Tonight is a full 15-game slate that has it all – pitching on both the high and low end, offense, Coors, you name it. Kershaw came through for me last night, which was vital as both Gerrit Cole and Eduardo Rodriguez (the other cash options) did well also. There are multiple ways to build tonight, and I will be in FTA+ chat helping all our subs out. Follow me on twitter @jac3600 and track my #SFB8 picks. I’m four round in!
Justin Verlander, HOU ($11,800)
If you decide to take pitching over offense, Verlander is your man, and I will say there are already enough value bats to make this work. The A’s are surprisingly fourth in wRC+ against RHP but they have an above-average K rate and Verlander is currently rocking a 31.8% mark. He’s a -215 favorite with a 3.3 IRTA and is an innings horse (which drives the QS upside). He’ll also have one of the more favorable umpires in baseball.
Other options – Trevor Bauer
Rich Hill, LAD ($8000)
I do want to point out that Phillies prospect Enyel De Los Santos is min-priced on FD which is VEEEEEERY interesting. However, the smart value play is still Hill despite length issues and a 4.83 FIP. Kershaw made short work of these Padres yesterday and Hill has allowed two runs or less in five of his last six starts (3.12 FIP). The Padres rank 20th in wRC+ against LHP and have the seventh highest K rate against them, making Hill a fine “chalk” cash play even if he comes with downside.
Other options – Masahiro Tanaka, Patrick Corbin, Garrett Richards, Miles Mikolas, Jose Quintana, Julio Teheran, Enyel De Los Santos
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI ($4800)
It’s Goldy against a lefty in Coors, which puts him in the conversation for the top overall hitter of the day. Tyler Anderson has actually been quite good lately (even in Coors), but he’s allowed a .190 ISO to RHB since the beginning of last year, and Goldy has a .415 wOBA and .294 ISO against LHP in that span. If you don’t go Verlander at SP, Goldy should be one of the first hitters you consider.
Other options – Freddie Freeman, Edwin Encarnacion, Ian Desmond, Carlos Santana
Yonder Alonso, CLE ($2700)
Alonso was the easiest cash call for me yesterday, and he came through with a homer. Once again, I don’t know how you fade him at $2700 in cash, even if you have a cheaper SP. Alonso will hit fifth for an Indians lineup that has an IRT of 5.4 runs, and he’s facing Sal Romano who has been beaten up by LHB to the tune of a .191 ISO since the beginning of last year. The Reds bullpen also ranks 25th in xFIP.
Other options – Mitch Moreland, Logan Morrison, Joe Mauer, Greg Bird, Jose Martinez, Josh Bell
Catcher values – Evan Gattis, JR Murphy, Tom Murphy, Chris Iannetta, Wilson Ramos, Yadier Molina, Salvador Perez
D.J. LeMahieu, COL ($3800)
Despite a tough matchup with Patrick Corbin, the Rockies have the slate-high IRT at 5.8 runs, and LeMahieu will lead off for them. He’s been great since returning from the DL, posting a 33% hard hit rate, and he has a .380 wOBA and .182 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year. He’s a good way to get Coors exposure if you don’t want to break the bank on hitters like Arenado or Story.
Other options – Jose Altuve, Brian Dozier, Ozzie Albies
Neil Walker, NYY ($2400)
I hate this pick since he’s going to hit near the bottom of the order (likely even ninth), but he’s a way to completely punt the position and still get upside. The Yankees have the second highest IRT on the slate at 5.7 runs and are facing a very HR prone pitcher in Andrew Cashner. Walker has had an abysmal season, but he’s got a 42% HHR over the last 15 games. It’s POSSIBLE he gets elevated in the order if the Yankees rest players after a doubleheader yesterday, so we can hope.
Other options – Whit Merrifield, Jason Kipnis, Jedd Gyorko, Kolten Wong, Logan Forsythe
Nolan Arenado, COL ($4800)
Arenado against a lefty in Coors. Enough said. HOWEVER, third base houses my favorite value play of the slate (see below), so I will NOT be spending up on Arenado today. I do need to point out, however, that Arenado has an unreal .536 wOBA and .411 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year, so if you do want to pay up you certainly get no argument from me.
Other options – Jose Ramirez, Alex Bregman, Eduardo Escobar, Miguel Andujar
Matt Carpenter, STL ($3200)
Carpenter is a lock for me in cash. If you decide to go super cheap at SP and play Arenado at third, I would still lock in Carpenter in the UTIL spot so you have them both. This whole “Dylan Covey is good” nonsense is finally over, and he’s once again allowing FBs at an alarming rate while not striking out anyone. The Cardinals get a massive park upgrade and add the DH, which has led to an IRT of 5.4 runs. Carpenter has a 33% HHR the last 15 games, and he has a .245 ISO against RHP since the beginning of 2016. I would pay 4k for him today, and he’s just flat out mispriced.
Other options – Mike Moustakas, Rafael Devers, Yangervis Solarte, Colin Moran
Francisco Lindor, CLE ($4800)
Story against a lefty in Coors usually occupies the top spot, but Patrick Corbin’s high K rate dings him enough to drop him down, and Lindor is just the better player. He gets a wonderful matchup against Sal Romano, and Lindor has a .255 ISO against RHP with a combined 35 homers and steals. He’s viable in all formats depending how you utilize SP.
Other options – Trevor Story, Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner, Didi Gregorius, Nick Ahmed
Chris Taylor, LAD ($2900)
The SS position is generally devoid of value, but thankfully that’s not the case today as Taylor seems the obvious choice. Taylor generally will lead off against lefties, and he has a .189 ISO against them since the beginning of last year. Eric Lauer has been a mess this year. walking almost four batters per nine innings and allowing 1.34 HR/9 with a 4.84 ERA. The Dodgers’ IRT of 4.5 runs pales in comparison to some, but Taylor still seems like the logical choice for cash here.
Other options – Elvis Andrus, Paul DeJong, Jorge Polanco, Brad Miller
Mookie Betts, BOS ($5100)
The outfield position is beyond loaded tonight, which is part of the reason I’m really considering fading Verlander (ugh). The Red Sox have an IRT of 5.3 runs against Yovani Gallardo who has allowed a .233 ISO against same-handed hitters over the past two years. Betts is having an MVP-caliber year with a .330 ISO and a combined 38 homers and steals, and his hard hit rate is approaching 40% over this last ten games.
Other options – JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Michael Brantley, AJ Pollock, Eddie Rosario, George Springer, Charlie Blackmon, Shin Soo Choo
Tommy Pham/Marcell Ozuna, STL ($2900/$2800)
You want at least one of these Cardinals outfielder in your cash lineups tonight, and both might be a good idea if you use Verlander. Pham is the preferred choice if you’re picking one, as he has a .362 wOBA and .182 ISO against RHP over the past two years (plus he’ll steal bases). Both are great options against Dylan Covey who is one year removed from allowing 2.57 HR/9 over a full season.
Other options – Brett Gardner, Clint Frazier, Steven Souza, Curtis Granderson, Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, Corey Dickerson, Ender Inciarte, Kole Calhoun, Tyler Naquin