Beautiful weather continues all around the country, so let’s get right into tackling this Sunday slate which starts promptly at 1:05 EST. It’s our last day Coors-free, as we’re going to get a full week there next week, so enjoy today before you have seven days of figuring out how to jam them all in. I’ll be on chat the normal time helping all our subs, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.
TOP PLAY AND TOP VALUE
Noah Syndergaard, NYM ($8400)
With all the top options either overpriced (Odorizzi) or facing a terrible context (Snell, Bieber), I’m reserving them for GPP play and focusing on Syndergaard as the one building block of cash games on FD. Noah has been very inconsistent this year, but his 4.83 ERA is backed by a 3.89 xFIP which indicates positive regression. He gets a home matchup today against the Rockies who rank 20th in wOBA against RHP, and Thor is a -190 favorite with a 3.4 IRTA. He has a 24% K rate against LHB and a 25.3% K rate against RHB this year.
Other options – Blake Snell, Jake Odorizzi, Shane Bieber, Aaron Nola, Robbie Ray, Eduardo Rodriguez, Wade Miley
C.J. Cron, MIN ($3500)
It’s all about the Twins today, as they once again have an IRT of six runs which leads the slate. They’ll get to tee off against Ryan Carpenter who has allowed a career 2.79 HR/9, and he’s followed by the Detroit bullpen that ranks dead last in SIERA. Cron has a 35.7% HHR over his last 15 games and has a .258 ISO against LHP dating back to last season. He’s too cheap, and he’s a building block for me as well today.
Other options – Rhys Hoskins, Peter Alonso, Jose Abreu, Carlos Santana, Gary Sanchez, Yasmani Grandal
Jesus Aguilar, MIL ($2200)
The Brewers are right behind the Twins in terms of IRT with a 5.7 mark, and they’ll take on Steven Brault who has posted a career 5.21 xFIP and has a sub-20% since last year. If Aguilar hits sixth or better, he can easily be used as a punt in the UTIL spot (I’m not fading Cron) as he’s posted a .231 ISO against LHP since last year.
Other options – Christian Walker, Joey Votto, Kevin Cron, Yonder Alonso, Ryan O’Hearn
Catcher values – Mitch Garver, JT Realmuto, Mike Zunino, Wilson Ramos
Mike Moustakas, MIL ($3800)
Moose is much better against RHP, but he’s still a solid part of Brewers stacks against Brault who doesn’t discriminate who he’s terrible against. The Pirates bullpen is also 29th in SIERA over the last 15 games.
Other options – DJ LeMahieu
Jason Kipnis, CLE ($2300)
The smart 2B choice in cash is to punt with Kipnis, who routinely has a top-four lineup spot for them. He’s a shell of the former hitter he once was, but he still has a .170 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. With Masahiro Tanaka pushed back to tomorrow, it’s a bullpen game for the Yankees, and Cleveland has an IRT of 5.3 runs against Chad Green and company.
Other options – Jonathan Schoop, Derek Dietrich, Cesar Hernandez, Nicky Lopez
Miguel Sano, MIN ($3500)
I think there is better “Twins exposure” for cash than Sano considering his recent batted ball data is down (15.7% HHR last 15), but it’s tough to ignore his .279 ISO against LHP for the past two seasons. Sano is an elite GPP play, and he’d be a lot more cash viable if he got bumped up some spots in the order.
Other options – Nolan Arenado, Yoan Moncada, Eduardo Escobar, Renato Nunez
Jose Ramirez, CLE ($3000)
Sigh. What happened to this guy?? He’s gone from MVP candidate to posting a triple slash of .200/.297/.300 and his recent HHR is at 15%. I’m still buying low. His batted ball data remains consistent with last year, and he’s still running (15 SBs). Against the underbelly of the Yankees bullpen for the first few innings, I’m willing to keep rolling him.
Other options – Vladimir Guerrero, Marwin Gonzalez, Eugenio Suarez, JD Davis
Jorge Polanco, MIN ($4000)
This is a TOUGH pick with other viable options right around Polanco, but I’ll side with the Twins love I have today and their full nine innings of potential upside. Polanco has hit safely in ten straight games with a 27% HHR, and he has a good shot at five PAs against what looks to be the worst pitching staff overall today (Baltimore has to come in not far behind here). At $100 less than Lindor (who is also an amazing option), I’ll side with Polanco for now.
Other options – Francisco Lindor, Alex Bregman, Adalberto Mondesi
Didi Gregorius, NYY ($3200)
The Yankees said they might look to sit Didi in one game every series for now, which would put him out of the lineup today. I’m hoping they reconsider this, as he homered yesterday and would help the Yankees not to get swept by Cleveland. Shane Bieber has posted a 29.9% K rate this season, but he’s also been hit hard by LHB in his career, to the tune of a .365 wOBA and 1.59 HR/9 allowed.
Other options – Gleyber Torres, Jean Segura, Jonathan Villar, Kevin Newman
TOP PLAY AND TOP VALUE
Nelson Cruz, MIN ($3100)
It’s rare I focus on one specific outfielder, but not only do I think he’s better than all the top options, I don’t think it’s close. Cruz has a .282 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year, and he has a 50% HHR since returning from the DL while also homering in three straight. There is absolutely no reason why he should be priced the way he is, and he needs to be the first name entered into your hitter pool. It’s baseball, so there’s merit to fading his massive ownership in GPP, but I’m likely going all in here.
Other options – Christian Yelich, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Bryce Harper, Tommy Pham, Avisail Garcia, Ketel Marte, Michael Conforto
Value plays – Aaron Hicks, Clint Frazier, Brett Gardner, Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler, Alex Gordon, Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain, Eloy Jimenez, Leury Garcia, Byron Buxton, Yasiel Puig, Jesse WinkerFantasy Baseball