It was a polarizing night for me, as my cash lineup on FD went absolutely ballistic with a 205, which my main DK lineup crashed and burned (thanks Strasburg and Snell). Tonight we’re right back at it with 12 games on the main slate, and a lot of interesting mid-tier SPs if you’re not feeling Sale’s price tag. Let’s get to it, and make sure to follow me on twitter @jac3600.
Chris Sale, BOS ($11,500)
If you’re looking for that 70-point potential out of your SP, Sale is your guy. The issue here is that there is significantly less opportunity cost that usual with several mid-tier options, so Sale is not necessarily a lock for cash. Sale is a -235 favorite with a 3.3 IRTA, and the Royals have a 24.8% K rate against LHP which is is the tenth highest in the league. Sale has had his run prevention issues this year but he has an elite 34.3% K rate with a 14.5% swinging strike rate.
Other options – Charlie Morton, James Paxton, Mike Minor
German Marquez, COL ($9000)
I REALLY want this pick to be Carlos Carrasco, but the Twins are first in ISO against RHP by a ton (.248), and Carrasco has really been plagued by the longball this season (1.94 HR/9 allowed). This leaves Marquez, who has once again been money on the road, and has also posted a 13.2% swinging strike rate and a 53.3% GB rate. The Cubs are a tough matchup against RHP (sixth in wOBA), but the wind doesn’t look to be a factor today in Wrigley and the Cubs have one of the lower IRTs on the slate at 3.8 runs.
Other options – Carlos Carrasco, Jimmy Nelson (pending pitch count), Yu Darvish, Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani
Freddie Freeman, ATL ($4300)
PNC Park is not the ideal park environment, but (like yesterday) it isn’t stopping Vegas from pegging the Braves with in IRT of five runs or higher. Joe Musgrove has a 4.67 SIERA this season and Freeman is once again crushing righties this year for a .424 wOBA and a 52% HHR. Musgrove has only a 15.6% K rate against LHP since the beginning of last year, and is backed by a terrible bullpen.
Other options – Gary Sanchez, Luke Voit, Paul Goldschmidt, Peter Alonso, Trey Mancini
Eric Thames, MIL ($3000)
Thames’ value is going to depend on his lineup spot, as he’s hit anywhere from second to seventh when he’s in there. If he does, he’s a huge upside play for a Brewers’ lineup with an IRT of 5.5. Sandy Alcantara has potential as a pitching prospect, but he’s just not major league ready yet. He’s also really struggled against lefties, allowing a 5.79 xFIP and a 13.4% BB rate, and Thames has a .217 ISO and a 50% HHR against RHP this season.
Other options – Matt Olson, Joey Votto, Ji-Man Choi, Tyler Austin
Catcher values – Yasmani Grandal, Robinson Chirinos, Matt Wieters
Mike Moustakas, MIL ($4000)
This is the same idea behind what I just wrote, with a much more favorable upside and lineup stability (he won’t get pinch hit for no matter what). On top of his .278 ISO since the beginning of last year, he’s also crushing baseballs over the last 15 games for a 40.6% HHR. He’s fully priced, but viable in all formats.
Other options – DJ LeMahieu
Brandon Lowe, TB ($3400)
Lowe is another one whose lineup spot is tough to predict, but also one who has immense power upside. He’s sporting a .261 ISO and 44% HHR against RHP this season, and is facing Spencer Turnbull whose 2.84 ERA is backed by a 4.44 xFIP. The Detroit bullpen also has a 5.31 FIP this year which is leading to a 5.2 IRT for the Rays.
Other options – Derek Dietrich, Brock Holt, Hanser Alberto
Rafael Devers, BOS ($3700)
Devers is still a bit too cheap on FD at under 4k given the fact that he’s been arguably the best hitter on the Red Sox this year. Devers has a .401 wOBA and .198 ISO against RHP this season and is taking on Jake Junis who has a 4.58 SIERA and has given up a 42% HHR. Devers is also hot lately with a 31% HHR over his last 15 games, and he now hits cleanup. The Red Sox have an IRT of 5.5 runs and Devers should be right in the thick of it.
Other options – Matt Chapman, Eugenio Suarez, Renato Nunez
Travis Shaw, MIL ($2200)
We all know that it was ridiculous that Keston Huira was sent down in favor of Shaw who has been downright awful this season, but DFS doesn’t care about long-term effects. Shaw is near minimum priced and he had two hits yesterday. We’re also talking about a guy who has a .234 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. He hit seventh last night, but his “good” performance last night might be enough to at least net him one better spot.
Other options – Matt Carpenter, Josh Donaldson, Yuli Gurriel, Tommy LaStella, Jose Ramirez
Alex Bregman, HOU ($4300)
Houston was the sneaky stack that came through yesterday, and I’m looking at them again in a similar light. Mike Leake has impeccable control (4.5% BB rate), but little else is working for him this season. He’s allowing a ton of flyballs and Houston has the lowest K rate against RHP with the second highest ISO. Bregman has speed, and has also posted a .299 ISO against same-handed pitching this season.
Other options – Francisco Lindor, Gleyber Torres, Paul DeJong, Elvis Andrus
Kevin Newman, PIT ($2700)
Seeing Newman’s name here should tell you that there is a lot of opportunity cost at SS today, and you’ll want to pay up (the above guys work fine if you can’t afford Bregman). Newman has been leading off lately for the Pirates, and at least makes a decent punt against Kevin Gausman who has really struggled this year to a 4.48 SIERA. Pittsburgh is a low run-producing team, but they only strike out at a 20% rate against RHP.
Other options – Marcus Semien, Brandon Crawford, Willy Adames
Andrew Benintendi, BOS ($3700)
To be clear, the raw projection of Benintendi’s two outfield mates are ahead of his, so they’re REALLY the top plays here. However, the fact that Benny is $600-700 cheaper than them really gives him an edge when finding the best per dollar play in the OF. Benintendi will lead off for a Red Sox team with an IRT of 5.5 runs, and his real appeal is how bad Junis has been in the platoon split this season (.435 wOBA, 44.1% HHR allowed to LHB). Benintendi only has a 20.2% HHR his last 15 games, but he’s a solid cash option with a power/speed combo.
Other options – Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Christian Yelich, Mike Trout, Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham, Avisail Garcia, Ronald Acuna, Michael Brantley, Shin Soo Choo, Hunter Pence
Derek Fisher, HOU ($2900)
Fisher was a core play for me yesterday and will be again since his price hasn’t moved. Fisher has been leading off for the Astros with Springer and Altuve on the shelf, and he has speed along with a .267 ISO against RHP in limited time this year. The 41.2% K rate against RHP is moderately concerning, but not against a pitcher like Mike Leake that has no clue how to miss bats anymore. Lock him in at under 3k.
Other options – Aaron Hicks, Clint Frazier, Brett Gardner, Dexter Fowler, Danny Santana, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Shohei Ohtani, Nelson Cruz, Mallex Smith, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Gregory Polanco, Curtis GrandersonFantasy Baseball