

VALUE PLAY

Jordan Luplow, CLE ($2500)

We haven’t touched on the Indians at all yet, but they are coming in as the top “non-Coors” team with an IRT of 6.2 runs. Luplow generally hits cleanup against lefties, which makes him an incredible value at $2500. He has absolutely brutalized LHP this season with a .450 wOBA and 1.108 OPS, and Daniel Norris has allowed a 37.8% HHR with only an 18% K rate this season. The Detroit bullpen is also 28th in SIERA.

Other options – Ian Desmond, Mike Yasztremski, Kevin Pillar, Andrew Benintendi, Oscar Mercado, Nick Castellanos, Christin Stewart, Victor Reyes, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Jesse Winker

Fantasy Baseball