Yesterday’s mess of a slate is over, and we have a full 15-gamer tonight complete with as deep a pitching slate as I’ve seen. I’m still inclined to pay all the way up for Scherzer (see below), but lineups may tell a different tale later on. I will be fully immersed in chat with our FTA+ subs tonight, and be sure to follow me on twitter @jac3600.
Max Scherzer, WAS ($12,000)
I know we have other aces that are cheaper, but Max looks like the best matchup I’ve seen this year, let alone tonight. The Rays are traveling to Washington and losing the DH, they traded Denard Span, and have an IRT of a meager 2.5 runs. Unbelievably, Max is even better than last year with a 38.4% K rate and a swinging strike rate of 17.5%. The most feared batter Scherzer has to deal with in this Brad Miller, which tells you all you need to know. Here’s my prediction – 7 IP, 1 ER, 13 K.
Other options – Corey Kluber, James Paxton
Carlos Martinez, STL ($8200)
We have a few aces returning from the DL tonight (Martinez and Madison Bumgarner) who are both vastly underpriced for their skill sets. They’re both better suited for GPPs with the high opportunity cost at SP, but Martinez could really pay off his price tag and then some at $8200. He’s been dominant in his career against RHB, and is facing a Marlins team that ranks 28th in wRC+ against RHP and really struggles to get more than three lefties in their regular lineup.
Other options – Madison Bumgarner, Sean Newcomb, Kyle Hendricks, Andrew Heaney, Ross Stripling, , Joe Musgrove, Dallas Keuchel, Anthony DeSclafani
Gary Sanchez, NYY ($3500)
The Yankees are third on the IRT rankings chat as of this writing, but they’re still rocking a solid 5.4 mark and all the righty bats are firmly in play against Marco Estrada who has been really bad this season. Estrada’s changeup is rough on lefty bats but righties feast on it, and Estrada has allowed a .377 wOBA and 1.72 HR/9 to same-handed bats. Sanchez is slumping a bit right now, but he’ll have a premier lineup spot for a fearsome lineup. He’s in play in all formats.
Other options – Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Matt Adams, Matt Olson, Justin Smoak
Mitch Moreland, BOS ($3300)
The Red Sox are sitting in a phenomenal spot tonight with an IRT of 5.5 runs, even though injuries have thinned out their stack upside a bit (most notably to Mookie Betts). Moreland will be locked and loaded into either the third or fourth spot in the order and is facing off against Artie Lewicki (which translated into the Tigers bullpen). The reason the upside is sky high here is because Detroit’s pen is already ranked last in both FIP and ISO allowed, and they just spent all their arms in a doubleheader yesterday against the Yankees. Moreland is underpriced for the upside he brings tonight.
Other options – Greg Bird, Miguel Cabrera, Cody Bellinger, Justin Bour, Kendrys Morales
Catcher values – Willson Contreras, Devin Mesoraco, Russell Martin, Jonathan Lucroy
Ozzie Albies, ATL ($4100)
This is strictly a tournament play, as the park shift is a big negative and the Braves power bats have gone silent over the last ten days in terms of hard contact. However, Albies still is a power/speed beats with 20 combined homers and steals and is facing off against Jordan Lyles who has allowed a .373 wOBA to LHB over the past three years. He’s also backed by a bad Padres bullpen outside of Brad Hand.
Other options – Jose Altuve, Whit Merrfield, Jed Lowrie, DJ LeMahieu
Eduardo Nunez, BOS ($2900)
I’m inclined to use Nunez for cash at a sub-3k price unless a better punt opens. He’s not an elite hitter but he does have speed upside and has been hitting fifth or sixth as of late with all the injuries for the Red Sox. He’ll have extra opportunities for RBIs hitting in the middle of the order and the Detroit pitching staff is one that should be fully attacked tonight.
Other options – Asdrubal Cabrera, Jonathan Schoop, Jedd Gyorko, Devon Travis
Eugenio Suarez, CIN ($3600)
Kyle Freeland has done a magnificent job of limiting hard contact this year, particularly since he pitches half his games in Coors Field. However, Cincinnati is only a small step down as far as hitting environments go, and Suarez has a .398 wOBA and .250 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year. He’s got a 33% hard hit rate over his last 15 games and should hit fourth.
Other options – Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, Matt Carpenter, Yangervis Solarte
Matt Chapman, OAK ($2900)
You don’t have to worry about spending up at 3B, because Matt Chapman is a gift. The A’s believe it or not, have the highest IRT of the night at 5.6 runs (yes, they surpass both the Yankees and Boston on this slate). Their opponent is Matt Moore, who has been absolutely horrendous this season with a 7.85 ERA while walking almost five batters per nine innings. It’s projected to 95 degrees at gametime, and the ball should fly. Since the beginning of last year, Chapman has a .184 ISO against LHP.
Other options – Rafael Devers, Miguel Andujar, Adrian Beltre, Isaiah Kiner-Falefa
Manny Machado, BAL ($4300)
Machado is having an amazing year with a .426 wOBA and .305 ISO, and is showing no signs of slowing down. He’s actually better against same-handed pitching, but Jason Vargas is awful. He’s currently allowing 2.13 HR/9 this season while posting an 8.53 ERA, and the Mets bullpen is 29th in xFIP over the last ten days with five blown saves. Machado is viable in all formats, but I’d prefer to save with Semien in cash (see below).
Other options – Francisco Lindor, Didi Gregorius, Xander Bogaerts, Trevor Story
Marcus Semien, OAK ($3400)
Semien will bat first or second on the road in Texas, and he makes by far the most sense to me in cash. Semien has a .183 ISO against LHP over the past four years, and gets the wonderful matchup against Matt Moore we’ve already spoken of. I’d honestly pay upwards of $4000 for him in cash games today, so the discount we seem to be getting is really significant, especially if we’re paying all the way up for Scherzer (which I plan on).
Other options – Jurickson Profar, Jose Peraza, Nick Ahmed, Brock Holt
Giancarlo Stanton/Aaron Judge, NYY ($4700/$5100)
Once again, this Yankees duo tops the OF projections. Also once again, I’d prefer Stanton in cash at the discounted price tag to Judge, and he’ll probably be higher owned anyway after Judge was 0-9 with eight K’s in the doubleheader yesterday. As I mentioned before, Estrada has been far worse against same-handed hitting due to his reliance on his changeup, and he’s allowed 1.84 HR/9 this season. Both Judge’s and Stanton’s hard hit rates are elevated over the last 15 games.
Other options – Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Charlie Blackmon, Andrew Benintendi, JD Martinez, Michael Brantley, Kyle Schwarber, Khris Davis, Tommy Pham, Justin Upton
Michael Conforto/Jay Bruce, NYM ($2900/$2500)
The Mets only have a 4.4 IRT, but they really shouldn’t be ignored on this slate against Alex Cobb who has looked broken this season. Cobb’s projections might look a little more positive given the fact that he gets a park upgrade and will avoid the DH, but he’s got a 6.80 ERA and has allowed 1.75 HR/9 while striking out less than five batters per nine innings. Conforto and Bruce both have above-average platoon splits, and are viable in all formats at sub-3k prices.
Other options – Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner, Teoscar Hernandez, Joey Gallo, Delino DeShields, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Trey Mancini, Chad Pinder, Stephen Piscotty, Ian Happ, Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, Carlos Gonzalez