Happy Friday the 13th! Our whole world goes through Coors Field this evening, as two lousy pitchers will be squaring off which has led to an O/U of 12 runs. Pitching is a mess, but we’re all in the same boat, and our FTA+ subs will get the edge as we help out in chat later. You can also follow me on twitter @jac3600, and check out my #SFB8 team which is now 14 rounds in.
Madison Bumgarner, SF ($9400)
Bumgarner is technically the “safest” option in the vast pool of SPs, but he’s still not the ace we’ve seen in his career with a 38% HHR allowed. The A’s rank ninth in wRC+ against LHP but they’re losing the DH going to San Francisco. You could fit a Coors bat or two with Bumgarner if you’re totally uncomfortable with the cheaper options, but I’d rather take the same risk everyone else will have an rock multiple big bats from the premier offense.
Other options – Noah Syndergaard, Rick Porcello, Dallas Keuchel
Walker Buehler, LAD ($7800)
As of right now, Buehler is the guy I want in cash even though he comes with some length risk. The only appearance he’s had this month is a relief appearance where he got destroyed, but supposedly he’s ready to rock after a positive simulated game he recently threw. The Angels are losing the DH playing in an NL park, and they have a 3.6 IRT which is the lowest on this slate. There are other options if you’re afraid of a quick hook to Buehler, but he’s too talented to be this cheap.
Other options – Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Kingham, Cole Hamels, Domingo German, Shane Bieber, Tanner Roark, Tyler Chatwood
Ian Desmond, COL ($3800)
The Rockies are going to dominate the top plays today as they have an incredible 6.6 IRT which is by far the highest on the slate. Desmond doesn’t get the best lineup spots against righties but it’s laughable how bad Christian Bergman is. He’s allowed a career .406 wOBA and 1.99 HR/9 to RHB with only an 11% K rate against them, and you’re going to want multiple Rockies big bats in there. I would pass on Desmond in cash in favor of the more obvious choices, but he’s great in GPP stacks.
Other options – Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman, Cody Bellinger, Joey Votto
Lucas Duda, KC ($2400)
Duda is a great value play to enable you to get up to Arenado, Story, Blackmon, etc. Duda and the rest of the Royals are getting a great park shift going to Chicago, and Duda has a .261 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. Opposing pitcher James Shields has allowed a .213 ISO to LHB in that span, and he’s once against stinking it up with a 5.09 xFIP this year.
Other options – Steve Pearce, Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Santana, Yonder Alonso, Jose Abreu, Eric Hosmer
Catcher values – Tony Wolters, Salvador Perez, Evan Gattis, Buster Posey, Robinson Chirinos
D.J. LeMahieu, COL ($3900)
More Rockies. D.J. does not have near the power upside of his teammates, but he’s leading off for a team with an IRT that will push seven runs. The R/R matchup is elite for all the Rockies, and LeMahieu’s prospect of hits and runs make him a phenomenal cash play.
Other options – Jose Altuve, Ozzie Albies, Brian Dozier, Dee Gordon
Jonathan Schoop, BAL ($3300)
Schoop has a 29% HHR the last 15 games and it’s started to earn him better lineup spots once again (he hit second yesterday against a fairly tough righty in Nick Pivetta). If Schoop is there again he’s a fine value against Cole Hamels who has been getting lit up as of late. Schoop is fresh off a year where he posted a .390 wOBA and .299 ISO against LHP, and is hitting in a fantastic environment.
Other options – Yoan Moncada, Whit Merrifield, Rougned Odor, Asdrubal Cabrera, Eduardo Nunez
Nolan Arenado, COL ($4700)
Do not make a cash lineup without Arenado. I mentioned Bergman’s insanely bad splits against RHB, and Arenado has a .282 ISO against same-handed pitching at home over the past three seasons. Even if you decide to spend up at pitching in Bumgarner’s range, you can still fit at least one big bat in there, and it needs to be Arenado tonight.
Other options – Jose Ramirez, Alex Bregman, Kris Bryant, Justin Turner
Mike Moustakas, KC ($3300)
In GPP, Moose has the upside to be a tournament-winner, and you can even use him in the UTIL spot in cash if you want. He’s facing James Shields tonight, and Moustakas has a .301 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year. He’s viable across all formats on FD since you can play two third basemen.
Other options – Kyle Seager, Matt Carpenter, Jake Lamb, Tim Beckham
Trevor Story, COL ($4300)
This is the fourth Rockies righty to rank as a top play, which really tells you something about the opposing pitcher. Story is obviously much better against lefties (.302 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year, .186 ISO against RHP), but the reverse-splits of Bergman throws a lot of the hitter numbers out the window. In addition, Bergman’s 11% K rate against RHB for his career takes away the only downside to Story’s game. Did I mention he’s stealing bases this year too?
Other options – Francisco Lindor, Jean Segura, Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Didi Gregorius, Trea Turner
Elvis Andrus, TEX ($3000)
If you’re married to Arenado/Blackmon/LeMahieu as the more important Rockies, Andrus is an option at SS. It’s been a disappointing season this year for Andrus, but he’s fresh off a 20/25 season so we know the event upside is there. He’s also facing Alex Cobb who has a 6.67 ERA and has allowed 1.67 HR/9 this year with his diminished velocity.
Other options – Marcus Semien, Brandon Crawford, Brad Miller
Charlie Blackmon, COL ($4200)
I’ve harped on the Rockies’ righties the whole article, but how about the top lefty in their lineup? Christian Bergman has been far better against LHP in his career (.313 wOBA, .099 ISO allowed), but Blackmon has torched RHP in that span for a .402 wOBA and .299 ISO. Something’s gotta give, and ultimately Blackmon rates beautifully simply being a part of the Rockies offense. I will say, however, that’s I’d prioritize Arenado, Story, and LeMahieu in cash (in that order) before I’d pick Blackmon.
Other options – Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger, George Springer, Michael Brantley, Rhys Hoskins, Eric Thames, AJ Pollock
Carlos Gonzalez, COL ($3400)
Cargo is fresh off a two-homer, six-RBI game, and he’s a cheaper version of Blackmon on this slate. He should hit cleanup and he’s really the only inappropriately priced piece of the Rockies’ elite offense. As I said, Bergman handles lefties well, but this is just too cheap for a key piece of a team with a 6.6 IRT.
Other options – Shin Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo, Brett Gardner, Gerardo Parra, Joc Pederson, Tommy Pham, Marcell Ozuna, Josh Reddick, Kyle Tucker, Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Adam Jones, Trey Mancini, Mark Trumbo, Danny Valencia, Andrew McCutchen, Kevin Kiermaier