FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 7/12/19


The silly All Star Break is over, and we can finally get back to real baseball (and most importantly, DFS). We return with a bang, as tonight features 13 games, a Coors series, and a Yankee opening IRT of seven runs. We’ll be back at it in FTA chat tonight, so give us a try for the best rates in the industry! You won’t be sorry, and give me a follow on twitter @jac3600. Good luck tonight!

STARTING PITCHER

TOP PLAY

Gerrit Cole, HOU ($11,500)

Cole blows the field away as far as talent goes, but a less-than-stellar matchup coupled with a need for offense has me looking cheaper in cash tonight at the SP position. Cole is setting the league on fire with a 2.89 SIERA, 36.7% K rate, and 15.8% swinging strike rate, but it will be near 100 degrees in Texas this evening and Cole has already allowed 17 homers this year after giving up 50 from 2016-17. He’s a -200 favorite and is by far the safest source of K’s so we won’t argue if you want to pay, but I think there are more sensible cash builds this evening.

Other options – Mike Clevinger, Robbie Ray

VALUE PLAY

Caleb Smith, MIA ($8000)

Smith is likely the route I’m taking in cash tonight, although Domingo German offers some serious appeal as well for only $600 more. After Cole, Smith has the next best strikeout upside on the slate with a 31.1% K rate and 14.6% swinging strike rate (only Cole’s marks are better), and Smith also has the only IRTA on the slate under four runs (3.7). The Mets are an average offense against LHP, but they’ll be hitting in a spacious park and a controlled environment in Miami, and they’re 23.7% K rate against LHP is higher than the league average. Smith threw a quality start in his first outing off the IL, and there were no pitch limitations. He’ll also help you fit in some big time bats.

Other options – Domingo German, Adam Wainwright, Yonny Chirinos, Chase Anderson, Dinelson Lamet

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

TOP PLAY

Gary Sanchez/Edwin Encarnacion, NYY ($3900/$3700)

Coors might be the chalky offensive focus, but the Yankees have a much higher IRT than both teams there (currently sitting at seven runs on the dot). They’re at home and facing Aaron Sanchez whose 5.57 SIERA is the third worst among qualified pitchers, and Sanchez has only struck out 14.7% of RHB he’s faced this year while allowing a .377 wOBA. Sanchez and Edwin SHOULD hit third and fourth, and one of them should be a foundational piece on FD.

Other options – DJ LeMahieu (it’s very annoying he’s now a 1B), Fredie Freeman, Joey Votto, Matt Olson, Daniel Murphy, Yasmani Grandal

VALUE PLAY

Justin Bour, LAA ($2400)

Opportunity cost at C/1B is higher than normal today, but the UTIL spot makes it possible to utilize Bour’s cap relief as well. Bour hit fifth the last two games before the break and he’d be in a great spot if he did again. Bour carries a .249 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year, and Mike Leake has allowed a 41% HHR this year with only a 7.6% swinging strike rate.

Other options – Brandon Belt, Paul Goldschmidt, Eric Thames, Miguel Cabrera

Catcher values – Robinson Chirinos, Buster Posey, Omar Narvaez, Curt Casali

SECOND BASE

TOP PLAY

Jose Altuve, HOU ($3600)

On any other night, Altuve would be a rock solid core play in cash, but the mispricing of Scooter Gennett on both sites makes it a little muddier tonight. The Astros have an IRT of 5.9 runs which competes with the Coors teams, and they’re facing Jesse Chavez who is pitching over his head (3.30 ERA, 4.23 xFIP and only a 6.7% swinging strike rate). Altuve’s batted ball data is up lately, and he has a .357 wOBA and .175 ISO against RHP since last year.

Other options – Cavan Biggio, Max Muncy, Ketel Marte

VALUE PLAY

Scooter Gennett, CIN ($3200)

Gennett was battling a groin injury going into the break, but he wasn’t placed on the IL and it’s my guess he’s back in there tonight. If he is, he’s too cheap for a trip to Coors Field (his $3800 price tag on DK is even better) and he carries a .200 ISO against RHP since last year. Jon Gray is a quality pitcher but he (predictably) does much worse at home and has allowed over a 40% HHR there. Gennett is a great way to get exposure to the Reds and their 5.8 IRT.

