This slate has it all – pitching on both the high and low end, offense, Coors Field, stacks… It’ll be a fun one to target as there doesn’t seem to be a clear-cut “chalk” answer to how to build (unlike yesterday). I will miss chat again tonight for our FTA+ subs but I’ll try and check in for the afternoon just to take some questions early on. Subscribers can also tweet me @jac3600. Good luck tonight!
Chris Sale, BOS ($11,500)
There is a terrific trio at the top of the pitching pool tonight in Sale, Verlander, and deGrom (and that’s not even accounting for Strasburg and Bauer right below). I do think Sale rises above the rest based on several factors. He’s by far the Vegas darling of the bunch, as a whopping -300 favorite with a 2.9 IRTA (both slate extremes). The White Sox rank 24th in wRC+ against LHP with a 27.7% K rate which is the highest in the league. Fenway Park does inflate RH power, but if Sale can navigate around Abreu it should be smooth Sale-ing (mic drop).
Other options – Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom, Stephen Strasburg, Trevor Bauer
Walker Buehler, LAD ($8400)
Buehler is the most fun GPP play if you want a pitcher you can stack Coors around. Atlanta is not the ideal matchup as they rank 12th in wRC+ against RHP and have several contact-oriented lefties in their lineup, but Vegas loves Buehler as -190 favorite with a 3.2 IRTA. Buehler has been great against everyone this year (except the Rockies) and is posting a solid 21.2% K/BB ratio. The Braves are also getting a park downgrade going to L.A.
Other options – Vince Velasquez, Masahiro Tanaka, Zack Greinke, Garrett Richards, Luke Weaver, Caleb Smith
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI ($4600)
You’ll have to get creative to jam in Goldy with Sale, but I think it’s worth a try. Whatever slump Goldschmidt was in is long in the past, and he’s posting a 44% hard hit rate over his last ten contests. He is generally better against a lefty but Rockies pitcher German Marquez has allowed a whopping .227 ISO to same-handed hitters over the last two seasons. The Coors effect is fully in play as Arizona carries an IRT of 5.1 runs (which I honestly think is too low).
Other options – Freddie Freeman, Joey Votto, Jose Martinez, Mitch Moreland, Carlos Santana, Gary Sanchez
Justin Smoak/Kendrys Morales, TOR ($3400/$2300)
Toronto let us down yesterday (at least the main players did), but they once again check in with an IRT of 5.2 runs which is higher than both Coors teams. Andrew Cashner has allowed a .354 wOBA and .191 ISO to LHB over the last two years and the good luck he’s had in that span is long over with. Smoak is the better play with a .244 ISO against RHP since 2015, but Morales is squarely in play if you need that savings to try for Goldy and Sale.
Other options – Mark Reynolds, CJ Cron, Logan Morrison, Yuli Gurriel
Catcher values – JT Realmuto, Yasmani Grandal, Yadier Molina, Russell Martin
Jose Altuve, HOU ($4100)
Altuve doesn’t fit the cash build tonight even with Houston rocking a 5.4 IRT (highest of the slate). Doug Fister is a lousy pitcher but he’s been much better against righties since the beginning of last year. However, the Astros look to be one of the better contrarian stacks on the slate at their full price tags, and Altuve has been hot lately (35% hard hit rate last ten games).
Other options – Dee Gordon, Daniel DeScalso, D.J. LeMahieu
Kolten Wong, STL ($2100)
It’s more than likely that Kolten Wong hits seventh or eighth, but we’ve seen him get as high as sixth in recent games, and that would be fantastic with a great matchup against Matt Harvey in Cincinnati. The Cards are getting a tremendous park shift is their favor and are rocking a 5.2 IRT as well. Harvey has been terrible against LHB in recent years and is backed by a Reds bullpen that has plummeted to 26th in FIP (and are missing their best RP in Raisel Iglesias).
Other options – Ian Kinsler, Eduardo Nunez, Jonathan Schoop, Jonathan Villar, Devon Travis
Nolan Arenado, COL ($5200)
I prefer Goldschmidt to Arenado if spending up for one big Coors bat, but Arenado is on one of his hard contact binges lately (38% hard hit rate over his last ten games). Arenado has over a .400 wOBA and .300 ISO in home games over his last three years and Zack Greinke (despite being one of the better pitchers on the slate) has allowed WAY too much hard contact this year. Arenado has had moderate success against Greinke in the past, with seven of his 13 hits against him going for extra bases.
Other options – Alex Bregman, Jake Lamb, Matt Carpenter, Anthony Rendon, Travis Shaw
Yangervis Solarte, TOR ($3100)
Solarte’s price tag has dropped $300 since yesterday’s slate which doesn’t make sense since he’s got just as good a matchup. He strikes me as an excellent cash target as he’s been hitting second since Josh Donaldson went down (the latter was supposed to be activated today but it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen). Solarte has a .174 ISO against RHP over the last three years and is facing an extreme flyballer in Andrew Cashner.
Other options – Justin Turner, Rafael Devers, Luis Valbuena, Matt Duffy
Francisco Lindor, CLE ($4400)
Lindor is an incredible GPP play tonight as Cleveland is likely to go WAY underlooked given the context of the slate. Michael Fulmer doesn’t strike out batters and has allowed a .190 ISO to RHB since the beginning of last year, and Lindor has a .244 ISO against RHP in that span. Lindor should see single digit ownership percentages with a lot of other top shortstops priced below him, and Cleveland has a sneaky 4.8 IRT. The Detroit bullpen is ranked last in FIP and ISO allowed.
Other options – Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa, Trea Turner
Daniel Robertson, TB ($2300)
Tampa Bay is not in a good context (good pitching environment, 3.5 IRT), but Robertson has been leading off against LHP lately and possesses a .175 ISO against LHP over the past three seasons. Marco Gonzales has taken a step forward as a pitcher this season but he’s still allowed a 34% hard hit rate to RHB over the last three years. Robertson is certainly a viable punt to get you the ability to spend up elsewhere.
Other options – Zack Cozart, Brock Holt, Yairo Munoz
Mike Trout, LAA ($5400)
Trout is not attainable in cash games unless you sacrifice pitching (which I don’t recommend), but he’s been blisteringly hot lately with a 42% hard hit rate over his last 15 games. Lance Lynn is usually better against RHB but he’s terrible this year with a 4.69 FIP and an insane 6.11 BB/9. Trout has a .424 wOBA and .245 ISO against same-handed pitching over his last three years, and brings speed to his already ridiculous projections.
Other options – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Bryce Harper, Justin Upton, Christian Yelich, David Peralta, Tommy Pham, Marcell Ozuna, George Springer
Curtis Granderson, TOR ($2500)
Grandersone rewarded us with his cheap price tag by homering yesterday, and he’s the same price today. I had him as a virtual lock against Davis Hess, and as long as he’s still leading off I’m treating him the same way tonight. Grandyman has a .231 ISO against RHP over the past two years, and Andrew Cashner cannot keep the ball on the ground or in the park.
Other options – Jarrod Dyson, Chris Owings, Teoscar Hernandez, Adam Jones, Trey Mancini, Mark Trumbo, Kevin Pillar, Jesse Winker, Odubel Herrera, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Dexter Fowler, Brett Gardner, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Joc Pederson, Dustin Fowler