Happy Hump Day! We have a nice 11-gamer on tap for this evening, headlined by Chris Sale (who is apparently superhuman). The tricky part is there is offense too, so value hunting is the name of the game tonight. I will be in chat helping our FTA+ subs cash out, and follow me on twitter @jac3600. Our #SFB8 football draft is eight rounds deep!
Chris Sale, BOS ($12,600)
Sale is incredibly pricey, but he’s a building block for cash today. He’s been unreal lately, with only five ER allowed and a 66/9 K/BB ratio over his last six starts. His velocity is averaging 97.5 MPH and his slider his vicious which has made him virtually untouchable lately. The Rangers actually rank tenth in wRC+ against LHP, but their best hitters are mostly left-handed and Sale is matchup-proof these days. He is a -400 favorite, which I don’t think I’ve ever seen before, and has a 2.8 IRTA. Don’t overthink this one. You lose cash games if he’s not in them.
Other options – Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, Kenta Maeda, Mike Foltynewicz
Luke Weaver, STL ($6600)
While Sale is a cash lock, there’s still a lot of offense to be accessed, and it makes sense to target them in GPPs. For that, you’ll need a cheap SP, and Weaver fits the bill. He’s had a rough season, but he’s still very talented and gets a great matchup against the White Sox. As a team, they rank 25th in wRC+ against RHP with the fourth highest K rate against. You can get Coors, Red Sox, Indians, whatever you want in GPPs with this pick.
Other options – Freddy Peralta, Vincent Velasquez, Carlos Rodon, Dylan Bundy, Sonny Gray, Joey Lucchesi
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI ($4800)
All the expensive hitters will not fit the cash bill because of Sale’s presence, but Goldy is in Coors facing a reverse-split pitcher in German Marquez. The Rockies righty has allowed a .227 ISO to RHB over the past two years, and Arizona has a solid IRT of 5.4 runs. Goldschmidt has a hard hit rate of 34% since the beginning of June, making his slow start a distant memory.
Other options – Freddie Freeman, Joey Votto, Edwin Encarnacion, Ian Desmond
Mitch Moreland, BOS ($3100)
Moreland is way too cheap for someone who will bat cleanup for the Red Sox. Boston has the second highest IRT on the slate with 5.7 runs, and Moreland has a whopping 38% hard hit rate the last 15 games. Over the past two years, Moreland has a .207 ISO against RHP, and Bartolo Colon has allowed a .215 ISO to LHB in that same span. He’s a lock on a slate that prioritizes Sale, and the UTIL spot makes it so you can play Jose Martinez (another great 1B value).
Other options – Jose Martinez, Yonder Alonso, Greg Bird, Jose Abreu
Catcher values – JR Murphy, Evan Gattis, Tony Wolters, Yadier Molina
D.J. LeMahieu, COL ($3900)
Even with Sale, it would be nice to try and get a piece of Coors Field. Shelby Miller has been abysmal so far in his return to the majors, and it’s resulted in the Rockies having an IRT of 6.1 runs (slate high). LeMahieu doesn’t have power upside, but he leads off and has a 33% HHR last 15 games. At under 4k, it’s possible to make him your “one big spend”.
Other options – Jose Altuve, Ozzie Albies, Scooter Gennett
Neil Walker, NYY ($2300)
I wrote up Walker yesterday despite hitting ninth in the Yankees order, and he paid off his cheap tag yesterday. You can use him as a full punt again today, as he’s got an elite 42% HHR last 15 games, and Dylan Bundy has struggled with lefty power. Bundy has allowed a .180 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year, and the Yanks have an IRT of 5.1 runs.
Other options – Yoan Moncada, Daniel DeScalso, Dee Gordon, Jedd Gyorko, Brock Holt
Nolan Arenado, COL ($4900)
Arenado is having another “Arenado season”, and tonight he’ll face an inferior pitcher in Shelby Miller. Arenado is once again punishing the ball (.284 ISO), and Miller has allowed 2.57 HR/9 in the early going of his season. This is an elite GPP play, but out of reach in cash.
Other options – Jose Ramirez, Alex Bregman, Jake Lamb, Justin Turner, Travis Shaw
Tim Beckham, BAL ($2600)
Beckham is not the greatest hitter, but he leads off for the O’s and Sonny Gray has been dreadful this year with a 5.85 ERA and 4.04 BB/9. Beckham’s HHR is at 25% over his last ten games, and he should get 2-3 PAs against Gray before the game gets into the Yankees bullpen (and if Baltimore is winning, we don’t see the truly good Yankee arms).
Other options – Matt Carpenter, Rafael Devers, Kyle Seager, Yangervis Solarte
Xander Bogaerts, BOS ($4200)
There are a ton of shortstops at the top of the pricing pool that look solid, but Bogaerts is the cheapest, and therefore I’ll rank him ahead of the rest. Xander has a 29.3% HHR last 15 games, and Bartolo Colon has been equally bad against same-handed hitters over the past two years. Bogaerts has a .181 ISO against RHP in that span, and will hit in the heart of the Red Sox lineup and their 5.7 IRT.
Other options – Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Manny Machado, Didi Gregorius
David Fletcher, LAA ($2200)
I’m really hoping Fletcher leads off for the Angels (he did the last time they faced a lefty). If he does, he provides a great punt option. He posted a solid .413 wOBA and .209 ISO for AAA before being called up to the Angels, and he does NOT strike out (7.6% K rate at both AAA and the majors this year). There are far worse punts, and you’ll need a few to comfortably fit Sale.
Other options – Paul DeJong, Chris Taylor, Brad Miller
Charlie Blackmon, COL ($4400)
The outfield is once again loaded, and I have Blackmon ranked as my top overall hitter regardless of position. I’ve mentioned how Shelby Miller should really struggle in Coors, and Blackmon has a .413 wOBA and .289 ISO against RHP over the past two seasons. He’s not running as much this year, but the potential is still there, and he’ll hit second for a Rockies team with the highest IRT on the slate.
Other options – Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, AJ Pollock, David Peralta, Michael Brantley, Mike Trout, Carlos Gonzalez, George Springer, Christian Yelich, Eric Thames
Tommy Pham/Marcell Ozuna, STL ($2900/$2800)
The Cardinals duo were my value plays yesterday, and they’re too cheap once again today. I did a straight pivot to Ozuna once Pham was scratched yesterday, so watch the Cards’ lineup closely tonight. The Cardinals bats are getting a great park boost going to Chicago, and Carlos Rodon has allowed a .184 ISO to RHB over the past two years.
Other options – Gerardo Parra, Jon Jay, Steven Souza, Brett Gardner, Adan Jones, Mark Trumbo, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Ender Inciarte, Dexter Fowler, Dustin Fowler, Josh Reddick, Kyle Tucker, Curtis Granderson, Daniel Palka