Other options – Gleyber Torres, Ryan McMahon, Jason Kipnis, Jose Peraza, Joe Panik

THIRD BASE

TOP PLAY

Nolan Arenado, COL ($4400)

This is an odd night. We have Arenado in Coors, and his opposing 3B (Suarez) is also very much in play as well. However, there’s another 3B (see below) who is mispriced and that’s where I’m looking in cash. Arenado still has an OPS of almost 1.200 at home since the beginning of last year, however, and he can destroy any pitcher in Coors. Sonny Gray has been good this year, and has utterly dominated lefties, but righties have still gotten to him for a 37.6% HHR and over a 10% BB rate. Arenado is firmly in play in all formats but not a priority.

Other options – Eugenio Suarez, Mike Moustakas, Matt Chapman, Rafael Devers

VALUE PLAY

Justin Turner, LAD ($2800)

I believe Turner has to be used in cash games tonight. I understand that Eduardo Rodriguez is a good pitcher, but there’s simply no reason Justin Turner should ever be $2800. The Dodgers are getting a mega park upgrade going to Fenway and adding the DH, and Turner (believe it or not) has a 61% HHR against LHP over the past 30 days. Boston is also a right-hand hitters paradise with the Green Monster.

Other options – Josh Donaldson, Vlad Guerrero, Yandy Diaz, Evan Longoria

SHORTSTOP

TOP PLAY

Trevor Story, COL ($4500)

Alex Bregman took a hard ball off the chin yesterday and required stitches so I’m assuming him out for this game. That leaves Story as the unquestioned top play at the position, and he’s a good spend to get your Rockies exposure. Vegas isn’t buying Sonny Gray’s success tonight in Coors Field as they’ve pegged the Rockies with a 6.5 IRT (second highest behind the Yankees), and Story has a .253 ISO against RHP since last year. He also has a 43% HHR over his last 10 games.

Other options – Alex Bregman, Francisco Lindor, Xander Bogaerts, Marcus Semien

VALUE PLAY

Didi Gregorius, NYY ($3300)

The context can’t get much better for Didi, unless he bats really low in the order (and he hasn’t been). I assume Didi will hit fifth, and he has a .214 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. He’s facing the worst pitcher on the slate in Aaron Sanchez, and it’s going to be in the upper 80s in NY with the short RF porch. Good luck, Aaron.

Other options – Jonathan Villar, Chris Taylor, JP Crawford, Willy Adames

OUTFIELD

TOP PLAY

Mike Trout, LAA ($4700)

The outfield is beyond loaded tonight, and Trout is so good that he beats out the Coors outfielders AND the Astros OFs AND Aaron Judge. Trout has an incredible .446 wOBA and .359 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year and was beating the cover off the ball going into the break. It’s crazy to say it, but this looks like it’s Trout’s best year yet, and he’s facing Mike Leake who is utterly incapable of missing bats (career 16.2% K rate). Trout isn’t a necessity, but no one will even argue him. The Angels have a healthy IRT of 5.6 runs.

Other options – Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl, George Springer, Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, Aaron Judge, Christian Yelich, Shohei Ohtani, Yasiel Puig, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Tommy Pham, Austin Meadows

VALUE PLAY

Jesse Winker, CIN ($3400)

Winker is another solid value for Cincinnati. He has been leading off again for Cincy, and he has a 45% HHR over the last 15 games. Leadoff hitters in Coors always get an edge as far as value goes as they are almost a lock for five PAs. He’s a terrific cash play against Jon Gray who has allowed 1.44 HR/9 to LHB the last three seasons.

Other options – Andrew Benintendi, Justin Upton, Kole Calhoun, Khris Davis, Avisail Garcia, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Mallex Smith, Wil Myers, Brett Gardner, Ian Desmond

Fantasy Baseball