Happy Friday! We had a discussion before prices were actually released that Cole would be a lock no matter what, and then both sites went ahead and put deGrom at a massive discount (DK it’s just ridiculous). It’ll be a fun one tonight, as we’ll be value hunting to fit in those top SPs, so make sure to get in on our premium service (which gives you access to live chat and our A.C.E. projection model). I’m also on twitter @jac3600.
Jacob deGrom, NYM ($10,300)
I really want Cole, but I see no point in spending the extra funds for cash when deGrom is $900 cheaper (and an unreal $2800 cheaper on DK!). Since the beginning of last year, deGrom has a 2.02 FIP and a 31.1% K rate at home, and the Rockies are ranked 28th in road OPS since the beginning of last season. They’ll get Charlie Blackmon back tonight which helps, but deGrom is a solid -205 favorite with a 3.1 IRTA. He’s not quite the Vegas darling Cole is, but the difference in price goes a long way. I will say this – if you do have the extra funds when lineups come out, Cole is better.
Other options – Gerrit Cole, Clayton Kershaw, Andrew Heaney
Andrew Heaney, LAA ($9400)
I really like Heaney in GPPs, as he’ll fly under the radar with the top three guys garnering so much attention. The Mariners are starting to fall hard after a hot start to the season, and Mitch Haniger may not play after leaving with injury last night. Seattle has the seventh highest K rate against LHP with a 26.1% mark, and Heaney has come out of the gate firing off the DL with a 44% K rate. The park factor is big time in his favor, and Seattle has an IRT of 3.8 runs.
Other options – Brandon Woodruff, Kyle Gibson, Marcus Stroman, Rick Porcello, Drew Pomeranz
Freeman Freeman, ATL ($4400)
Freeman is a luxury with some amazing 1B values for cash, but he’s got a .424 wOBA and .254 ISO this season against RHP with a 51% HHR. Miami is not a premier hitting environment and Jose Urena has a solid 51% GB rate this year. However, he’s also allowed a 43.4% HHR with a 4.77 SIERA, and has given up 1.45 HR/9 to LHB since 2017.
Other options – Rhys Hoskins, Jose Abreu, Edwin Encarnacion, Luke Voit, Gary Sanchez
Matt Olson, OAK ($3000)
Olson is a borderline hitter lock for me on FD at his 3k price tag. He’s in the heat of Globe Life Park and facing Lance Lynn who has allowed 1.56 HR/9 to LHB since 2017. In that span, Olson has an ISO of .250 with a whopping SIXTY HOMERS in that span. He’s hitting third for Oakland right now, and they have an IRT of five runs.
Other options – Justin Smoak, Joey Votto, Ji-Man Choi, Yonder Alonso
Catcher values – Yasmani Grandal, JT Realmuto, Mitch Garver, Jonathan Lucroy
Mike Moustakas, MIL ($3900)
Moustakas is crushing the ball right now (39.1% HHR last 15), and the Brewers currently have the highest IRT on the slate at six runs. Rookie Davis should be COMPLETELY overmatched in this one, as he has compiled a career 6.79 FIP and 2.56 HR/9 at the MLB level this season. Pittsburgh’s bullpen is also ranked 24th in FIP and 25th in ISO allowed.
Other options – DJ LeMahieu, Brandon Lowe
Cesar Hernandez, PHI ($2800)
With the injury to Andrew McCutchen, Cesar has moved back into the leadoff spot and is a bargain as a result. Tyler Mahle has taken big strides in the K department, but he still gets brutalized by LHB (42.1% HHR allowed since 2017) and Tucker Barnhart is one of the worst catchers in the league as far as pop/release goes.
Other options – Kike Hernandez, Derek Dietrich, Nicky Lopez
Matt Chapman, OAK ($3800)
Lance Lynn hasn’t been good against righties either, and Chapman has been excellent in the reverse split since last year, posting a .355 wOBA and .266 ISO against RHP. He also has a 38.5% HHR the last 15 games and Texas’ bullpen is ranked 27th in SIERA.
Other options – Anthony Rendon, Rafael Devers, Yoan Moncada, Eduardo Escobar
Travis Shaw, MIL ($2400)
Shaw has been awful this year, but he’s posting an ISO of .210 against RHP since the beginning of 2017 with back to back 30 homer seasons. I’ve spoken of Rookie Davis’ struggles already, and Shaw is a terrific cheap way to get access to the Brewers’ IRT of six runs. He’s viable in all formats, even if he bats seventh.
Other options – Justin Turner, Josh Donaldson, Jose Ramirez, Vlad Guerrero
Adalberto Mondesi, KC ($3900)
There are a slew of good SS options tonight, but I really like Mondesi, especially since you get him at a slight discount to the others. Ivan Nova is yet another gas can with a 5.08 SIERA, 13.6% K rate, and 8% swinging strike rate, and he’s also allowed the most SBs over the last three years of any pitcher on the slate. Mondesi already has 22 steals on the season, and he’s also hitting for power against RHP with a .213 ISO.
Other options – Alex Bregman, Trea Turner, Francisco Lindor, Elvis Andrus
Manny Machado, SD ($3300)
Machado was one of my favorite players to use in DFS the last few years, but I’ve softened on that a lot since he’s in SD now. Tonight I like the thought of going back to him as he’s simply too cheap around the industry. The man has posted a .906 OPS and .197 ISO against same-handed pitchers over the past three years, and Washington starter Erick Fedde has a 5.24 xFIP this year. The Nats’ bullpen is also ranked 29th in FIP, and won’t get any better after they whiffed on Kimbrel.
Other options – Fernando Tatis, Marcus Semien, Niko Goodrum (he’s a SS now?), David Fletcher
Christian Yelich, MIL ($4900)
It takes a lot to say Mike Trout isn’t the top outfielder, especially when the Angels have an IRT over five going against a lefty that doesn’t K people, but that’s how incredibly good Yelich looks tonight. He is the best hitter on the top expected offense tonight, and Yelich has posted a .414 wOBA and .290 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year while also stealing 35 bases. He’s got ten hits and a 41% HHR over his last five games, so good luck to you, Rookie Davis.
Other options – Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham, Avisail Garcia, Khris Davis, Michael Conforto
Derek Fisher, HOU ($3000)
FanDuel does not seem to understand that Fisher is not only a good ballplayer, but is also producing at a high level on an almost nightly basis. He’s the Astros leadoff hitter until Springer and/or Altuve come back, and Fisher has posted a 32.2% HHR since he’s assumed that role. Tonight he brings his .267 ISO against RHP against Gabriel Ynoa and the bottom-ranked Baltimore bullpen, and the Astros have an IRT of 5.2 runs.
Other options – Alex Gordon, Josh Reddick, Victor Robles, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Nelson Cruz, Jesse Winker, Yasiel Puig, Delino DeShields, Danny Santana, Chris Taylor, Chad PinderFantasy Baseball