My five-game winning streak on DraftKings ended last night, but the late push to get up to Bumgarner on FD got me well into the money there. Today we have a completely even slate, with six games at 4 PM EST and six more on the main slate at 7:15. This article will deal with the later games, but I’ll be in chat helping out around 3:00 for anyone playing the early card (where there’s better pitching). We do have Coors again on the late slate, and they disappoint last night. Be sure to follow me on twitter @jac3600.
TOP PLAY AND TOP VALUE
Kyle Hendricks, CHC ($7500)
It’s not often that I pigeon-hole the pitcher position like this, but Hendricks is a lock for cash on the FD slate. There are no aces, so you don’t have to worry about opportunity cost, and his price is great for getting in the Rockies bats once again. Hendricks is having his worst season with a 4.55 FIP and 18.4% K rate, but the velocity is slowly increasing and his matchup can’t get any better. The Padres are now dead last in wRC+ against RHP with the third highest K rate against, and they have an IRT of only 3.4 runs. I would prioritize offense, and lock in the price tag of Hendricks in cash.
Other options – Mike Clevinger, Alex Wood, Andrew Heaney, Jon Gray, Jeff Samardzija
Ian Desmond, COL ($3900)
Prepare for a lot of Rockies again in this article. Desmond should bump up to fifth in the order against a lefty, and he has almost a 30% HHR the last 15 games. The Rockies have an IRT of 5.8 runs which is the highest on the slate, and Wade LeBlanc has given up a .192 ISO to RHB over the past two years with a low K rate against.
Other options – Edwin Encarnacion, Anthony Rizzo
Greg Bird, NYY ($3200)
Bird has one of the more difficult matchups against Mike Clevinger, but he’s been killing the ball lately with a 41% HHR the last ten games. His lineup spot remains a big question mark, but he has a .206 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year, and Clevinger has allowed a .170 ISO to LHB in that span.
Other options – Matt Olson, Ryon Healy, Eric Hosmer
Catcher values – Chris Iannetta, Buster Posey
D.J. LeMahieu, COL ($3900)
As I’ve mentioned ad nauseum, D.J. lacks the power upside of his teammates, but he’s still the leadoff hitter for the team with the highest IRT and he’ll have the platoon edge. LeMahieu has been terrific against LHP lately, with a .395 wOBA and .182 ISO over the last two years. He’s an easy spend in cash, and one I would make.
Other options – Dee Gordon
Jonathan Schoop, BAL ($3000)
Schoop is also a great value, and you could potentially use him in the UTIL spot if you’re all about stacking Rockies in cash. Schoop has finally turned it on with a 32% HHR over the last 15 games, and he’s been hitting second as a result. Schoop had a .390 wOBA and .299 ISO against LHP a season ago, and faces Martin Perez who has allowed a 36% HHR to RHB since the beginning of last year. Baltimore comes in with a solid IRT of 5.1 runs.
Other options – Rougned Odor, Logan Forsythe, Neil Walker
Nolan Arenado, COL ($4600)
Arenado has a .457 wOBA and .344 ISO against LHP over the past two seasons, along with a .390 ISO at home in that span. He’s facing a lefty that doesn’t miss bats and struggles with power. Play him.
Other options – Jose Ramirez, Kris Bryant, Kyle Seager
Tim Beckham, BAL ($2500)
3B is another position you could double up the position with the UTIL spot. Beckham has entrenched himself as the leadoff hitter for the Orioles, and he could get five PAs for a team with an IRT over five runs. He’s not a “blow-the-roof-off” hitter, but he’s still posted a .173 ISO against LHP over the past two years. His price tag is tough to ignore.
Other options – Justin Turner, Jurickson Profar, Adrian Beltre
Trevor Story, COL ($4300)
Story hit a very chalky homer yesterday, and expect heavy ownership again as he once again faces a pitcher that doesn’t have a high K rate. Arenado always takes center stage for the team when facing a lefty (rightfully so), but Story has been a superstar as well, posting a .413 wOBA and .312 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year. He has competition at the position (unlike Arenado), but he’s absolutely the top play and viable across all formats.
Other options – Francisco Lindor, Manny Machado, Didi Gregorius, Jean Segura
Charlie Blackmon, COL ($4000)
Blackmon is in a L/L matchup which might make him the lowest owned of the big Rockies names, but he’s no less of an elite play. From 2012-2016, Wade LeBlanc allowed a .392 wOBA and 1.44 HR/9 to same-handed hitters, so the reverse-split tendencies are there. Furthermore, Blackmon has been fine against LHP over the past two years with a .378 wOBA and .167 ISO against them, and he’s about 1k too cheap for his skillset in Coors Field.
Other options – Mike Trout, Justin Upton, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner, Mitch Haniger, Michael Brantley
Shin Soo Choo, TEX ($3300)
Choo remains massively underpriced on FD and must be locked into cash games. Yefry Ramirez projects to allow 1.93 HR/9 for the rest of the season according to ZiPS based on his massive FB rates in AAA, and Choo is currently on a streak where he’s reached base in 49 consecutive games. Choo has a massive 44% HHR over the last 15 games, and when you compare his price tag to the one that’s $5100 on DK, it seems like FD made a mistake.
Other options – Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo, Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones, Danny Valencia, Trey Mancini, Andrew McCutchen, Denard Span, Ben Gamel, Ben Zobrist, Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward, Matt Kemp, Kike Hernandez