The high-powered offenses in the hot weather came through last night, and I unfortunately wasted too much of my money on Gerrit Cole to tap into the full potential. We’re going to have these decisions to make all week as the heat wave strikes the country, so keep this in mind going forward. Tonight is more of the same on FD, as you’re going to have to decide between Chris Sale and the bats, so let’s get to it. We have two slates today, so get your DFS fun in! I’m on twitter @jac3600.
Chris Sale, BOS ($12,000)
Sale blows away the field on this medium-sized slate, even against the Yankees who rank second in wRC+ against LHP. Ultimately Sale is worthy of this spend in all formats simply due to his K upside (35.9% K rate since the beginning of last year). The Yankees do strike out more than the league average, so Sale should pay off his tag even if the high-powered offense of the Yanks gets to him for a couple of runs. Kenta Maeda (the only other viable cash spend) is so much cheaper that he’s in the conversation for cash too, but keep in mind that he doesn’t have Sale’s innings safety.
Other options – None
Kenta Maeda, LAD ($8900)
The rest of the pitching options are trash after these two, so you’re paying for one of them in cash. Maeda certainly has K upside of his own (27.5% K rate this year), and the Rockies are dead last in wRC+ against RHP (by a wide margin). Maeda has the lowest IRTA at 3.3 runs and he’s a -185 favorite. The only knock here is that manager Dave Roberts is perhaps the most unpredictable skipper in the league, and the quick hook could come at any time. I’m still OK deploying Maeda in cash if you’re uncomfortable with how much offense you have to sacrifice with Sale.
Other options – Felix Hernandez, Carlos Rodon, Joey Lucchesi, German Marquez, Luke Weaver
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI ($4600)
Goldy is not going to be happy for June to end, as he’s massacred the ball for a 36% hard rate for the month (that’s 30 days!!). He doesn’t have the platoon edge which is where we usually look to target him, but Derek Rodriguez is allowing a 38% hard hit rate since being called and is getting park downgrade going to Arizona.
Other options – Freddie Freeman, Cody Bellinger, Mitch Moreland, Brandon Belt
Jose Abreu, CHW ($3400)
Abreu seems like the clear choice in cash games at a way too low price tag. He has a .219 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last season, and Bartolo Colon has allowed 1.95 HR/9 to same-handed hitters in that span. The forecast for Arlington is supposed to be 100 degrees tonight, and the O/U is 10.5 runs.
Other options – Eric Hosmer, Matt Davidson, Lucas Duda
Catcher values – Buster Posey, Robinson Chirinos, Yasmani Grandal
TOP PLAY AND TOP VALUE
Yoan Moncada, CHW ($3400)
There is only one name to consider in cash games at second and that’s Moncada. He gets the same park context mentioned in Abreu’s blurb, and Colon has been just as bad against LHB lately (and worse over his career). Moncada’s hard hit rate is at a robust 35% over his last 15 games, and he has a .208 ISO against RHP with speed upside at the top of the lineup as well. Lock him in once again.
Other options – Dee Gordon, Jurickson Profar, Rougned Odor, Daniel DeScalso, Alen Hanson
Jake Lamb, ARI ($3700)
Lamb gets a positive matchup against Dereck Rodriguez, and he’s registered a .234 ISO against RHP over the last three years. Despite a down year, Lamb is still consistently in there hitting third against RHP, and the Giants bullpen behind Rodriguez is below average. I’m really not comfortable with Lamb’s price tag, but the 3B position in general is rough on FD.
Other options – Adrian Beltre, Justin Turner
Mike Moustakas, KC ($3100)
Right now my main cash target is Moustakas at a really low price tag. No Royals are really enticing in cash given the overall lousiness of their lineup as a whole, but Moose is the one bright spot as he’s maintaining the same power he had last season where he racked up 38 homers. Felix Hernandez has been a disaster against LHP over the last two years, allowing a 39% hard hit rate and a .217 ISO, so it’s fine ignoring the Royals’ IRT of 3.5 here for the one good Royal hitter.
Other options – Kyle Seager, Yolmer Sanchez, Cory Spangenberg
Elvis Andrus, TEX ($3500)
The Rangers came through in a big way last night, and my GPP stack recouped a lot of the money I lost in cash. They’re the top offense once again tonight with an IRT of 5.2 runs even though their opponent is much more difficult in Carlos Rodon. The big lefty’s K and GB rates have not been up to par since returning from the DL, and the intense heat in Texas won’t do him any favors. Andrus is starting to come around since he returned from injury, and his price is decent on FD.
Other options – Xander Bogaerts, Jean Segura
Chris Taylor, LAD ($3100)
There are no mind-blowing options at SS which is why I’m likely to pay up a bit for Andrus (who at least has the environment and IRT going for him). Taylor is OK if he continues to lead off, as German Marquez is a reverse-split pitcher (.181 ISO allowed to RHB over the last two years) and the Rockies bullpen is currently ranked 29th in xFIP.
Other options – Tim Anderson, Brandon Crawford, Jordy Mercer
Mookie Betts, BOS ($4800)
The strength of the Yankees’ bullpen (who is rested after CC’s gem last night) keeps the Red Sox hitters from being strong cash options, but you have to love them in GPP against Sonny Gray’s immense home/road splits. Gray has been terrific away from Yankee Stadium, but he has a 7.22 ERA and .400 wOBA allowed at home this year. Betts is a legit MVP candidate with speed upside, as is an excellent GPP option.
Other options – JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Charlie Blackmon, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger, Shin Soo Choo
Avisail Garcia, CHW ($2500)
Garcia once again looks like a cash lock at his price. He’s hitting second on the road in the best hitting environment on the slate, and has a .171 ISO against same-handed pitching since the beginning of 2015. I realize that I’m pretty much fully endorsing three White Sox as cash staples, but that’s the nature of a smaller slate, and they have an IRT pushing five runs against Bartolo Colon. There are worse risks to take.
Other options – Nomar Mazara, Delino DeShields, Joey Gallo, Marcell Ozuna, Tommy Pham, Harrison Bader, Joc Pederson, Yasiel Puig, Wil Myers, Travis Jankowski, Denard Span