FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 7/13/19


I won big on DK, but not having Trout on FD wound up costing me a huge night there. Honestly, though, it couldn’t have gotten more amazing in Anaheim last night (if you haven’t seen the highlights do so). By the way, our own @AlexBlickle1 was heavily touting Felix Pena in GPPs, so come aboard and see what we’re all about in FTA chat. Tonight may beone of the hardest slates of the year, as opportunity cost is sky high at SP but we have an outlier Coors game with a whopping O/U of 14 runs which we almost never see. I’m on twitter for all your needs at @jac3600, and see you tonight.

STARTING PITCHER

TOP PLAY

Chris Sale, BOS ($10,700)

I’m curious how many will shy away from Sale today given the matchup against the Dodgers. I get it – his 4.05 ERA and 2.19 BB/9 are both career worsts, but Sale is still pitching at an elite level with a 3.03 SIERA (which is fifth in the majors among all qualified starters) and a 34.5% K rate. The Dodgers are not the ideal matchup as they rank ninth in wOBA against LHP, but Sale is a -180 favorite with an IRTA under four runs, and he’s discounted to where he should be.

Other options – Charlie Morton, Patrick Corbin, Trevor Bauer, Matthew Boyd, Aaron Nola

VALUE PLAY

Julio Teheran, ATL ($8000)

People are going to be searching in this mid-tier for any cheaper way of loading up on Coors bats, but I just can’t recommend it in cash. I do love Teheran for GPPs, however. He has not been good, pitching to a 5.20 SIERA and allowing a 40.8% HHR, but he’s getting a major park upgrade in San Diego and the Padres have struck out the most in the league against RHP with a 26.2% K rate. Teheran does have three quality starts in his last six, although granted two of them were against the Marlins.

Other options – Jake Odorizzi, Joey Lucchesi, Wade Miley, Zack Davies

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

TOP PLAY

Daniel Murphy, COL ($3700)

As I mentioned in the opening, prepare to see a lot of Rockies and Reds in this article due to the game O/U of 14 runs. The Rockies are leading the charge with an IRT of 7.4 runs, and the lefties in particular are the top options against Tanner Roark who has allowed a .388 wOBA and 2.11 HR/9 to LHB this season. Murphy will hit fifth and has a .365 wOBA and .214 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year.

Other options – Joey Votto, Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana, Daniel Vogelbach

VALUE PLAY

Travis d’Arnaud, TB ($2900)

Yesterday I made some solid GPP money with the Rays stacks in GPPs, and there’s no reason not to go back to them again after they hung 16 runs on the Orioles pitching staff. Furthermore, a play like d’Arnaud is a solid path to freeing up salary to get as many Coors bats as possible with an expensive SP. He’s been leading off against lefties lately, and has posted a 41% HHR over his last 15 games. John Means has been the O’s best pitcher, but his xFIP is almost two runs higher than his ERA and he’s backed by the worst bullpen in baseball by a lot.

Other options – Brandon Belt, Paul Goldschmidt, Eric Hosmer, Matt Adams

Catcher values – Yasmani Grandal, Curt Casali, Tony Wolters, Robinson Chirinos

SECOND BASE

TOP PLAY

Jose Altuve, HOU ($3600)

We’ll deviate a bit from Coors here to bring you Altuve. Mike Minor is still defying all odds of his 2.54 ERA with a 4.41 SIERA. Yes I know the regression I’ve touted for two months hasn’t really shown itself yet, but I’m going to keep on it till it does. Altuve has killed LHP for his whole career, and his first half was EXTREMELY unlucky with a BABIP 63 points below his career rate. Fortunately there’s a punt play for cash, but Altuve needs to be in many GPP lineups.

Other options – Eduardo Escobar

VALUE PLAY

David Fletcher, LAA ($2600)

Fletcher isn’t the greatest hitter overall, but this is an easy one for this slate. Fletcher has been leading off for the Angels and has three straight multi-hit games. No Mariners pitcher has been announced yet, but the Angels are currently sporting a 5.3 IRT which is unlikely to change all that much. He fits everything you want to do on this slate.

Other options – Scooter Gennett (sigh), Ryan McMahon, Jason Kipnis, Michael Brosseau

THIRD BASE

TOP PLAY

Eugenio Suarez, CIN ($4000)

Fading Suarez does not seem wise on this slate, and the fact that he’s $500 cheaper than Arenado should make him mega chalk (and also make Arenado a lot more appealing in GPPs). Kyle Freeland was supposedly good in his rehab starts but he’s been flat out horrid this season, posting a 6.42 FIP and allowing 2.43 HR/9. Suarez was on a tear before the break with a 44% L15 HHR, and he has a .384 wOBA and .275 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year. He’s in your cash lineup no matter who the SP is.

Other options – Nolan Arenado, Rafael Devers, Yuli Gurriel

VALUE PLAY

Yandy Diaz, TB ($3300)

Any deviations off the Coors game should look to the Rays in my opinion. They have an IRT hovering around five and a ton of lefty killers in the active lineup. The O’s collectively have the second lowest K rate in the majors, and Diaz has a 33.3% HHR over his last 15 games with a .385 wOBA against LHP.

Other options – Jose Ramirez, Josh Donaldson, Justin Turner, Tommy Edman

SHORTSTOP

TOP PLAY

Trevor Story, COL ($4500)

Tanner Roark has been much better against righties than lefties this year, but that shouldn’t scare you off the likes of Story (or Arenado). The slugging SS has posted a .350 wOBA and .253 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year, and he’s put up a 40% HHR since his activation off the IL. Story is worthy of his price tag in any format and is one of the top overall plays of the night.

Other options – Alex Bregman (DTD), Fernando Tatis, Francisco Lindor, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner

VALUE PLAY

Jose Iglesias, CIN ($3000)

This pick is entirely dependent on Iglesias’ lineup spot, but we’ve seen him get as high as fifth against a lefty, and he’d make a fine value if he were there tonight. He’s not a good hitter but anyone gets a bump in Coors Field, and Iglesias can run, putting up a 0.018 SB/PA since the beginning of last year.

Other options – Paul DeJong, JP Crawford, Willy Adames

OUTFIELD

TOP PLAY

Charlie Blackmon/David Dahl, COL ($4600/$3900)

This is tough. The Reds OFs are right there with these guys at the top, and we also have to remember Mike Trout exists too (something he constantly reminds us on a daily basis). Blackmon and Dahl will hit first and third, respectively, against Tanner Roark whose ineffectiveness against lefties we’ve already covered, and Blackmon has a .274 ISO against RHP since last year (Dahl has a .242). One of them is a must in cash.

Other options – Mike Trout, Nick Senzel, Yasiel Puig, George Springer, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Ronald Acuna, Tommy Pham, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton, Juan Soto, Tommy Pham

VALUE PLAY

Lorenzo Cain/Ryan Braun, MIL ($3100/$3000)

Tread carefully around the Brewers because Madison Bumgarner is still a good pitcher, but this is definitely the worst year we’ve seen from him. MadBum has allowed a whopping 45.5% HHR with only a 35.6% GB rate, and Cain and Braun both have an OPS over 100 points higher against LHP for their careers. Both are very cheap which helps on this slate, and Braun in particular still has a .352 wOBA and .228 ISO against LHP since last year.

Other options – Avisail Garcia, Ian Desmond, Mallex Smith, Hunter Renfroe, Wil Myers, Philip Ervin, Delino DeShields, Nick Castellanos, Christin Stewart, Tyler O’Neill

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