FanDuel was solid last night (DK wasn’t, but we’ll recover that this evening!), and tonight is looking like a fun slate to tackle. The pitching seems underpriced on FD so we’ll be looking for the optimal offensive combos for the ten games, and make sure to give our FTA+ premium package a try FREE for one month. We offer state-of-the-art projections, and live chat leading up to first pitch every day! I will be in chat tonight, and follow along with me on twitter @jac3600. Good luck!
Shohei Ohtani, LAA ($8600)
I’ll give a cheaper option for GPPs below, but honestly Ohtani looks like not only the top play tonight but the best value as well. The matchup against KC is not great for Ohtani’s K upside, but the rookie is currently holding a solid 25.6% K rate thus far, and he’s a whopping -260 favorite with a 3.1 IRTA (both slate extremes). Ohtani is too cheap tonight, and you’re able to get some nice bats alongside him at an $8600 price tag.
Other options – Aaron Nola, Lance McCullers
Jake Odorizzi, MIN ($7000)
Odorizzi is a solid GPP target on FD, and he looks to be a good SP2 on DraftKings if you’re doing early builds over there. The White Sox are currently a neutral matchup against RHP (13th in wRC+) but they project to be much worse than that and they have the fifth highest K rate against righties. Odorizzi’s reverse splits could get him into trouble against hitters like Abreu and Tim Anderson, but his K/BB ratio is 13%, which is up from the 10.9% mark last year. He’s also a solid favorite at -165.
Other options – Eduardo Rodriguez, Jose Quintana, Jack Flaherty, Jon Gray
Matt Olson, OAK ($3600)
The A’s were a semi-dud last night (my two main targets split as Davis came through but Semien was a colossal bust). I’m going right back to Oakland tonight, however, as they’re carrying an IRT of 5.3 runs against Colon which is currently the highest of the evening. Bartolo Colon has allowed 2.04 HR/9 this year and his FB rate has been skyrocketing with every year that passes. Olson has rocked an amazing .325 ISO against RHP in his career thus far, and Colon’s lack of K ability should diminish Olson’s biggest downside.
Other options – Joey Votto, Jose Abreu, Greg Bird, Justin Smoak, Gary Sanchez
Mitch Garver, MIN ($2000)
A min-priced catcher sighting! Garver is not a necessity due to the nature of the pitching, but he can certainly be used to get you even MORE bats on this slate. The Twins have an IRT of 5.1 runs which is near the top of the slate, and Garver has hit as high as fifth against lefties (sixth or seventh is more likely with Sano back). He’s not a tremendous hitter but Hector Santiago has allowed 1.88 HR/9 to RHB over the last three years and is backed by a lousy bullpen.
Other options – Cody Bellinger, Jose Martinez, Justin Bour, Yuli Gurriel
Catcher values – Evan Gattis, Robinson Chirinos, Russell Martin
Brian Dozier, MIN ($4100)
Dozier is a big bat today that’s worth his price tag in all formats. He gets all the same matchup upside I just mentioned in Garver’s blurb, but comes with a much better skillset of his own, particularly against lefties. Over the past three season, Dozier has battered LHP for a .377 wOBA and .262 ISO, and Minnesota plays well for righty power. Hector Santiago and his 2.08 HR/9 allowed this year are no match.
Other options – Jose Altuve, D.J. LeMahieu
Jed Lowrie, OAK ($3400)
I wish Lowrie were a bit cheaper, but he’s hitting from the left which is his better side and gets the friendly matchup and environment in Texas. Lowrie’s price tag doesn’t offer extreme value, but he’ll hit third on the road for the top IRT of the night an has a 131 wRC+ and .185 ISO (both are career highs). He’s fine if you can’t afford Dozier.
Other options – Eduardo Nunez, Jedd Gyorko, Rougned Odor
Miguel Sano, MIN ($3600)
Going back to the Twins, Sano looks like a much easier fit over the other top option here (Arenado, who is $1200 more expensive). I’ve already harped on the matchup against Hector Santiago, and Sano has a Dozier-esque .370 wOBA and .256 ISO against LHP over the last three years. They are a fearsome tandem in the infield tonight and worth playing in all formats.
Other options – Nolan Arenado, Alex Bregman, Yangervis Solarte
Adrian Beltre, TEX ($2700)
Beltre rewarded my patience yesterday with a big homer that solidified all my cash lineups finishing in the money, and I have no problem going back to the well again tonight. I think Texas is the sneakiest stack on this slate tonight as many will shy away from Daniel Mengden’s early success. However, Mengden is outpitching his peripherals (2.91 ERA, 3.98 xFIP) and his inability to strike out batters (5.81 K/9) will not play well in the major leagues for long. Throw in a tough park environment in Texas and there’s reason to predict that regression hits him hard tonight. Vegas isn’t buying it either, as the Rangers have a 5.2 IRT which is second only to their opponent, Oakland. As for Beltre, he has over a 40% hard hit rate since returning from the DL.
Other options – Eduardo Escobar, Matt Chapman, Zack Cozart, Luis Valbuena
Carlos Correa, HOU ($3900)
Wade LeBlanc has done a frustratingly good job of limiting hard contact this year, but we’re still talking about someone who has allowed 1.45 HR/9 to RHB over the past four years while largely pitching in big ballparks. He gets a huge downgrade going to Houston this evening and facing the Astros who rank first in wRC+ against LHP. Correa has been especially good against lefties over the past three years, posting a .373 wOBA and .206 ISO.
Other options – Xander Bogaerts, Trevor Story, Didi Gregorius
Marcus Semien, OAK ($3300)
Semien was a mega-bust last night in a cake matchup, but he’s still too cheap for hitting first or second on the road in Texas. Bartolo Colon’s HR ways aren’t limited to just left-handers, and Semien has a very usable .169 ISO against same-handed pitching since the beginning of last season. Colon has allowed 15 ER over his last three starts and is backed by a Texas bullpen that ranks 26th in xFIP.
Other options – Jurickson Profar, Jose Peraza, Scott Kingery
Mike Trout, LAA ($5400)
Trout is the best hitter on the planet, and he’s rocking a 41% hard hit rate over his last 15 games. The park environment of Los Angeles is not the greatest but that’s never bothered Trout before, and Ian Kennedy has allowed 1.78 HR/9 after allowing 1.99 HR/9 last season. Trout is a monster against same-handed pitching with a .424 wOBA and .245 ISO against same-handed pitching over the last three years. He’s a viable play in all formats.
Other options – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, JD Martinez, Charlie Blackmon, George Springer, Nomar Mazara, Tommy Pham, Marcell Ozuna, Khris Davis
Carlos Gonzalez, COL ($2700)
I was late to the party on the CarGo train yesterday, but I’m not missing him today as long as he’s hitting cleanup again. The Rockies’ IRT of 4.5 strikes me as low even away from Coors Field. Reds’ pitcher Sal Romano has a 5.60 FIP and has allowed 1.65 HR/9, and he’s backed by a horrid bullpen that is missing their best pitcher by far in Raisel Iglesias.
Other options – Shin Soo Choo, Joey Gallo, Matt Joyce, Stephen Piscotty, Jesse Winker, Teoscar Hernandez, Curtis Granderson, Kevin Pillar, Joc Pederson, Starling Marte, Derek Dietrich, Aaron Altherr