FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 7/12/18

Max Scherzer pitching for the Washington Nationals

My cash lineups fell short yesterday, but a full Rockies stack in GPP grouped with Greg Bird and Carlos Rodon proved more than enough to make up for the loss and then some (sometimes those days happen!).  Today there are only seven games on the slate, but we have no shortage of pitching whatsoever.  Scherzer headlines the day, but we go way past him with studs, including a really fun Severino vs. Kluber matchup.  Offense will have to take a backseat as far as spending goes, so let’s see what values we can dig up.  I’m ten rounds deep in #SFB8, so track my team on twitter if you wish!   STARTING PITCHER TOP PLAY Max Scherzer, WAS ($12,000) Scherzer comes with the same floor/ceiling combo as we saw with Sale yesterday, but he’s actually not the lock Sale was due to depth at the position.  As of right now, I’m still leaning towards spending up, as Max is currently rocking a career best 35.4% K rate and is facing a Mets team that has fallen all the way to 25th in wRC+ against RHP.  Scherzer is a -230 road favorite with a paltry 2.8 IRTA, and double-digit strikeouts looks like a good bet. Other options – Luis Severino, Corey Kluber, Blake Snell (#AllStarSnubNarrative), James Paxton   VALUE PLAY Ross Stripling, LAD ($9200) Stripling is obviously not the pitcher Scherzer is, but he offers a $2800 discount and he’s been phenomenal this season.  Stripling has a 28.7% K rate this season and is getting a park boost against the Padres who rank 28th in wRC+ against RHP with the third highest K rate against.  If you wanted to save some money in cash to get more offense in, Stripling is a viable choice at -190 favorite with a 3.2 IRTA. Other options – David Price, Steven Matz, Jameson Taillon, J.A. Happ, Kyle Gibson   CATCHER/FIRST BASE TOP PLAY Cody Bellinger, LAD ($4200) Bellinger is the ultimate GPP play tonight.  He’ll come with almost no ownership at this price tag with so much pitching on the slate, and his opponent (Tyson Ross) is a quality starter as well.  Ross has allowed a .375 wOBA and .191 ISO to LHB over the past three years, and his velocity has been down recently.  Bellinger’s HHR is at 33% L15. Other options – Justin Smoak, Steve Pearce   VALUE PLAY Kendrys Morales, TOR ($2500) If you want a punt 1B, Morales fits the bill even though he’s on the career decline.  He should hit cleanup in Fenway Park which is built for right-handed power, and David Price has allowed a 35% HHR to RHB over his last five starts.  Morales is delivering with a 26.5% HHR over his last ten games himself, and is dirt cheap. Other options – Jake Bauers, Josh Bell, Eric Hosmer Catcher values – Yasmani Grandal, Francisco Cervelli, Russell Martin   SECOND BASE TOP PLAY Max Muncy, LAD ($4400) Meh.  There is almost nothing to like at the 2B position on the high end.  However, I did mention Ross’ struggles with left-handed power, and Muncy has come out of nowhere with a .338 ISO this year.  He’s a viable GPP sprinkle. Other options – Brian Dozier   VALUE PLAY Devon Travis, TOR ($2200) Actually the 2B position is gross all the way down, so I’m fine just punting (maybe we’ll get something better as lineups come out).  Travis should hit ninth which is awful, but he’s got a .202 ISO against LHP over the past two years and gets to hit in Fenway Park.  Everyone is going to have the same issue as you at this position, remember, so it’s not awful to totally write off the position. Other options – Eduardo Nunez, Josh Harrison, Dee Gordon, Wilmer Difo   THIRD BASE TOP PLAY Anthony Rendon, WAS ($3900) On a shorter slate, we get different names at the top of the position (especially when there is so much pitching).  Steven Matz has pitched well recently, but he’s not in the caliber of the other arms on the slate, and Rendon has a 377 wOBA and .221 against LHP over the past three years and is killing the ball lately with a 42.2% HHR last 15 games.  It’s tough to fit him if you spend up to Scherzer, but he’s great in all formats. Other options – Jose Ramirez, Justin Turner, Travis Shaw   VALUE PLAY Yangervis Solarte, TOR ($2700) I wouldn’t go nuts with multiple Blue Jays (even though I’ve already listed three) as David Price is a good pitcher.  As I mentioned, however, he’s really had an issue with hard contact lately, and has given up a .177 ISO against RHB since the beginning of last year.  Solarte has really upped his power game this year with a .190 ISO and he gets premier lineup spots. Other options – Matt Duffy, Rafael Devers, David Freese   SHORTSTOP TOP PLAY Trea Turner, WAS ($3900) If you can fit one big-ish bat in there with Scherzer, I’d make it Turner, and he’s a lock for me if you go any cheaper.  The SS position behind hi is simply awful today, and Steven Matz has allowed a .215 ISO to RHB since the beginning of last year.  Turner had a combined 58 homers and steals in only 98 games last year, and he’s already up to 33 this year.  This is more a pick of necessity than total upside, but Turner is an elite hitter. Other options – Francisco Lindor, Xander Bogaerts, Didi Gregorius, Jean Segura   VALUE PLAY Brad Miller, MIL ($2600) If you absolutely have to punt, Brad Miller isn’t the worst option.  He’s got a .206 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last season, and has been hitting sixth for the Brewers which isn’t awful.  Jameson Taillon is a good pitcher but he’s shown vulnerability to lefties, allowing a .174 ISO to them. Other options – Chris Taylor, Aledmys Diaz   OUTFIELD TOP PLAY Mookie Betts/JD Martinez, BOS ($5400/$5300) It’s almost impossible to get one of these guys in and still build an adequate cash lineup, but there’s no denying how they’re hitting right now and also how good they’ve been against LHP.  The Red Sox have an IRT of 5.3 runs which is almost a full run higher than the next highest team, and J.A Happ has really struggled lately with 20 ER allowed over his last four starts.  Both Betts and JD have elite platoon numbers, and will come with lower-than-usual ownership on a slate dominated by pitching. Other options – Andrew Benintendi, Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Eric Thames, Starling Marte, Christian Yelich, Michael Brantley, Nelson Cruz   VALUE PLAY Randal Grichuk, TOR ($2500) I know, Blue Jays again.  Grichuk has been leading off against lefties lately, and he has a .210 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year.  the 25.4% K rate is rough for cash, but his price tag and lineup spot mitigates a lot of that risk, and you need punts like this in cash with all the pitching you have to choose from. Other options – Teoscar Hernandez, Kevin Pillar, Joc Pederson, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Andrew Toles, Brett Gardner, Adam Eaton, Michael Taylor, Kevin Kiermaier, Austin Meadows, Corey Dickerson, Tyler Naquin Fantasy Baseball

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